High Risk High Reward: Kyle Pitts' Offense Could Stall His Breakout

Kyle Pitts is currently the No. 3 TE off the board, going on average at pick No. 31. That is a lot of faith to place in a young TE, especially considering the established, veteran talent (Darren Waller, George Kittle) going after him. Pitts has the draft pedigree and talent to justify this ADP, but there are definitely circumstances present that make this ADP extremely high risk.

It’s easy to see why fantasy managers are hyped about Pitts. He was a Top 10 pick who caught 68 passes last season for 1,026 yards, the second-most yards ever for a rookie TE behind Mike Ditka. He was PFF’s fifth-ranked TE (80.3), and he is now the clear-cut top target in the Falcons’ pass attack. He led the team in targets last year with 110, and that figures to go up with 146 targets being vacated by Russell Gage and Calvin Ridley. Pitts also is capable of high-end efficiency; he led all TEs in Average Depth of Target (10.8) and yards per reception (15.1), and was third at the position in yards per target (9.3).

So what’s the problem with the ADP? Well, the main reason is he’s about to experience a major QB downgrade. Matt Ryan may have only been PFF’s 17th-graded QB, but he is a much better passer than Marcus Mariota, who hasn’t started an NFL game since 2019. Mariota’s career-high for attempts is 453, which he achieved in 2017. Matt Ryan’s career-low attempts were 434, his rookie season, and he has notched 500+ attempts in 12 consecutive seasons. Pitts was the No. 1 option last season in an offense that passed far more than this iteration will and he still drew just 110 targets. While that’s a decent number, it pales in comparison to Mark Andrews’ 154 targets and Travis Kelce’s 134, the players he needs to be compared to with this ADP. Pitts can expect an uptick in target share even with fewer overall pass attempts, but they’ll be lower quality targets.

For Pitts to truly justify this ADP, he’s going to need to score more touchdowns. And after scoring just one last season, he’d seem to be a strong candidate for positive regression in that area. But, beware once again. The red zone and goal line pass attempts are likely to go down with Mariota under center. He’s not as prolific a passer as Matt Ryan, and he’s also a legitimate threat on the ground when the Falcons are near the goal line. He also has to contend with Cordarrelle Patterson, who scored 11 touchdowns, six from 10 yards or closer, and rookie Drake London, who was drafted specifically because of his contested catch skills.

At the end of the day, Pitts is a special talent, but the offensive situation for him is not ideal for a breakout. Could it happen? Yes, but at this ADP it needs to for him to justify it, let alone provide value. By FantasyPros ADP, by drafting Pitts at No. 30 you are passing on WRs like Tee Higgins, and RBs like James Conner, Antonio Gibson and Ezekiel Elliott. Alternatively, you could take one of those players and draft Waller a round later. I am excited to see what Pitts can do, but unfortunately it’s unlikely to be on my teams unless this ADP drops a bit.