High Risk High Reward: Joe Burrow Could Be Great And Still Hurt Your Team

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback. He figures to be a very consistent performer for fantasy managers, especially with the potent WR corps he has at his disposal. But despite his talent, proven production, and draft pedigree, his current ADP of No. 54 overall is a big risk on draft day.

Last season Burrow was excellent. He threw 34 touchdowns against only 14 interceptions, piled up 4,611 yards and completed 70.4% of his passes. He averaged nine adjusted yards per pass attempt, the best mark in football, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are going to encourage him to keep it up. All signs point to Burrow continuing to keep it up, but 2021’s success came with a far more reasonable ADP. Now he’s the sixth QB off the board, so he would likely have to improve upon his stellar season to justify it, and that makes him a precarious choice this high.

Burrow might’ve won people titles with his Weeks 15 and 16 volcanic eruptions – he averaged 485.5 yards and four touchdowns in those games – but it wasn’t all strawberries and balloons. Burrow also had a four-week stretch in which he averaged 230 yards and less than one touchdown per game. He had Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd for those games. He’s also at high risk for injury. We saw him blow his knee out as a rookie behind a shaky offensive line, and that line hasn’t been properly addressed since. The Bengals passed on Penei Sewell in the draft, and while Chase was an obviously great pick, Burrow still has to run for his life on the regular.

Burrow was sacked 51 times last year, the most in the NFL, and Cincinnati’s 9.1% adjusted sack rate was the second-worst in football. They ranked as the second-worst pass blocking unit on Football Outsiders, and they were PFF’s fourth-worst rated pass blocking unit. We also saw Burrow’s rushing numbers dip dramatically coming off his knee injury. As a rookie, Burrow notched 3.7 rushing attempts per game, which dropped to 2.5 last year. That’s probably a plus for his health, but QBs with bankable rushing production have an advantage for fantasy managers, and those who don’t have to be prolific on a weekly basis with their arms. Burrow can do that, but it'd be nice to be able to count on his offensive line to keep him alive.

Despite the shaky line play, Burrow was still pretty consistent. He threw two or more touchdown passes 11 times in 17 games and eclipsed 280 yards eight times. He also carries blowup game potential, throwing for 400+ yards three times, with two of them coming in the fantasy playoffs including a 525-yard game. None of this post is to say that Burrow is a declining player, or a “bust.” It’s simply that without rushing upside, Burrow has produce major yardage and keep up his sophomore spike in TD%. With a legitimately terrible offensive line, and a very effective running back in Joe Mixon, Burrow’s ADP is going to make you pass on guys like Mike Williams, AJ Dillon or Marquise Brown. He’s even going ahead of Kyler Murray, who has a significantly higher rushing baseline. At that ADP, the tradeoff isn’t apparently favorable, so he’s someone who could both play well AND hurt your roster. Beware of this ADP, and if it’s still here on draft day, don’t feel pressured to reach.