Know the Risk: Unsafe Picks With High Reward

Draft day is about risk vs. reward. You won’t win your league without assuming some risk, and many times a lot, but at certain points the risk can outweigh the reward. These three RBs have big upside, but their risk might be too significant at their current ADPs.

All ADP date is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

James Robinson, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 44)

Robinson was a revelation in 2020, an undrafted rookie RB on a team that won one game, who morphed into a lead back with more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage and total domination of the team’s workload. He rushed 240 times, saw 60 targets and scored 10 total touchdowns. At age 22, he seems like he’d be a no-brainer pick in the first two rounds, but the Jaguars’ organization seems to reject the notion of Robinson as a focal point. They got the first overall pick, wisely spending it on a franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence, who should instantly decrease Jacksonville’s reliance on the running game. They then spent their second first round pick on Lawrence’s college teammate, Travis Etienne, a dynamic dual threat RB who should be viewed as an existential threat to Robinson’s fantasy value.

The early narrative is that Etienne is being viewed as a mostly pass-catching option, which he excelled at while at Clemson. That alone severely undercuts Robinson, who derived a lot of value – 344 yards, three touchdowns – in the passing game. But first round capital is nothing to sneeze at, especially at the RB position. Running backs are typically viewed as expendable, so to use a first round pick on one means the Jaguars feel Etienne is special. His college production backs that up; he’s had three straight seasons of 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and scored 78 career TDs at the collegiate level. Robinson absolutely has proven his talent and capability to produce, and it’s likely he’ll give fantasy owners value in the early going as an early down option. But if the late-season emergences of Cam Akers and Jonathan Taylor prove anything, it’s that NFL teams want to get their first rounders on the field ASAP.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos (ADP: 63)

Gordon has more security than Robinson as far as his veteran status and current contract go, but Denver spent significant capital (2nd round) on their own rookie RB, Javonte Williams, who has turned heads this spring. Gordon was productive from a fantasy standpoint in 2020, scoring double-digit touchdowns for the fourth time in the last five seasons, rushing for 986 yards and posting 32 receptions for 158 yards. He also rushed for 4.6 yards per carry, only the second time in his career he cracked four.

The bad news? He checked in as PFF’s No. 32 RB (72.5), grading out especially poorly as a receiver (36.4) and pass blocker (41.7). While he ran the ball as well as he ever has, the Broncos are loaded with pass-catchers (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Noah Fant), and expended a high pick on Williams, who projects as a high-end receiving option (25 receptions, 305 yards as a junior). Gordon’s season could go one of two ways. Scenario one sees Gordon dominate touches, as the Broncos run him into the ground in his final season under contract. He cedes some passing down work to Williams, but continues his efficiency from 2020, and scores 10+ touchdowns again.

Or…Williams flashes in his limited early work, slowly eating away at Gordon’s opportunities. He regresses into the high threes in yards per carry, where he’s lived most of his career, while his receiving work dwindles. He becomes a goal line specialist, making him unpredictable from week to week and potentially sinking both his and Williams’ fantasy value. Sadly, this is the likelier scenario based on what Gordon’s career, and it doesn’t help that he hasn’t participated in OTAs. Williams is a very talented rookie, and going at pick No. 79 in half-PPR formats. I’d prefer him to Gordon at their current ADPs.

Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals (ADP: 64)

Edmonds’ appeal is obvious in the Cardinals’ offense, which should be among the highest-scoring in fantasy. The problem is we don’t truly know if he will lead the backfield in touches. Edmonds ranked 41st last season per PFF, grading especially high as a receiver (77). That’ll come in handy in 2021 for fantasy owners, especially in half and full-PPR formats, but the addition of James Conner shouldn’t be a welcome one for Edmonds fans. Conner’s merits were discussed here, but to briefly recap, he has experience as a bell cow. He toted the ball 215 times in 2018 when Le’Veon Bell held out for an entire season, piling up 1,470 yards from scrimmage and scoring 13 touchdowns. In two injury-riddled seasons since, he’s failed to meet that lofty standard, but he has still proven adept at finding the end zone, particularly in close. In 2019 and 2020, Conner has scored 10 rushing touchdowns, seven of which have come the three yard line or closer.

Edmonds, on the other hand, has never logged 100 carries in a season, nor topped five rushing touchdowns. Conner might not have delivered on his high ADPs the past two campaigns, but that shouldn’t obscure why the Cardinals have brough him in. Conner is going to be the primary rusher here, with Edmonds continuing to excel in the passing game. That definitely lowers the ceiling on both players, but Edmonds is staring down the barrel of a good James White-esque season, and shouldn’t be going 22 picks ahead of his backfield mate.