Lost Shine: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Hate Has Gone Too Far

Few players entered 2020 Week 1 with more hype than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs’ first round pick last year who was allegedly hand-picked by Patrick Mahomes. CEH has lost luster since then, after performing like a merely good fantasy RB rather than a great one. Known as a gifted pass-catcher out of the backfield, he’s currently the 19th RB off the board per Fantasy Pros, and being drafted as the No. 32 player overall in half-PPR formats. He’s shaping up as one of the best values for 2021.

The main reason fantasy owners grew disillusioned with him wasn’t his talent, or even  his usage. CEH only scored five touchdowns last season, a disappointing number for a lead back in the NFL’s best offense. The Chiefs scored 53 rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2020, so Edwards-Helaire made up just about 10% of them. That’s just unlucky, as CEH was on the field for 60% or more of the offensive snaps in every game from Week 1-6, and then 50% or more all but once from Weeks 7-11. Touchdowns were an issue, but when he received work, he was highly productive. He rushed for 138 yards in Week 1 vs. the Texans (25 carries), 161 yards vs. the Bills (26 carries) and he combined for 100+ yards from scrimmage three times in those early, high-usage weeks.

CEH may not have posted incredibly snap % figures after Week 6, likely due to some issues converting in short yardage, but he still accounted for 65% of the Chiefs’ RB points, a larger percentage than Aaron Jones or Chris Carson put up for the Packers and Seahawks, respectively, and 68% of the team’s rushing attempts. He finished 2020 with an 80.7 PFF rushing grade, and a 66.6 receiving grade, solidifying his continued future as a three-down back.They have let go of Le’Veon Bell this offseason, and made no significant additions aside from injury-prone Jerick McKinnon. He’ll once again be ahead of Darrel Williams, and in no danger of ceding additional snaps.

There is no guarantee CEH’s touchdown outlook will significantly improve – Mahomes is the best QB in football, and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are nuclear weapons anywhere on the field, especially in the red zone – but there’s room for optimism. For starters, Kansas City posted a 51% Power Success rate per Football Outsiders, the worst mark in the NFL. They’ve attempted to address their offensive line issues by signing Gs Joe Thuney and Austin Blythe, as well as RT Mike Remmers. There’s also the general volatility of touchdowns; last season Hill scored 17 touchdowns and Kelce scored 11, both career-highs. Melvin Gordon is a much different kind of back, but he scored zero touchdowns as a rookie and has scored double-digit touchdowns in four of the next five seasons.

There are much bigger question marks around some of the backs being drafted ahead of him. The No. 14 RB J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) and No. 15 back Josh Jacobs (Raiders) both have significant competition in their backfields – Kenyan Drake and Gus Edwards, respectively – as well as reduced roles on passing downs. No. 17 D’Andre Swift has downgraded at QB (Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff), and seen the team’s top two receivers leave town. No. 18 Miles Sanders was a much more inconsistent mess last season for the Eagles, and his new full-time QB Jalen Hurts severely threatens his goal line workload. All of the aforementioned backs performed better than CEH in short yardage, but CEH’s role is better defined, he’s in a superior offense to all of them, and he’s not coming off the field when the ball is going in the air. The floor is higher, and the ceiling might be higher too. That’s value.