Exciting Early Sleepers: Carson Wentz's Draft Stock Finally Falls
I am prepared for ridicule, but in the early stages of draft preparation, Colts QB Carson Wentz is standing out as a major opportunity for value. As I duck tomatoes and let jeers bounce off me as if I don’t have feelings, I’ll make my case.
Let’s get the bad out of the way, since that’s freshest in our minds. He was benched last season, posted a career-worst 57.4% completion rate, threw 15 interceptions, posted a 3.4% INT rate, a 49.6 QBR and saw his QB rating drop all the way to 72.8. He graded as PFF’s No. 32 QB in 2020, checking in behind Tua Tagovailoa, Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater. The guy was not good. He also didn’t have a ton of help.
The Eagles spent the majority of the season without Alshon Jeffery, and injuries further decimated their receiving corps. At no point in the year did Wentz have his full complement, with TEs Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert both missing time, as well as WRs DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor. Greg Ward led the team in targets with 79…enough said about his supporting cast. Wentz was also running for his life behind the NFL’s second-worst pass-blocking offensive line. The Eagles allowed a league-high 65 sacks, and finished with a 9.4% adjusted sack rate, one-tenth of a point off from the NFL-worst Texans. In Indianapolis, Wentz will helm an offense while being protected by last year’s seventh-best pass-blocking line, per Football Outsiders. That can make all the difference in the world, because at his best Wentz is capable of elite fantasy production.
He was an MVP candidate in 2017, throwing 33 touchdowns against just seven picks and posting a 7.5% TD percentage. In 2018 he was even better, throwing for nearly 280 yards per game. 2019 marked the second time he’d managed to play a full 16-game slate, and he eclipsed 4,000 yards for the first and only time in his career, finishing with 27 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. When protected, Wentz can produce, because he has game-breaking arm strength and the confidence to take shots. With the Colts, he will have time to throw, and he will have upgraded weaponry all around him. T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman are strong options, third-year receiver Parris Campbell is a scary Swiss Army knife-type if he can stay healthy, and Mo Alie-Cox is a massive TE target, which is a position we know Wentz loves to hyper-target. Protection + weapons = happy fantasy owners, and as a bonus he not only has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor to ease the burden, he has one of football’s most underrated backs, Nyheim Hines, as a brilliant pass-catching option as well.
Wentz is also an underrated rusher, which is becoming more and more necessary at the position for fantasy relevance. Wentz was inside the Top 10 for rushing attempts among regular starters, and checked in ahead of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. He has averaged three or more rushing attempts per game in each of the last four seasons, and last season matched his career-high in yards per game (23). That’s nothing crazy, but it is useful when he has low-yardage games; raised floors are extremely important when bargain-hunting for QBs, and Wentz’s rushing floor is reminiscent of Ryan Tannehill’s. Scoff if you want, but Tannehill has finished back-to-back seasons inside the Top 10, and Wentz has a much higher ceiling as a passer. Even if some of his rushing is to avoid decapitation behind a putrid offensive line, that decline will be a trade-off for more passing yards, touchdowns and a better chance at a healthy season.
It’s hard to erase the disaster of 2020, but the truth is we have been overdrafting Wentz for a while based on his 2017 campaign. Now, the shine has finally worn off, and he’s being drafted at a place where there’s basically zero risk. That 2017 upside hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s just free now. Enjoy it.