I Have Concerns: Jalen Hurts May Be Daniel Jones In A High-ADP Disguise

Jalen Hurts has been the subject of some controversy this offseason as new head coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t anointed him the starting QB entering training camp. It seems silly – they traded Carson Wentz this offseason and didn’t draft any QBs in a QB-rich draft – but maybe the reason for the hesitation is that Hurts does have quite a bit to prove.

As a fantasy prospect, Hurts was tantalizing. He started four games for the Eagles in 2020, and was electric. He rushed for 106 yards vs. the Saints in Week 14. In Week 15, he was possessed by the Phoenix Force, torching Arizona for 338 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and 63 rushing yards with a rushing score. His fantasy relevance concluded in Week 15, when he passed for 342 yards and a score vs. Dallas while adding 69 yards on the ground. That’s great stuff, and if you project that across a full season then you’re drooling. The gaudy numbers masked some concerning stuff, however, that is going to be exposed if Hurts is a full time starter and doesn’t make drastic improvements.

First, it’s important to remind ourselves that fantasy production does not equal real life value to a team. While Hurts was a devastating fantasy QB in those three glorious weeks, PFF handed out a 56.2 grade. Even worse, he earned just a 55.4 grade as a rusher, placing him far below other known running QBs like Kyle Murray (86.5), Lamar Jackson (77.8), Dak Prescott (78.9) and Cam Newton (66.2). They analyzed his performance, and graded him like a raw athlete who is unrefined in just about all the aspects of the position, which is what happened to him at Alabama when he was passed by a true freshman, Tua Tagovailoa, who subbed in for him to win a National Championship.

Hurts completed just 52% of his passes last season, and threw four interceptions to go with his six touchdown passes (2.7% INT percentage). The only regular starters with a higher interception rate than Hurts were Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Sam Darnold and Cam Newton. Hurts was tied with Mitch Trubisky. To put that into context moving forward, Smith is retired, and Wentz’, Darnold’s and Newton’s current ADPs are No. 155, No. 172 and No. 205, respectively. Hurts’ ADP is No. 78, ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Quarterback rating and QBR are flawed statistics, but Hurts’ 77.6 rating and 41 QBR are indicative of a player who was flat out not a good QB in 2020 despite the massive counting stats.

Could he improve? Sure. But he never passed for 3,000 yards at Alabama, was benched in the biggest game of his career, and only eclipsed the 3,000-yard mark at Oklahoma, with a juiced up offense in one of college football’s highest-octane conferences. Comparatively, Mac Jones passed for 4,500 yards at Alabama in 2020, and Tagovailoa passed for 2,840 yards in 2019 but with 33 touchdowns against a mere three picks.

Essentially, Hurts is a RB doing a QB impression at this point. He’s being drafted as a Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson-type if you don’t want to spend up at that level for your QB, when he really is more of a peer to Newton or Daniel Jones. I did some comparing of Hurts to Jones here, but we can dive deeper into it now while also bringing in Newton to the conversation. Hurts averaged 7.2 yards per pass attempt, identical to Newton, posted nearly the same Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (6.22 vs. 6.17), and the literal same INT%. Newton’s passing was ridiculed all year long – and rightfully so – yet Newton averaged 177.1 passing yards per game, a.k.a. 77 more than Hurts in his four starts. The number is dragged down by Hurts’ abbreviated game vs. Washington when he was famously pulled, but it is of note that his two big passing yardage games were against Arizona and Dallas. When he faced New Orleans he only managed 167 yards, and when he was pulled vs. Washington he was 7-20 for 72 yards and an interception.

On the rushing front, he averaged only 4.2 attempts per game, on par with Jones’ 4.6, and less than half of Newton’s. He averaged about a yard fewer per attempt than Jones, but found the end zone three times as opposed to Jones who only scored once. Hurts’ rushing output is largely touchdown-dependent like Newton’s, but rushing touchdowns can be fickle. Newton, Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen have proven over the last two seasons to be consistent goal line weapons, but Hurts is still new. Yes, he looks like he will be deployed in that fashion, but we simply don’t know yet. If his rushing TD numbers fall off, he’s going to look scarily like Jones, who is not a desirable option based on his ADP.

So could Hurts be elite? Yes. If his rushing opportunity remains the same or increases then he has a fairly high floor, and we’ve seen Josh Allen go from a 52.8% completion rate as a rookie to arguably the best QB in fantasy. But the odds are against it, and there are players with similar profiles going much later than Hurts. This is a spot where you’re better off paying up earlier, or just waiting until the end of the draft.