Dark Horse RBs: These Three Middle Of The Pack RBs May Be Hidden ADP Gems

The three RBs I’m about to discuss are sleepers at fantasy football’s most important position. Their inclusion here is not a prediction of greatness in 2021, but I am highlighting the opportunity that is there for them, based on their talent and projected usage. Unlike high-upside handcuffs like Tony Pollard (DAL) or Alexander Matison (MIN), these players can explode without an injury in their backfield.

James Conner, RB, Cardinals (ADP: 86)

 James Conner is currently the No. 86 overall pick in half-PPR formats and the 35th RB taken off the board. That’s likely because he’s currently projected to be on the low end of a timeshare in Arizona, but there are many reasons to expect Conner to come out on top by Week 1.

While there’s excitement about Chase Edmonds ascending to lead back status, it’s worth noting he’s never carried the ball 100 times in a season since entering the NFL, and four of his five touchdowns in 2020 were receiving scores. Edmonds was rarely seen around the goal line, with that work going to Kenyan Drake. In fact, Drake saw 239 carries to Edmonds’ 97 despite Drake posting a RB DVOA of -3.4%, 29th among RBs with 100 carries. That’s probably because Edmonds posted just a 1.8% RB DVOA, 33rd among RBs with fewer than 100 carries. We don’t know that Edmonds can’t be an effective three-down back, but we do know the Cardinals haven’t trusted him with that role yet. And they signed Conner, who has all of these qualifications on his resume.

Conner became the Steelers’ lead back in 2018, when Le’Veon Bell held out for the entire season. Conner carried the rock 215 times that season, and even despite battling some injuries in the following two campaigns, Conner toted the rock 169 times in 2020. He also has proven passing game chops; he saw more than 70 targets in his breakout 2018 season, and has averaged 50.7 targets in the past three seasons. Conner hasn’t hit the peak of his 2018 success, but there are some mitigating factors.

He’s been on and off the field with injuries, making it through 10 and 11 games, respectively, in 2019 and 2020, and he’s been running behind a deteriorating offensive line. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranked last in adjusted line yards, last in RB yards and 30th in Power Success. Arizona’s line was barely an improvement on the Steelers last season, but in Arizona Conner has the benefit of an extremely mobile QB. And in spite of the poor line play, Conner still averaged 4.3 yards per attempt and found the end zone six times as a rusher. While Edmonds has shown promise as a rusher, Conner is a proven commodity who outperformed Edmonds badly as a rusher per PFF and has just as high a ceiling. Oh, and he may be a better option on passing downs.

While Edmonds graded 77.7 per PFFas a receiver, he graded just 47.5 as a pass blocker. Conner graded well below him last year as a receiver (54.9), but his pass blocking earned a 64.4, good for 12th among qualifying RBs. Edmonds may be the purer receiver of the duo, but Conner’s blocking combined with his own skill are the better package. He averaged 3.4 receptions per game across the past three seasons and caught four touchdown passes in that span.

Zack Moss, RB, Bills (ADP: 103)

Moss, a third round pick in last year’s draft, had an underwhelming rookie campaign. He battled some injuries, finishing with 112 carries for 481 yards and four touchdowns as the lesser half of a time share with Devin Singletary. The Bills morphed into one of the NFL’s most bludgeoning offenses, but it was on the strength of QB Josh Allen’s evolution into an elite passer, as well as Allen being their best rushing weapon near the goal line. Allen, not Moss or Singletary, led the team in rushing touchdowns with eight. That’s double Moss’ total, and six more than Singletary.

Look under the hood, however, and there’s room for Moss’ role to grow. Per PFF, Moss was superior to Singletary in all the ways that matter; he graded a 73 overall against Singletary’s 66, and posted significantly higher marks as a receiver and pass blocker. That’s not going to be ignored by the Bills’ coaching staff, which will now have a full, normally functioning offseason to further implement Moss into the offense. The Bills also showed faith in Moss by not drafting a RB of note, nor chasing any veteran RBs on free agency. They’ve let Todd Gurley sit out there for quite awhile, and resisted the urge to bring in Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, or other such vets on the decline. They saw things they liked last year from their RB corps, and it probably wasn’t from Singletary since they watched him as a rookie in 2018 and expended high draft capital to bring in Moss.

Second, while Allen is a very talented rusher and a load in short yardage, he evolved so much as a passer that it’d be logical for Buffalo to reduce his exposure to big hits. Moss, unlike Singletary, is built for it. Listed at 5’9, 223 lbs. Moss is a load with a low center of gravity who posted double-digit rushing touchdowns for three straight seasons at Utah. He tied for 7th in the NFL last season in yards after contact/attempt (2.4) with Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery and Mike Davis. Moss does not have much breakaway speed, nor will he be a game breaking rusher, but he absolutely possesses big touchdown upside, and has a path to leading a high-powered offense in touches. That is quite a bit of promise to be had from a player going off the board at No. 103 overall.

Michael Carter, RB, Jets (ADP: 138)

Carter, unlike Moss, doesn’t have a promising first year to base this opinion off of because he’s a rookie this year. Typically fourth-round rookies on offenses that ranked dead last in points, yards, yards per play, and first downs aren’t appealing to fantasy owners. But when said offense ditches an all-time bad offensive coach and drafts a QB drawing draft comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, things can shift quickly. Carter had an impressive college career, rushing for more than 1,000 yards in his junior and senior seasons despite sharing work with Javonte Williams, a second round pick in this draft of the Broncos. He averaged eight yards per carry last season, piled up more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and posted his third straight 20+-catch campaign. Carter has a three-down back skill set, and despite working in a time share, had big time production and a healthy carry count. He’ll also be running behind a line that has seen significant investments made in it the past two seasons after the Jets spent a first rounder on LT Mekhi Becton, and a first on G Elijah Vera-Tucker this year.

Most importantly, Carter’s competition for work is not daunting. The biggest threat is Tevin Coleman, who was signed pre-draft. Coleman has been around for awhile now, and had fleeting success at times. Coleman fell apart last season, playing in eight games and averaging 1.9 yards per carry for the 49ers, finishing with 53 yards on 28 rushing attempts. The Jets’ investment in him is not significant (one year, $1.1M) and he earned a wretched 50.3 rushing grade from PFF. His remaining competitors are Ty Johnson, a 2019 6th-round pick who has had flashes of explosiveness but has failed to catch on, and La’Mical Perine, a fourth-round pick last season who failed to impact the offense in any way last season and couldn’t even supplant Frank Gore. Carter thrives on making shifty cuts and bursting, which makes him an ideal fit for the new offense the Jets are running with new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur – brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur – and he’ll have holes with his upgraded line. Chances are the Jets will deploy some kind of committee, but Carter is the safest bet to lead the committee from Day 1, and relegate the other backs to pure relief duty.