Old & Busted or Old & Productive: Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger
Today, we’re going to play a game called Old & Busted or Old & Productive! I’ll pick two players age 30 or older, and break down whether they’re old and busted, and aren’t worth drafting at their ADP, or old and productive, and should be targeted in drafts. Here are today’s options:
Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers (ADP: 116): Brown, 31, was signed last season amid controversy because he and Tom Brady seem to have a pretty strong bond on the field. He played in eight games for the Bucs, averaging 5.6 receptions per game and finishing with 483 yards and four touchdowns. The Bucs have brought back their entire starting 22 from the Super Bowl squad, so that begs the following question: is the former clear-cut WR1 in football now just a possession receiver/FLEX play? Or is another year and full offseason in Tampa Bay going to rekindle his old glory?
Brown’s usage definitely increased as the weeks went on; from Week 15-17 Brown averaged 6.7 receptions per game and 88.7 yards and scored four touchdowns.
Mike Evans Chris Godwin Antonio Brown Rob Gronkowski
Week 15 @ ATL 7 5 7 7
Week 16 @ DET 12 9 6 2
Week 17 v. ATL 4 7 15 4
Total 23 21 28 13
In those final three weeks of the 2020 season, Brown led the team or tied for the team lead twice, never saw fewer than six targets, and scored in every game. Brown also has proven to be Tampa Bay’s most versatile receiver in the group; despite ranking third in yards per reception (10.7), all four of his scores were longer than 10 yards, and three of them came from 25 yards out or further.
Brown’s season was also viewed favorably by Football Outsiders, where he posted an 8.9% WR DVOA, and PFF, where his 82.2 grade ranked 16th in the NFL, just .3 points behind D.K. Metcalf and .4 points behind Tyreek Hill. For context among his teammates, Mike Evans graded 74.9 (40th) and Chris Godwin graded 76 (31st). It’s clear Brown has a lot of juice left, and even though he’s one of several hungry mouths in the Bucs’ offense, their lack of a defined running game should lead to plenty of opportunities for Brady to feed them. Final Answer: Old & Productive
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (ADP: 152): Big Ben began the 2020 season with some buzz that the Steelers offense would be BACK! After missing almost all of 2019, Roethlisberger made it through 15 games last year, but took massive steps back from 2018 in yards (from 5,129 to 3,803) and attempts (675 to 608). He did put up a slightly better TD% (5.4%), and throw only 10 interceptions as opposed to 16, but the pedestrian yardage hurt his fantasy campaign. Roethlisberger has never been a runner, and he’s not going to start at age 38, so we need huge passing numbers for him to be viable.
That’s probably not in the cards anymore. He took a pay cut to remain with the Steelers, who spent their first round pick on a stud three-down running back, Najee Harris, out of Alabama. We’ve seen elite rushers on this team before, and they’ve never hindered Roethlisberger’s statistical production, but that was a different Big Ben. The version we saw last season was simply lesser, borne out by his 69 PFF grade. Despite one of the league’s best WR trios (Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, all of whom are back in 2020), he ranked 25th by PFF, sandwiched between Andy Dalton and Gardner Minshew. His passing grade barely eclipsed Cam Newton’s, and Newton was benched multiple times for poor play. He posted the 20th-best QB DVOA (1.1%) and the 23rd-best QBR (60.8). That QBR was worse than Daniel Jones and Mitch Trubisky. And before you blame the Steelers’ offensive line for Ben’s drop off – because that is a current narrative being used to knock Harris’ 2020 upside – the Steelers had the best adjusted sack rate in football last season. Roethlisberger can continue to be efficient throwing touchdowns, and has the weaponry to have huge games, but he shouldn’t be drafted as an every-week starter anymore, or even drafted at all in single-QB formats. Final Answer: Old & Busted