Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints

Must Own

Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP: 2): Kamara is a special running back, and I’ve made a strong argument to take him No. 1 overall in 2019. While he receives less overall work than the other players at the top of the draft, he produces just as much, if not more, as those higher-volume players. Last season he totaled 1,592 yards from scrimmage, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 8.8  yards per reception while scoring 18 touchdowns. He was an absolute monster, and that was with the work divided almost evenly between him and Mark Ingram. Ingram is gone now, and has been replaced by the inferior Latavius Murray. Kamara should see an uptick in his usage; he’s not the most durable guy, so Murray’s role will be fairly big, but any increase in Kamara’s usage should be enough to put him at No. 1 at his position in this offense. I mean, he was pretty much already there.

Michael Thomas, WR (ADP: 11): Thomas has gotten better in each of his three NFL seasons, and has proven to have the most reliable pair of hands in football. Pairing an elite receiver with an 85% catch rate (NOT a typo) with a Hall of Fame QB is a recipe for a first-round caliber stud. Thomas is probably the No. 1 or No. 2 guy at the position in full-PPR leagues, but there’s an argument for him to be the first receiver off the board in any format. No team in football has as potent a fantasy 1-2 punch as the Saints. There isn’t much to say here beyond feel comfortable drafting Michael Thomas.

Drew Brees, QB (ADP: 82): Brees used to be in the no-brainer, elite category but times have changed. Father Time is undefeated, and while Brees remains an elite real-life player, and very solid fantasy option, I’m no longer salivating at the thought of him on my roster. Brees will turn 41 this season, and the Saints have become an increasingly run-heavy offense. He is still capable of going off, and at year’s end he’ll look fantastic, but 2018 saw him dip below 4,000 passing yards for the first time since 2005, when he was still a Charger. His 266.1 yards per game were also the fewest since 2005, and while that’s not awful, it’s nothing to write home about. From Week 12 through Week 15, Brees failed to throw for more than 203 yards three times, and didn’t throw more than one touchdown in that entire span. He’s fallen off statistically, and the fantasy community is realizing it too slowly. Don’t be one of these folks who overpays for him, then can’t get off the investment when an undrafted QB is outperforming him every Sunday.

Jared Cook, TE (ADP: 73): Cook is going to be kind of polarizing, as he has a long history of being butt, but a recent history of being shockingly useful. Cook has long been a tease, being drafted highly based on talent and upside only to deliver lukewarm, at best, production. We’d long given up on him when he put up and 896-yard, six-touchdown season for the downtrodden Raiders. He was targeted 68 times and genuinely did a lot with that work. Now he joins the Saints, in an offense where talented tight ends have done supremely well like Jimmy Graham and Ben Watson. Cook is nowhere near as good as Graham, but he’s probably more talented than Watson. Cook is currently the 7th tight end off the board, and that’s the area where I’d rank him as well. He very well could provide value for this ADP.

Fantasy Relevant

Tre’Quan Smith, WR (ADP: 182): Smith flashed throughout the year, but was mostly not useful for fantasy owners despite the No. 2 receiver role being there for the taking. He popped for 111 yards and two scores in Week 5, then flashed again in Week 10 with a ridiculous 10-catch, 157-yard, one-touchdown whopper vs. the Eagles. He also put up zero points six times, and fewer than 25 receiving yards in 11 of his 15 games. He was wildly inconsistent, and we won’t know for sure if he’s figured out the NFL yet until he plays. There aren’t many players with as wide a range of possibilities as Smith, but around this ADP there are worse gambles. His upside with Brees at the helm is tremendous.

Ted Ginn, WR (ADP: 285): Ginn very well be a live look into Smith’s future. Ginn is the nominal No. 2 receiver, and he doesn’t have much value outside of very deep, three-WR leagues. Outside of a 10-touchdown season in 2015 for the Panthers, he’s largely been a mediocre player who tops out at around 55 receptions and four touchdowns. While Ginn is one of the all-time special teams assets, that matters very little to fantasy owners. Personally, I don’t have any interest in owning him.

Handcuffs

Latavius Murray, RB (ADP: 80): Murray is going to have a sizable role in this offense, but don’t go penciling in Mark Ingram’s production for him. Murray is not Ingram, and he isn’t going to see the same workload. Murray is a competent back, but he’s consistently averaged 3.9-4.1 yards per carry since 2015, and his value is largely based on touchdowns, which Kamara has proven he can handle. While Murray will see touchdown opportunities, he is not going to be the “goal line” back in New Orleans. Murray is currently going 33rd at the position, and that’s much too early for me. Unless I took Kamara in the first round, I’m waiting on Murray or being very okay with missing out.

Deep Sleepers

Taysom Hill, QB (ADP: N/A): Hill is essentially a QB-eligible running back who didn’t do a whole lot last season. His 37 rushing attempts for 196 yards and two scores are nothing to write home about, but he could be worth an extremely late pick in two-QB leagues. In two-QB leagues, several rosters will enter Week 1 without a backup to their top two QBs; those owners may be better off rolling the dice with Taysom Hill on their guys’ bye weeks rather than hoping a backup lucks into some playing time.