Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: New England Patriots

New England Patriots

Must Own

Julian Edelman, WR (ADP: 41): Edelman, entering his age 33 season, may be in line for his best NFL campaign yet. He’s clearly the No. 1 target in the passing game for Tom Brady, and should expect to see a healthy increase in targets after superstar TE Rob Gronkowski’s retirement. He was already Brady’s security blanket, and now he’s just flat-out the best pass-catcher on the team. There are definite roadblocks to Edelman making good on an ADP this high, though.

He’s 33 years old. He’s missed games in three of the last four seasons, and he’s never caught more than seven touchdown passes. Edelman is primarily a slot player, and he’s undersized at that, so red zone work isn’t his forte. My vision of a best-case scenario for Edelman is 100+ catches and 1,000+ yards without a ton of touchdowns. That kind of output is clearly worth this ADP, even factoring in the risk of missed time. New England’s offense is going to be elite as always, so having the top receiving option will be fun.

Sony Michel, RB (ADP: 52): Michel’s ADP is sinking at the moment, and I’m not sure why. Like the Saints, the Patriots have dealt with the slow erosion of their Hall of Fame QB by leaning more and more heavily on the run game. New England invested a first round pick in Michel last season, and he mostly rewarded their faith, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring six touchdowns in 13 games. Michel’s upside is capped, as he looked next to useless in terms of providing anything in the passing game. But he has 1,000-yard, double-digit touchdown potential for an elite offense and he’s being drafted as the  last guy in the Top 25 at the position.

James White, RB (ADP: 65): White is one of the more intriguing players in fantasy this season, because his production last season was so far beyond anything he’d done in the past, and the Patriots’ roster is such that he may not be relied upon that way again. White caught 87 passes for 751 yards and seven touchdowns last year, and rushed 94 times for 425 yards and five scores. The rushing numbers are going to drop significantly; while he was effective, Michel is going to be healthy, and they have Rex Burkhead back as well as rookie Damien Harris. So we’re already dinging him. It’s not crazy to expect similar, or even better, receiving numbers though.

Gronk was targeted 72 times last season, and Josh Gordon 68. Entering Week 1, Gronk will be on a golf course, and Gordon may be still applying for reinstatement. Assuming Gordon is still out, that’s 140 vacated targets and no clear option to soak them up. We could easily see White go up from 123 targets to 150, and leveling him up to 100+ receptions. I’m even more confident that he could see that level of work when the Patriots are reducing his rushing workload from six carries per game. Touchdowns are always iffy, so I will say White is in the right spot with the chance to be a value.

Fantasy Relevant

Josh Gordon, WR (ADP: 105): Gordon, unbelievably, is still on this team. I know you’re rolling your eyes and having a physical reaction to me talking about Gordon possibly being relevant, but the fact is he saw steady work from Brady last season in his 11 games. Gordon is a mega-talented deep threat with major upside as a red zone target, especially with Gronkowski gone. Obviously he can’t be trusted as a pillar for your team, even though he’s been reinstated, but at this ADP he’s not a bad gamble.  I liked him much, much better a week ago when his ADP made him a free roll, so I don’t know that I’ll own him. But I can see why a fantasy owner would, and I don’t despise this ADP as long as it doesn’t shoot up any higher.

N’Keal Harry, WR (ADP: 107): Harry, a first round pick out of Arizona State, put up impressive numbers in college and is being penciled in by some as the Patriots’ top option on the outside. I’m less convinced. Harry is a talented player, but the Patriots’ offense is famously difficult to master, and therefore it’s tough for a rookie to shine in it. It doesn’t help that there’ve been negative reports out of camp about his progress. Harry is a fine dynasty pick, but I will not be taking him anywhere near this ADP, or probably at all in any redraft format.

Tom Brady, QB (ADP: 115): Brady’s getting old man. While he still piled up 4,355 passing yards, he threw double-digit picks for the first time since 2013 and threw fewer than two touchdown passes in half of his starts. While he remains an excellent real life quarterback for the actual Patriots, that’s just mediocre for fantasy owners. The Patriots’ admirable offensive balance sinks Brady’s fantasy value, and him going 14th at the position is potentially generous. I won’t be owning him, as I’d rather shoot my shot with the young, running QBs going much later.

Handcuffs

Damien Harris, RB (ADP: 143): Harris doesn’t have eye-popping college numbers as he was sharing the Alabama backfield with first round pick Josh Jacobs, but he’s a well-regarded dual threat who could thrive in New England. I doubt it’s this year, however, because Michel and White are a potent one-two punch and the next guy I’m going to write about is also around to vacuum up goal line opportunities. Harris has upside, but he is going to require an injury or two to open up playing time, so I’m not interested outside of dynasty drafts.

Rex Burkhead, RB (ADP: 187): Burkhead has two-way capability, but not much upside to be a game-changer. He’s been limited to 18 total games in the past two seasons, and the Patriots’ backfield is crowded, relegating him to little more than a goal-line back/occasional third-down back role. I’m not interested in drafting him as a handcuff, as I’d rather own Damien Harris.

Deep Sleepers

Phillip Dorsett, WR (ADP: 341): Dorsett is not a bad receiver, and his familiarity now in the Patriots’ system could imbue him with some early value while N’Keal Harry gets his sea legs. He’s a deep-league flier type, and early-season bargain in DFS.

Defense/Special Teams: The Pats’ defense doesn’t stand out, but they will play six games against the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. That’s not nothin’!