Fantasy Football 2017 Preview: Should You Draft These Old QBs & RBs?
We all want to load our team with high-end studs at the top of the draft, and super young sleepers as the rounds – or auction – rolls along. But sometimes there are certain – read old – players staring you in the face and begging to be taken for a bargain.
Once football players hit age 30, we pretty much start downgrading them. Sometimes that’s right, and it’s often true of running backs. But other times these guys wind up as valuable cogs on playoff-bound teams.
Below, I’ll run through some of the most relevant and interesting players that are 30+ and let you know how to handle them. All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasypros.com.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (Ranking: 9, ADP: 88)
So yeah, Big Ben is going to have a few games in which he goes absolutely crazy and throws for four or five touchdowns, and 350+ yards. You’ll love those games, and if your game plan is to pair him with another QB and roll with matchups then you’ll likely enjoy your time with him. But bear in mind that Big Ben is 35 years old, has failed to play all 16 games in each of the last two seasons, and has tossed double-digit interceptions in the last two seasons. He is boom-or-bust, and taking him as a top-10 QB is really mehhhh.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (Ranking: 15, ADP: 127)
Rivers, also 35, is more consistent than Roethlisberger. He does not have Antonio Brown at his disposal, but he has more weapons overall. He is a better value than Roethlisberger, but he’s far more boring. Age will not matter here; Rivers is gonna Rivers, and that means finishing inside the bottom of the Top 12.
Eli Manning, Giants (Ranking: 16, ADP: 130)
Manning was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy last year, with many considering him to be a cheap candidate to finish in the upper tier of his position thanks to having Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard to throw to, as well as Ben McAdoo ascending to head coach. Instead, he was pedestrian to bad most weeks, and saw his touchdown total drop by nine. This year, he’s my favorite of these three old geezers, because I think he has the best chance to finish inside the Top 10. Remember, he still has Beckham and Shepard, and now he has Brandon Marshall too.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch, Raiders (Ranking: 10, ADP: 19)
A look at Lynch’s stats from last year reveal…nothing…because he was not an active NFL player last year. We last saw Lynch in 2015, rushing for 3.8 yards per carry, battling nagging injuries, and mustering a measly three touchdowns. Now he’s back – and presumably refreshed – but are we just assuming he’s going to revert to prime Beast Mode? It’s a tough sell, and he’s joining an offense in which the biggest strength is QB Derek Carr and his top-flight wide receivers. If Lynch is healthy, he should push double-digit touchdowns. But he may just be O-L-D and give you low yardage totals with little to no receiving value. Thankfully, he’s ranked almost perfectly for that risk.
Adrian Peterson, Saints (Ranking: 20, ADP 50)
Peterson, at 32, is damaged. He played one game in 2014, which seemed to refresh him for 2015, but then he blew out his knee (for the second time) in 2016 and was horrendous in the games he played prior to that. Now, he’s headed straight for the ass end of a time share with Mark Ingram in a pass-happy offense that uses lots of shotgun (AP hates shotgun). I expect Peterson to be a shell of himself, but the role he’s falling into will likely net 10-12 touchdowns. He should finish the year as better than the No. 20 running back simply because he’ll be a weekly threat for a 35-yard, two-touchdown line.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (Ranking: 41, ADP: 107)
Stewart is ranked exceptionally low for a guy who scored nine touchdowns last year, but it makes sense. He doesn’t catch the rock, he rarely makes it through 16 games, and now he has to fend off rookie Christian McCaffery, whom the Panthers took with the eighth overall pick. Stewart is a surely declining player, but this fall-off is way too steep. He should remain a very serviceable RB2.
Jamaal Charles, Broncos (Ranking: 58, ADP: 188)
Charles is one of the most befuddling players in fantasy this year. He’s coming off major knee injuries, has played in eight games in the last two years and registered 83 carries in that time, all while entering his age-30 season. He is also slotted behind C.J. Anderson, who is a full-time back when healthy. But chew on this. Anderson himself has only managed 12 games combined in the last two years, and he’s never been much of a receiver out of the backfield. Denver could be viewing this as a pure timeshare, in which Charles is the best version ever of Darren Sproles. Perhaps a reduced workload can keep both healthy, and push Charles way past RB 58. I’d gamble on him at a depressed ADP.