Super Bowl 51 Prediction: Patriots vs. Falcons Pick Against the Spread
Super Bowl LI (51) is upon us! Without much ado, here is the only Super Bowl pick that matters, against the spread, and why.
The Line: New England Patriots (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Patriots enter this matchup with a 16-2 record (including postseason), the No. 1 offense in football, and a Top 5 defense against the run per Football Outsiders. The Falcons enter the matchup with a 13-5 record, the No. 2 offense per Football Outsiders, and a defense that ranked poorly over the course of the season, but features the NFL’s sack leader Vic Beasley Jr.
The over/under for total points sits at 58.5, the highest it’s ever been set in Super Bowl history. That makes sense for the top two offenses in football, but don’t let the narrative carry you away; the scoring won’t be as extreme as you think, and that favors the Pats.
Atlanta has massive playmaking ability, but in New England they are up against a defense that is almost nightmarish for them. New England ranked sixth in the NFL in points per red zone defense, and fourth in the NFL against the run. That is going to hurt the Falcons, who rely on the NFL’s most dynamic run duo (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) to keep defenses focused on the box so WRs Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel can wreak havoc down the field.
Making matters worse, Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master of taking away what an offense does best. Yes, that’s cliché, but in this case its true. That means lay off the Julio Jones prop bets, because it’s going to be very tough for him to blow the game open as the focal point of Belichick’s defensive game plan. Jones is already not as great as you’d think in the red zone, so with Belichick focusing on taking him away, New Engand’s red zone dominance will be on display.
On the offensive side of things, the absence of TE Rob Gronkowski is unfortunate, but far from a death knell for the Patriots. Since Gronk went out in Week 12, here are New England’s point totals: 26, 30, 16, 41, 35, 34, 36. Those last two were in playoff wins vs. the Texans and Steelers, the Nos. 8 and 7 defenses in the league, respectively.
The Falcons allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns (31) in 2016, the fifth-most passing yards (4,267), and only registered the 18th-most sacks despite Beasley leading the league with 15.5 of them. Tom Brady only struggles when he is under duress, and the Falcons do not appear to be the type of team that will harass him into uncharacteristic mistakes. Atlanta won’t even be able to lean on their run defense, as that ranked third from the bottom per Football Outsiders. They allowed 200+ yards on the ground twice, and 100+ in 11 of 16 regular season tilts. It appears that the Patriots won’t be forced to pick a poison; they will be in a position to dole out punishment provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot.
So folks, I like the Falcons a lot. They have a great offense, and a QB in Matt Ryan who should win the MVP. But this matchup is bad, and the Patriots are as seasoned as can be. Pick the Patriots at -3.