Leap To Elite: Ian Anderson Is Ready To Be A Frontline Fantasy Starter

It’s no secret that pitching is in high demand this season as we approach draft season, so aces will be scooped up early. For those who take advantage and snap up elite hitters that fall through the cracks, nailing it with middle-round pitchers will be critical. One such pitcher primed for a breakout, and going No. 102 overall, is Ian Anderson of the Atlanta Braves. There’s a whole lot to love about Anderson, and we’ll get into all of it here.

First, he has incredible draft pedigree. Anderson was the third overall pick in 2016 and he’s steadily risen through the minor leagues without hiccups. Anderson debuted last season, and impressed, going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA while striking out 11.41 batters per nine. While the sample is limited – COVID kept Anderson to just 32.1 innings – Anderson allowed batters to barrel up his pitches barely more than 1% of the time over the course of 81 events. He has three offerings – fastball, changeup, curveball -- and distributed usage pretty evenly with none of them eclipsing 49% usage. Per his Prospects Report, he earned a 70/70 grade on his changeup, and that was his most valuable pitch in 2020, checking in at 4.4 runs above average. His fastball was worth nearly three runs, and he averaged 94.5 miles per hour on it, providing a very different look than his curveball which he twirls at 80.5 mph.

Another critical skill Anderson has shown thus far is the ability to keep balls in the park. He posted a miniscule 4.5% HR/FB ratio last season, and has routinely suppressed homers except for a 24.2-inning blip at Triple-A in 2019. While 4.5% seems ridiculous, and we should expect to rise across a full season, his 52.5% ground ball rate shows that Anderson limits the type of contact that becomes homers. Opposing batters made hard contact just a quarter of the time vs. Anderson last year, and medium contact nearly 60% of the time. With more than half of that contact on the ground, it’s a great recipe for Anderson to keep those home runs down, and by extension suppress his ERA.

The one piece of his game that could keep him from being elite are walks. He issued free passes to nearly four batters per nine in 2020, and walks have been in his profile since Rookie ball. Control is a continual issue for him, and that could raise his WHIP floor as well as bloat his ERA should he have a poor BABIP season, or experience slippage in his typically excellent strand rate. It’s something to note, but ultimately, the good far outweighs the bad for Anderson. He’s also a lock to remain in this rotation; he’s currently slated to be Atlanta’s No. 3 starter, and there aren’t many options causing him to look over his shoulder. Anderson might wind up as a fantasy No. 2 starter this year and should be a target for all fantasy owners, especially those who draft hitter heavy early.