2020 Bounce Back Values: The Disrespect of J.D. Martinez Is Too Real
2020 was a strange season for many reasons. It was only 60 games long, there were no fans, and J.D. Martinez hit like garbage. It’s definitely weird, but he slashed .213/.291/.389 with seven home runs. Bizarre, since he’s long been one of the premier sluggers in MLB. Martinez will turn 34 in 2021, so was last season’s performance the beginning of a steep descent off a productivity cliff? Or can we blame COVID and pretend it didn’t happen? I’m betting on the latter.
The first thing I look at when I see a great hitter post an absurdly bad season is BABIP. Sure enough, Martinez’s BABIP was just .259 in 2020, almost 80 points below his career mark. Martinez experienced a rise in his strikeout rate, and a dip in walk rate, but neither were significant enough to indicate a massive change in his ability. Martinez was a bit less disciplined at the dish, swinging at three percent more pitches outside the zone, but there may be an explanation for that. As discussed here with Cubs shortstop Javy Baez, some players expressed dismay that they were denied in-game film review of their at-bats. Baez was probably the most vocal, but if he wasn’t, it was Martinez. “To take our game back 30 years, I think you’re not doing it justice. I think you’re just trying to do yourself a PR stunt,” Martinez said. “It’s a joke. It’s gotten so ridiculous.”
Well, the video rooms remain closed, but MLB is providing teams tablets in the dugout so they can work on their swings in game, which is joyous for fantasy owners who want as many quality bats available as possible. As bad as he was in 2020, there were signs that an elite slugging season is still within him. His barrel rate was at 11%, right in line with his 2019 number and nearly double MLB average. Those numbers suggest decline from his peak, but are encouraging in the sense that he’s still a great hitter. The same goes for his Hard Hit %, which was 41.6% last year, again showing some decline but still the kind of number that makes for a useful fantasy hitter.
We also can’t let one COVID-shortened season poison the well on a player who has been consistent for years now. From 2014-2019, Martinez hit better than .300 in five times, hit 35 or more home runs in four times, and eclipsed 100 RBI five times. From 2016-2019 he posted an OBP of at least .373 every year, topping out at .402 in 2018. He’s also locked into a prime spot in the Red Sox lineup even if he continues to decline gradually, giving him plenty of opportunity to rack up high run and RBI totals even if he’s not the same hitter he once was. He also benefits from his all fields approach, which prevents teams from shifting him and helps reduce the chances of him becoming a batting average sink.
Martinez’s ADP is No. 89 overall, and No. 26 among outfielders. He’s going behind the likes of Ketel Marte, Teoscar Hernandez and Nick Castellanos, among others. This is brazen disrespect for a player who has been a mainstay of the early rounds, and whose only disappointment came in an unprecedented 60-game sample in which he was unable to use modern technology to address issues. Martinez will not be lasting to this ADP in drafts I am a part of, and there’s no reason fantasy owners should be this down on him. He’s a tremendous value right now.