Ready for Primetime: J.D. Davis is a Kraken Lurking At The Bottom of the Mets Lineup

J.D. Davis has been a tantalizing bat with no true home for a few seasons, but 2021 is shaping up to be a potential breakout for him. Davis is the projected everyday third sacker for the Mets, and hitting in a lineup that suddenly looks like one of MLB’s elite. Even though he’s projected to hit near the bottom of this order, Davis should provide robust production because he’s got pure thunder in his stick.

When you think of Davis, you immediately think power. He has a 70/70 Raw Power grade on Fangraphs’ Prospects Report, cracked 22 dongs in 2019, and hit 20+ home runs for three straight seasons from High-A to Double-A. At Triple-A he had five bombs in 16 games before getting called up for his first taste of big league action. Davis’ average exit velocity is usually above league average, and he’s been in the low 90s for two straight seasons. His hard contact dipped in 2020, but it’s crucial that he’s never posted a soft contact rate of more than 16.3% at the MLB level. Davis has also posted a career Barrel rate of 10.4%, four full points higher than MLB average. Even in 2020, a COVID-shortened campaign in which he underwhelmed expectations, Davis was in the Top 20th percentile in Hard Hit %, and just outside that range in xWOBA. With a regular spot in the lineup, Davis has the look of a 30+-HR hitter who can hit for average and should be a positive in the RBI and R columns.

Now, I say he can hit for average because we’ve seen it; he hit .307 in 2019 across 453 plate appearances. He also had a .355 BABIP that year, and he’s only hit better than that once, at any level, when he batted .342 in 80 games at Triple-A. Davis profiles more as a .260-70 type hitter which is more than adequate if he maximizes his power potential. At the MLB level, however, he’s hit below .250 in every other season than 2019, albeit in limited opportunities. These low batting averages are alarming, but they all occurred in seasons in which he played 56 or fewer games, and he never reached 230 plate appearances in any of them. In his only true, full campaign Davis was a beast at the plate. That fun 2019 that got us all excited was much more in  line with his minor league production than his part-time flailings.

His hitting ability isn’t in question. Playing time is the biggest obstacle for Davis, and concerns about playing time are why his ADP has been pushed to No. 230 overall. Defensively, Davis is not good. He earned a -9.0 defensive rating in 2019, and was a -3.4 last season in only 56 games. The Mets invested in a number of players this offseason  -- Albert Almora Jr., Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar – who are all superior outfielders to Davis, so if he is unbearable on defense at 3B he’s going to lose playing time. Villar in particular is a threat, because he is one of the  more versatile defensive players in baseball, and has been an All-Star caliber player in the past. The Mets have championship aspirations, so Davis must improve defensively to ensure he doesn’t lose critical at-bats to defensive replacements late in games. It should encourage those, like myself, who are bullish on Davis though that the Mets didn’t pull the trigger on any trades for guys like Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado. It’s a signal that they’re pushing in their chips on Davis, and I believe he is going to reward them, and us, with a fantasy season that provides big value on this ADP.