2020 Bounce Back Values: Gary Sanchez Is Still The Home Run King At Catcher

Another year is about to begin, and I’m once again hyping up the ability of Gary Sanchez to be a fantasy anchor. Sanchez’s No. 156 overall ADP is indicative of where the fantasy community is at with him, but I’d argue now is a better time than ever to buy in. Catcher is easily fantasy baseball’s weakest position, and while he carries tremendous risk, 30+-HR potential lurks here.

Sanchez has been damaging for the last two seasons. He hit .232 in 2019 and .147 last year before losing his starting job ahead of the postseason. Those numbers are putrid, disgusting, sickening and everything in between. I get it. He also posted a 36% strikeout rate, which is making my eyes pop out of my head like a Looney Toon. None of that is fun to even look at, let alone have on your fantasy roster. He’s also been unlucky. Sanchez hasn’t posted a BABIP better than .244 in three seasons, and it was below .200 in 2018 and in 2020. That’s shocking for a player who consistently is at 90 mph or more for average exit velocity, and regularly posts hard hit rates better than 40%. Sanchez has developed into a heavy pull hitter, but those are still significantly unlikely outcomes.

Sanchez barreled up the ball 17.4% of the time last season, and 19.1% of the time in 2019; MLB average rate is 6.4%. Sanchez has also hit the ball on the ground much less since 2018, dropping his ground ball rate to a career low 38% in 2020. This is important for him, as he ranked in just the 13th percentile of big leaguers in Sprint Speed. Of course we’d like a better contact rate from Sanchez, but with this player we’re getting someone who is at or on the cusp of the top 10% in barrel rate (top 3%), hard contact and exit velocity. And for all his striking out, Sanchez posted a 10.1% walk rate in 2020, and 12.3% in 2018. He has the ability to post respectable OBP numbers provided he gets a little batted ball luck. We should expect some gains in that department after three straight seasons of the worst luck possible. And while we’re mostly expecting Sanchez to be a batting average sink, it’s worth noting that he hit .278 or better in his first two MLB seasons.

Clearly, recent history has been dreadful, but let’s look at what “good” Sanchez gives. In 2017 he slashed .278/.345/.531 with 33 home runs, 90 RBI and 79 runs in 122 games. In 2019, he went .232/.316/.525 with 34 home runs, 77 RBI and 62 runs in 106 games. Compare that to J.T. Realmuto, the slam dunk top catcher this spring, in 2019. Realmuto went .275/.328/.493 with 25 homers, 83 RBI and 92 runs in 145 games. Granted, Realmuto is a much safer batting average bet, those numbers aren’t that much better than good Gary, and Sanchez is available 112 picks later. I’m certainly happy to grab Sanchez this late and bet on Lady Luck smiling upon his batted balls.