Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Colorado Rockies, German Marquez

This is the ninth in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies.

Marquez finished 2019 with an ugly 4.76 ERA, but that metric fails miserably to paint an accurate picture of how he performed last season. Marquez finished the season with a significantly lower FIP (4.06) and a genuinely good xFIP (3.54). He struck out nine batters per nine, and walked fewer than two. So why the poor ERA? Well, Marquez was a clear victim of his home park, the notoriously pitcher-unfriendly Coors Field.

Marquez’s home/road splits are staggering. Away from home, Marquez posted a 3.667 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and surrendered 16 home runs over 100.2 innings. At home, Marquez posted a bloated 6.26 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and served up 13 home runs in 23 fewer innings. Marquez was pretty much an ace – save some bad home run luck – on the road, and an unusable fantasy option in his home ballpark. At this point, you might be ready to point out that Marquez is still a Rockie, and Coors Field is still his home park. I get it, but there’s still room for optimism about his 2020.

First, Marquez is only 24, so there’s a lot of time for him to evolve into an even better pitcher than he already is. As we stated before, he is already a high-strikeout guy, and because he has such great control, he’s not going to put himself in bad situations where bad homer luck can really devastate his numbers. Last season Marquez finished with a .388 BABIP at home; it’s understood that BABIP will be inflated in Colorado’s thin air, but that’s still extreme. He has a career .326 BABIP at home, and he should revert to that range in 2020. If the BABIP normalizes, the gains he’s made as a control pitcher and his continued strikeout propensity should elevate him to a tier below the ace caliber.

Here’s some more stuff you wouldn’t think based off his inflated ERA. 2019 was his second year in a row with a sub-4.00 SIERA despite playing in the worst pitcher’s park in MLB. It was his second straight season holding opposing hitters to a sub-30% fly ball rate. He has also held opposing hitters to a sub-38% hard contact rate in all for of his big league campaigns. Marquez is a big-time pitcher masquerading as a mediocre one because his home environment is just ghastly.

So, here’s what you do. Ignore his ADP (No. 165) and the fact that he’s the 48th pitcher off the board. Get excited about drafting him, and in the early going only start him on the road.

I believe that he will be a better pitcher overall this year, but let him do well a few times at Coors on your bench before you trust it. You will reap ace-caliber results from his road starts, and then you can utilize him in plus matchups at Coors Field. Sure this may ding your counting stats a bit in Roto formats, but you’ll wind up with a very productive SP by season’s end. And, let’s not forget, there’s upside for this 24-year-old to breakout and just be a stud no matter where he pitches.