Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Cleveland Indians, Oscar Mercado

This is the eighth in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Oscar Mercado of the Cleveland Indians.

Mercado is one of the highest variance players I will talk about in the lead up to the 2020 campaign, because he can be a breakout fantasy star or find himself on the bench or in Triple-A. Last season was Mercado’s first taste of big league ball, and he was solid. He slashed .269/.318/.443 with 15 home runs, 70 runs scored, 54 RBI and – most importantly – 15 stolen bases in 115 games.

Mercado has elite stolen base potential, and has shown it throughout his rise through the minors. Mercado topped out at 50 stolen bases in Single-A, but has racked up 33 at High-A, 38 at Double-A, and 31 at Triple-A in 2018. Last season he had already swiped 14 bags in 30 games before being called up to The Show. With stolen bases being as scarce as ever in modern MLB, a player with 40+-steal upside is highly sought after, which is why Mercado is currently inside the Top 35 ADP (No. 134) among outfielders.

So where’s the big downside I alluded to? Well, there’s not a ton of evidence that Mercado is a great hitter. He’s never hit better than .294 in his career, and that was over 30 games at Triple-A before being called up. He was a fixture in the high .280s in Double-A and Triple-A, but those came with very high BABIP numbers propping him up. That’s not unheard of for players with his speed, but it is definitely alarming to see that in 2016 he hit .215 over 125 games in High-A. His walk rate is even more concerning. Mercado’s walk rate has never exceeded 11.4%, and more often than not was in the single digits. In his first MLB action, Mercado walked just 5.8% of the time. He combated that with an acceptable 17.4% strikeout rate, but refusing to take free passes will inevitably lower his OBP ceiling, and potentially cap his steals upside. Mercado’s teammate, Greg Allen, is a prime example of the downside of this archetype. Allen got us all hot and bothered with 21 swipes over 91 games in 2018, only to hit .229 last year and only appear in 89 games. His walk and strikeout percentages are eerily similar to Mercado’s.

Mercado also doesn’t have much pop. MLB is a homer-happy league these days, and for Mercado not to hit a bunch of dongs, he needs to make up for it with his legs. He has the speed and talent to do that, but his refusal to walk may limit his opportunity to capitalize on the bases. He made hard contact less than 40% of the time in 2019, made contact 77.7% of the time, a number that needs to rise for him to justify his current ADP.

The great news, however, is that Mercado is only 25. He was also a plus defensively in center field, which should immunize him from benching for a while if he struggles at the plate.

He’s currently projected to bat second, behind Francisco Lindor and ahead of Carlos Santana and Jose Ramirez, making him a stealth candidate for 100+ runs. But do not neglect his huge downside, and do not reach too far to grab him.