Fantasy Baseball 2019: Underrated Non-Closers Worth Drafting

Brewers relief pitcher Josh Hader is an absolute stud. His ability to dominate for multiple innings likely makes him too valuable to pigeonhole in the closer role; while that increases his value as a baseball player, it hurts him in most fantasy formats because it robs him of saves. Still, Hader is being drafted No. 102 overall per FantasyPros.com.

Hader is absolutely worth drafting in all formats, but this price tag is very steep for a non-closing relief pitcher. There are other non-closing relievers who are going far later in drafts, and offer very similar – or possibly greater – value.

Dellin Betances, Yankees (ADP: 230): How would you like to draft Josh Hader, only more than 100 picks after you’d normally take him? Because Dellin Betances is Hader; he’s simply been around longer, and is therefore less new and shiny. Betances has been one of the surest bets for strikeouts in the reliever ranks for years, and has carried significant value in all formats for two out of the last three years despite rarely seeing save opportunities. We’re all drooling over Hader’s 15.82 strikeout per nine figure, but Betances has posted strikeout per nines of better than 15 since 2015. Hader’s 3.32 walks per nine last season are very enticing in comparison to that strikeout rate, but Betances posted walks per nine of 3.45 and 3.51 in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Betances’ 2.70 ERA is also just a bit higher than Hader’s 2.43, and Betances’ comes several years into a role as a high-usage relief pitcher.

I can buy some hesitation on Betances this season based on the myriad obstructions to his path to saves. Not only is he stuck behind an elite closer, Arolids Chapman, he will have to contend with former All-Star closer Zach Britton, and Adam Ottavino if Chapman goes down. I get it. But Hader has to contend with his own former All-Star, Corey Knebel, as well as a proven option in Jeremy Jeffress who competently closed last year for the Brewers (15 saves). Both players are going to provide awesome production in strikeouts, wins, holds (league-dependent), ERA, and possibly even WHIP if they can harness their control. The difference is that we’re used to Betances’ excellence, so he’s become “safe” rather than “exciting.” Don’t fall for it. Lay off Hader, and grab essentially the same guy at pick no. 230.

Trevor May, Twins (ADP: 358): May is way down in the rankings and ADP because of the perception that Blake Parker, an inferior pitcher, is going to be getting the saves in Minnesota. To that I say…maybe? Parker, 33, has “experience” in the role, saving 22 games over the past two seasons for the Angels, but he also posted a 4.40 FIP last season and a career-high 89.4 percent strand rate. That’s not sustainable with a pedestrian (for closers) strikeout per nine of 8.59, even if he does a good job of limiting walks.

May is four years Parker’s junior, struck out nearly 13 batters per nine last season, and showed impeccable control walking fewer than five percent of the batters he faced across 25.1 innings of work. May got a taste of closing last year, locking down three games, and even if he isn’t the closer on Opening Day, it’s unlikely Parker will have an exceptionally long leash. At this ADP, you are drafting a potentially dominant closer, and at worst he will aid you in strikeouts and WHIP while you wait for him to be given the job.

Keone Kela, Pirates (ADP: 416): Kela is the clear second-in-command in the Pirates bullpen, and while Felipe Vazquez is entrenched, the Pirates’ bad roster and tough division could tip the scales in favor of trading the lights-out incumbent as part of a re-stocking of the farm system. While Kela waits for such a trade to occur, he will be offering plenty of strikeouts (10 or more strikeouts per nine for the entirety of his career) and useful WHIP. Also, if Kela is able to secure the job at some point, he has a track record of success. He saved 24 games for the Rangers last year before being dealt, and since a rough 2015 rookie showing, has blown just four saves in the ensuing three seasons.

Joe Jimenez, Tigers (ADP: 429): Jimenez is someone I covered here, but there may not be a non-closer I’m more sure of earning significant save opportunities than this guy. He’s a very solid pitcher in his own right – 11.20 strikeouts per nine, a 2.91 FIP hidden by an ugly ERA – but more importantly, he’s next in line behind Shane Greene, the worst confirmed closer in MLB right now. Greene posted a 5.12 ERA last year with a similarly gross 4.61 FIP, blew six save chances in 2017, and if he even shows a glimmer of viability he’ll likely be traded to a contender before he detonates.

Will Smith, Giants (ADP: 487): Smith’s ADP is in the toilet because the assumption is that veteran Mark Melancon is going to be the Giants’ closer. It’s reasonable; Melancon has a 51-save season under his belt, has notched nearly 200 saves in his career, and is allegedly fully healthy after back-to-back injury-plagued campaigns. But there’s the rub. He’s been injured enough to wreck two full seasons, and at 33 health is likely to continue being a concern. Why entrust Melancon with such an important job, when there’s a younger option who is currently far superior?

Smith pitched to a 2.55 ERA last season that should’ve been even stronger based on his 2.07 FIP, and he did it while striking out 33.8 percent of batters faced, a mark Melancon has never reached even in his best seasons. Melancon’s control has always been pristine, but Smith’s far superior strikeout ability was accompanied by a 2.55 walks per nine mark. He learned to harness his stuff better than ever in 2017. The Giants haven’t made any concrete decision publicly on whom they’ll have closing games this year, but the smart money is on Smith, even if it’s not on Opening Day. Additionally, Melancon’s ADP is just 410, so you could probably lock up both fairly late in your draft if you’re interested. Just be aware that the Giants might really stink.