Fantasy Baseball 2019: Underdrafted Old Men

We are always searching for breakouts and sleepers throughout the draft, but our search for the sexiest pick often leads us to overlook some older fellas who can really help a team out, especially at their current ADP. Consider these players when you draft, or even pass on early options at these positions and target the old (30 or older) men below.

All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves (ADP: 103): Donaldson is currently going at the back of the Top 100 on average, which makes some sense, as he’s 33 years old and hasn’t played more than 113 games in the last two seasons. 2018, in particular, was a mess in which he slashed .246/.352/.449 with a mere eight homers in a largely useless campaign. But let’s remember who Donaldson was. He smacked 78 home runs combined in 2015 and 2016, and he hit 33 home runs in 2017, despite appearing in just 113 games. If healthy, Donaldson is an elite source of power, and has the potential to be a plus in RBI and batting average, as well as runs if he hits near the top of the Braves lineup. He’s currently the 12th 3B off the board, and going a full 50 picks behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a prospect who not only wasn’t going to be in the majors for the majority of the first month of the season, but who is also battling a spring oblique injury. Waiting at the hot corner for Donaldson makes sense, as does drafting him regardless of position and using him as a power source in the Utility slot.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Nationals (ADP: 134): Dozier has become an afterthought at second base, a position many consider to be thin. While Dozier was an abomination in 2017, putting up an unspeakable .215 batting average in 151 games, there are some signs that point to his weak season being a fluke. Dozier’s walk and strikeout percentages were eerily similar to his 2017 marks, in which he produced a much stronger line. Similarly, his ground ball rate was only up slightly, and his fly ball rate remained nearly identical. He even experienced a three-point spike in his hard hit percentage. Dozier was not a meaningfully different player in any category besides BABIP, and in cases like this a bounce back is extremely predictable. If Dozier bounces back, he could literally be the best value in fantasy baseball. This is a player who delivered 42 home runs and 18 steals in 2016, and followed that year up with 34 homers and 16 swipes. This is a high-caliber player, and he’s in a very strong Nationals lineup now. One of my favorite values in all of fantasy this year.

Rich Hill, SP, Dodgers (ADP: 170): Hill, 39, is legit old as far as athletes go. He also hasn’t pitched more than 135.2 innings since 2007. So yes, when you draft him you have to build in missed time, and maybe draft an extra SP or two rather than a bench hitter. Setting aside his age, though, when this guy pitches he’s elite. Hill has posted a strikeout per nine of 10 or better in six straight seasons; while in some of those seasons Hill pitched very few innings, that trend has held through three consecutive campaigns in which he’s hit 100 innings at minimum. Hill is a bona fide strikeout artist, and it’s not all because of his nasty curveball. In fact, Hill’s most valuable pitch over the last two seasons has been his 89-mph fastball, which he locates surgically and looks faster when contrasted with the 75-mph curve. Hill is an elite source of strikeout-to-walk ratio, WHIP, and potentially wins if he can pitch enough. He’s currently going after tired veterans like Jon Lester and Cole Hamels, who will pitch more but will not pitch at anywhere near the quality of Hill.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (ADP: 172): Andrus is currently an afterthought, going in the 15th round of 12-team drafts and 18th at his position. He was certainly disappointing in 2018, displaying poor on-base production and seeing his home run-to-fly ball rate regress to pre-2017 levels, when he swatted a career-best 20 home runs. Andrus’ power surge in 2017 is probably an aberration, and even 15 homers in any campaign moving forward is likely a solid number for him. But in a landscape where stolen bases are considered scarce, there aren’t many more consistent sources of steals than Andrus, who swiped 20 or more bags in nine straight seasons before injuries limited him to only 92 games last year. Andrus stole 42 in 2013 for a career-high, and discounting his lost 2018, his worst year on the base paths was a 21-steal campaign in 2012. Many drafters are paying high premiums for steals near the tops of drafts – i.e. Trea Turner (Round 1), Starling Marte (Round 3) – or are aiming for steals specialists like Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton later who will sink you in power, OPS, and potentially even average and runs if they bat ninth. Andrus does not present a black hole in the power department, and he’s going more than 70 picks after Gordon.

Nick Markakis, OF, Braves (ADP: 262): Markakis is no Dozier. There isn’t any Top 20 upside here for the 35-year-old, but there is a very high floor as a third, or fifth, outfielder depending on league setup. Markakis is always between .270 and .298, providing a healthy batting average boost in an era where more and more hitters are selling out for home runs at the expense of their average. Markakis also consistently walks around 10 percent of the time; combined with his high contact rate, and low strikeout rate, he is a plus for your OBP and OPS even though he’s mediocre in the power department. He hasn’t dipped below .346 OBP in his last four seasons with Atlanta. There’s no superstar potential here,  but he’s going three picks ahead of the likes of Trey Mancini, who could easily provide zero value in 2019. You know what you will get from Markakis, and it will be useful.