Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: This Patrick Corbin Breakout Is Real

Patrick Corbin is a thing that’s happening right now. It’s very early in the season to draw strong conclusions about anyone, but Corbin’s start to the 2018 campaign has been stellar. He is 2-0, and has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 29 strikeouts over 18.1 innings. I’m alerting you of this because there are signs it isn’t a fluke.

The first thing I looked at to see if he’s pulling a fast one on us is his FIP, which got my pitcher-sense tingling. Corbin’s FIP is sitting at a cool 1.97, even lower than his already fantastic ERA. His xFIP – which is a bit more speculative, but can still be illuminating at times – is even more bullish on him at 1.21. His performance so far has been legit, and, if anything, unlucky.

Now, we’ve seen Corbin before. He’s not a new face bursting onto the scene; that breakout happened all the way back in 2013, when he hurled 208.1 innings and won 14 games. Since then Corbin has been hurt very often, missing all of 2014, pitching just 85.1 innings in 2015, and failing to top 190 innings since his breakout. When he has pitched, he’s been just okay. Through these three 2018 starts, his numbers are startling, particularly the strikeout numbers.

In 2018 Corbin is striking out more than 14 batters per nine, a mark nearly double what his career high is. He’s also walking fewer than two per nine, which he’s only done once at Single-A. I dug a little bit, and found the reason for believing in this Corbin transformation. He’s a new pitcher.

Corbin is throwing fewer fastballs, which is good because his heater comes in at around 92 miles per hour. That’s not nothing, but it’s nothing incredible. He has replaced those four-seamers with sliders, ramping up the breaking ball usage by about nine percentage points. Per Fangraphs, that slider has been worth about 3.9 runs above average, which explains his quantum leap in effectiveness.

In addition to unleashing his slider more often, he’s using a sinkerball as well. His sinker has been worth 2.4 runs above average, and his ground ball percentage, up 12 percentage points from last season, reflects the increased usage.

So there you have it. If you are looking for a pitching upgrade, try and snag Corbin. At this early stage of the season even struggling owners aren’t pumped to trade away any of their big guns. What they may not realize, however, is that this surprising start for Corbin is signaling an extended star turn. The Corbin owner may be intending to sell high on Corbin, and it should be you who benefits.