Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Should You Sell High On Shohei Ohtani?

While baseball completely freaks out over how amazing Shohei Ohtani’s 2018 has been so far, the degenerate trader in you has to be wondering whether or not to sell absurdly high on the Japanese Babe Ruth. So…what do you do?

The answer is deflating; it depends. If you are playing on Yahoo!, like yours truly does, then the answer is clear. For other formats, which treat Ohtani as one player and give owners the option to play him as a hitter or a pitcher on any given night, it’s a tougher call. So let’s start with Yahoo!.

Ohtani came to the U.S. primarily as a pitcher, and through two starts he’s been dazzling. He flirted with a perfect game in his second start, and over 13 innings has posted a 2.08 ERA, 0.46 WHIP, and struck out 18 hitters. That’s incredible stuff, and according to my favorite stat, Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP), those numbers don’t do his performance justice. His FIP, a better indicator of future performance than ERA, sits at 1.74. Ohtani has come to MLB and looked every bit like the pitching star he was in Japan. It’s obviously early, but nothing here looks like a fluke. Sell Ohtani for the moon if you want, but know that you aren’t unloading a lemon. Ohtani could very well be one of the best pitchers in baseball, so make sure you are getting a monstrous return.

As a batter, he’s tougher to decipher. So far, Ohtani is slashing .364/.417/.773 with three home runs, four runs scored and eight RBI. That’s insane for a guy who is making his mark already as a potential staff ace! In spite of that, if you own Ohtani the hitter, it’d be wise to send him somewhere ASAP.

He has hit in just eight of the Angels’ 13 games, which is unusual for a guy swinging such a red hot bat. That’s because the team is being very careful with their precious two-way player, keeping him out of the batter’s box on days when he pitches, as well as the games before and after a start. That leaves you scrambling, at minimum, three out of seven days a week. It leaves you relying on a ridiculous HR/FB ratio of 75 percent, and his current .357 BABIP to keep up this pace, which is impossible to sustain. Most people will know that you’re trying to sell high on a player with limited opportunity, but some might think they can platoon him effectively. If they think that, why shouldn’t you profit?

For those in other formats, my suggestion is to hang on to Ohtani unless you’re blown away by an offer? He has immense potential as a starting pitcher, and such a short track record in MLB that it’s not possible to receive the right haul in return. You could sell him as a Top 10 starter and you wouldn’t be crazy. A potential trade partner would also not be crazy to tell you he hasn’t earned that status yet. Reaching consensus on him as a pitcher is just too difficult at this point, and selling him now means you aren’t maximizing his value.

Keep him. Have a blast. Enjoy the Ks.