Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: OF Sleepers, Busts and Overview

It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.

This is the outfield preview. Because it’s a much larger position, I’ll break up the sleepers a bit.

The Top Five

1. Mike Trout, Angels: Not much needs to be said here. Trout is hands down the best player in baseball, and on the path to becoming the best player of all time. He can be counted on for elite batting average, power, RBI, on-base percentage, and he has the upside to steal 30+ bases, although that’s slightly less of a given. His game literally has no flaws. He’s a perfect baseball specimen. Enjoy highlights.

2. Mookie Betts, Red Sox: Betts was like Trout adjace in 2016. Diet Trout. He was phenomenal. Like Trout, there’s no skill that isn’t in Betts’ arsenal. He slashed .318/.363/.534 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases. He did it all with a .322 BABIP, which is entirely repeatable. He bats at the top of, or in the middle of the Red Sox lineup, which is among the best in MLB. That means he’s going to score buttloads of runs; last year he touched home plate 122 times. That’s an underrated part of many players’ value, and Betts is elite. He was also worth 9.8 runs on the bases last year, so his own prowess is a factor, as opposed to him being a mere product of a run-scoring machine.

3. Kris Bryant, Cubs: See here, and here, for why I’m mad high on Kris Bryant.

4. Bryce Harper, Nationals: Nope, I’m not scared of his 2016. Harper has all the tools to be the No. 1 player in fantasy in any single season, and a shitty campaign isn’t going to frighten me. Some positives: Harper still posted a .373 on-base percentage, is due for major positive regression after putting up a massively unlucky .264 BABIP, and still racked up 24 home runs and 21 stolen bases in a bad year. And don’t underestimate those steals. That is hard to come by these days, and Harper combines speed with immense, 50-home run potential. If he falls to the end of Round 1, or even Round 2, make the pick as fast as you can.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: Stanton is outside my Tier 1, even though I firmly believe if he puts in 150+ games he could finish No. 1. His power is undeniable, and he has the ability to hit for average, and flirt with .300. But health is just not Stanton’s friend; he’s only made it 145 games or more twice since 2010, and failed to hit 125 games five times. That’s simply too much risk to invest a first round pick in, as talented as he is. But should he stay healthy? I’d expect him to belt close to 50 bombs, leading the NL, and drive in around 90-100 runs.

Mainstream Sleeper Candidates

1. Jose Ramirez, Indians: Speaking of hard-to-find steals, Ramirez is going to be available later than he should. It’s hard to get overly excited about a guy whose ceiling might be 15 home runs, but Ramirez is going to hit close to .300 and steal 20 bags. Oh, and he’s only 24 years old. You can do far worse for a secondary outfielder.

2. Odubel Herrera, Phillies: Herrera is 24 years old, and an exciting player on what might be a surprising Phillies team. He put up a 15-homer, 25-steal campaign in 2016, a season in which he made marked improvements. Herrera nearly doubled his home run total, increased his steal count by nine (while getting caught one fewer time), struck out less and almost doubled his walk rate. He has the kind of speed to swipe 40 bags in a good year, which would push him close to elite territory even if 15 home runs is his ceiling.

3. Melky Cabrera, White Sox: Would you like an outfielder to round out your squad that will consistently deliver high batting average, and flirt with 90+ RBI as a middle-of-the-order hitter in a gutted lineup? Then the Melkman will deliver. Melky does not possess the upside of Herrera to ascend to Top 20 stature, but it’s difficult to imagine him being a complete flop. He is the type of player who can keep you aflot if a Stanton type gets hurt for awhile, or he can be the late-round pick that serves as the cherry on top of a fantasy sundae.

Deep Sleeper Candidates

1. Tyler Naquin, Indians: Naquin benefited last year from a .411 BABIP that won’t be repeated, so let’s get that out of the way. The reason I still like him, despite tending to stay away from players coming off a high BABIP, is I think he has the potential to be a potent blend of speed and power, with his power upside being severely underrated. He popped 14 home runs in just 116 games last year, and slugged .514. That’s impressive for a 25-year-old rookie, as is a .218 ISO and .374 wOBA. Naquin may need to get off to a hot start, but he could be a major surprise in 2017.

2. Jarrod Dyson, Mariners: I’ve talked quite a bit about steals in these previews, and that’s going to continue with Dyson. He has never played more than 120 games, but he’s still swiped 30 or more bags in five of the last six seasons. Now with Seattle, Dyson is going to be an everyday player, capable of scoring 100 runs and stealing 50+ bases. He reaches base more than the average steals specialist, and will be very valuable if you’re okay with rostering a dude that has zero power.

3. Ender Inciarte, Braves: Inciarte, 26, is like a younger version of Dyson with more upside since we’ve seen less of him. He’s stolen at least 16 bases in each of the last three years, and has swiped as many as 43 bags in the minors. If it seems like I’m beating on the steals theme, it’s going to be important this year. Also, at this point in drafts, these are the types of outfielders that remain rather than home run specialists.

Beware Bust Potential

1. Mark Trumbo, Orioles: I know, Trumbo was so fun last year with his 47 home runs. I’m not going to lie I still kind of like Trumbo and would be willing to gamble on him in my drafts, but that’s the rub. Trumbo is a gamble. The power will undoubtedly be there, but he had never smoked this many homers before. His previous high total was 34, in 2013, and since then he’d topped out at 22. I am a bit skeptical of him returning to the 40+ club, and there’s also the danger of his batting average dipping into the .230s. Again, I think he’s going to be a solid player, but after the peak of 2016 it’s going to be very hard for him to return value.

2. Adam Jones, Orioles: Sorry Orioles, but there could be some busts in your lineup. Jones is still consistent, but he’s consistently trended downward. He barely steals anymore, and he’s being drafted as a high-end power guy, when he’s actually clocked in below 30 homers for two straight campaigns. This year I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles to get to 25 home runs, and with his dismal walk rate he won’t make up the value with runs or OPS.

3. Billy Hamilton, Reds: No I’m not messing with you. For as much as I’ve talked stolen bases, the current steals king makes my bust potential list. Here’s the thing, all the steals guys I’ve pumped up are either later picks, or players who offer more than steals. Hamilton, for as much of a speed merchant as he is, is a one-trick pony. He’s failed to reach 120 games in the last two years, put up sub-.300 OBPs in two of the last three years, and failed to crack a .665 OPS in the last three seasons. He’s got no power, and he doesn’t hit for much average either. Steals are valuable, but they’re not worth sinkhole stats in almost every other category.

Great: 6

Very Good-Good: 22

Fringe Starters: 20