Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 3B Sleepers, Busts & Overview
It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. This is the first of many articles I will write to help you prepare for your season. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.
This is the third base preview.
The Top Five
1. Kris Bryant, Cubs: The upper crust of 3B is about as loaded as first base, and Kris Bryant is king of both positions. Bryant’s supremacy is largely based on his age – at 25 years old he’s already slashed .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs and 102 RBI – and the scary thought that there’s upside. In 2015, Bryant stole 13 bases; that’s not something you should count on, but it remains a trick that could still be up his sleeve, and separates him that much more from these other studs just behind him.
2. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: There are a lot of arguments to have Donaldson atop the positional rankings, the biggest being he had strikingly similar year to Bryant. Donaldson slashed .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs and 99 RBI, showcasing almost equal power, and superior on-base ability. There’s no doubting Donaldson’s place as a first-rounder anymore. At 31 years old, he should be expected to remain at this high level; ranking him second is merely curiosity to see how much further Bryant can ascend.
3. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: This guy is another clear first-round pick, and he benefits from playing in the greatest hitter’s park ever. Arenado has posted back-to-back 40+-home run seasons, and he also posts consistently high batting averages. There’s no flaws in his game besides a lack of stolen bases, which are extremely rare in corner infielders. He’s dinged ever so slightly in comparison to Bryant and Donaldson because he doesn’t walk as much, but he’s an elite player in all respects. There’s an argument for him to be above Bryant and Donaldson too; Arenado has racked up 130 RBI or more in back-to-back campaigns. That tends to be a team-dependent stat, but this guy is showing a knack for it that’s uncanny.
4. Manny Machado, Orioles: If you’re drafting Machado, it’s likely to play shortstop where he sat atop the Smarter Fantasy rankings, but he’d look damn good at the hot corner too. Machado is young (23), powerful (37 home runs), and potentially a source of steals (20 SB in 2015).
5. Todd Frazier, White Sox: Frazier is outside my first tier of 3B, but there’s a way in for him. Frazier matches up with anyone in MLB in terms of power, swatting 40 bombs last year and 104 over the last three seasons. Frazier posted a terrible .225 batting average though, and .302 OBP, far behind the elites. Frazier gets the benefit of the doubt here though for one reason, and that’s the extremely unlucky .236 BABIP that afflicted him. If he can raise that average to at least .250, he becomes a tremendous fantasy asset, and likely drags his OPS back into the .800 realm. That’d be a big deal.
Some Sleeper Candidates
1. Eugenio Suarez, Reds: Remember how I talked about steals being tough to find at the corners? Suarez has some! He’s Marcus Semien-ish; don’t expect much in the way of batting average, as he posted a .248 average despite a .304 BABIP. He’s stolen 20 bags in the minors before though, and last year slugged 21 homers to go with 11 steals. He should play plenty for a bad Reds team, and be a useful option if you miss out on the big guns, and aren’t enthusiastic about the middle tiers.
2. Wilmer Flores, Mets: Flores is a very talented hitter who struggles to excel largely because of playing time. But the thing is, he should get plenty of time this year. He can back up either corner infield position, so David Wright’s antique back, plus 1B Lucas Duda’s problems vs. left-handed pitching free up innings for Flores to thrive in. Flores saw increased power last year, matching his 2015 home run total of 16 in 34 fewer games, and upping his slugging percentage by 57 points. It’d be nice to see his average come up from the .260s, or for him to steal a little, but if he becomes a regular he has potential to sneak into the Top 12.
Beware Bust Potential
1. Anthony Rendon, Nationals: Rendon has the talent to be a nice multi-category contributor, especially in a loaded Nats lineup, but he also runs the risk of being very mehh at a position that has a lot of quality. Last season Rendon put up a 20-home run, 12-stolen base season. It looked an awful lot like his 2014 campaign, in which he hit .280 with 21 homers and 17 steals. In 2015? Rendon hit .264 with five home runs and one steal in an injury-riddled year. Rendon doesn’t offer high-end power or speed, so he relies on health and at-bats to accumulate his value. If injuries occur, he can struggle to be useful.
2. Evan Longoria, Rays: Longoria returned to the form that led many to believe he was one of baseball’s elite overall players in 2016. But was it a final flurry of greatness for a declining superstar? In the previous two years before 2016’s explosion (36 home runs), Longoria had hit 21 and 22 dingers. He hasn’t hit better than .273 since 2012, and last year he saw his strikeout percentage spike back above 20 percent. He also posted a career-low 6.1 percent walk rate. His counting stats are fun to take in, but he’s not out of the woods when it comes to aging.
How Many Deep?
Great: 4
Very Good-Good: 9
Fringe Starters: 9