2024 Team Previews: Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 2024 Preview:
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 20, RB10): Henry is a very intriguing back to take a look at, because he’s been a massive outlier for a while in many ways. He’s been a dominant RB1 for years without being a factor as a receiver. He’s thrived in a Titans offense that was often bereft of quality receiving options, and had him facing stacked boxes. And he’s continued to be great and overall healthy despite clearing 300 carries in three of the last five seasons, and 280 carries in four of the last five. We did see a bit of decline last season, although he still surpassed 1,100 yards and had double-digit TDs in an offense with bad QB play and terrible pass-catchers. The highs were high, but the lows were alarming, and arriving at the nice final numbers required riding an uncomfortable roller coaster. Now, he’s off the Titans and joining one of 2023’s better offenses, and one known for grounding and pounding teams to death.
Much was made of Baltimore parting ways with offensive coordinator and turning the offense over to Lamar Jackson. In Year 1 of that experiment, Jackson won the MVP and had his best passing season ever…and this offense still led the NFL with 541 rushing attempts and posted the No. 1 Offensive Rushing DVOA in football (18.3%) per FTN Fantasy. Running the football is in John Harbaugh’s DNA, and in Henry he has an ideal banger to soak up volume and handle short yardage/goal line scenarios that keep his two-time MVP signal caller clean. Baltimore’s depth chart is barren of real threats to Henry’s volume aside from some options on passing downs, which isn’t anything new for him. And while he’s aging, efficiency hasn’t been his calling card in several years. The argument for him since 2021 has been volume and TD opportunity, none of which changes in Baltimore.
Lastly, heavy turnover has struck the Ravens’ previously dominant offensive line. They’re PFF’s No. 25 projected line in 2024, which isn’t good, but it isn’t like Henry ran behind a wall of monsters in Tennessee. Prime Henry is gone, but we’re looking at a similar season as the one he had last year, with fewer games in which he’s game scripted out by his defense falling behind, and a quality pass-catching back behind him stealing touches. This ADP is a touch high, but he is a pretty safe bet for big numbers and double-digit TDs by season’s end.
Lamar Jackson, QB (ADP: 40, QB4): The hype was real! Jackson was expected to take on a more dominant role in the Ravens offense as a passer in this new regime, and he did, winning MVP. He set career highs in passing yards (3,678), yards per game (229.9), completion percentage (67.2%) and matched a career-low in INT% (1.5%). He’s never going to be someone who dissects defenses cerebrally game after game, but he’s certainly developed to a point where he can produce for fantasy managers when he’s not putting up league-best rushing numbers.
Oh, and the narrative that this new “pass-first” Lamar would mean less of his bread and butter rushing production was a farce. Jackson is the best rushing QB of all time, and it’ll be part of his game for as long as he’s an NFL starter. He rushed 148 times, the third-most in his career, for 821 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, he’ll frustrate us at times by missing big throws downfield. No, he’s not the most accurate guy you’ll ever watch. Yes, he’s an eliter real life and fantasy QB who can absolutely return value on this ADP.
Zay Flowers, WR (ADP: 49, WR26): Flowers was my highest-ranked rookie WR for the 2023 season, despite Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the highest-touted, largely because he had a clear path to being the Ravens; WR1. Sure enough, he earned the most targets on the team (108), and delivered strong rookie numbers – 77 receptions, 858 yards, five touchdowns. He was a clear value then, but now, with expectations that have him just outside the WR2 range and firmly as a high-end WR3, it gets tougher.
He’s undeniably talented, but even with Jackson operating on a higher plane, this team attempted the third-fewest passes in the NFL and just added Derrick Henry, and will also have TE Mark Andrews back. Flowers has to draw more than the 108 targets he did last season to produce enough to justify this ADP, and that is a tall order for a small receiver. The good news is that he’s very versatile, and easy to manufacture looks for. He can line up on the outside, where he beat man at a healthy 71.7% clip, and he is absolutely devastating vs. zone – which defenses have to play often vs. Baltimore to contain Lamar – as he shredded those coverages at an 85% rate, putting him in the 90th percentile among receivers. Because of this, Flowers is a great bet for volume and is a big asset in half and full-PPR leagues. But he also struggled big time vs. press (35th percentile), and he doesn’t seem to be a first look for Jackson near the end zone. Of his five touchdowns, three came from 10 yards out or further, and Andrews is about to resume his role as the first option in the passing game when they’re close. So while he’s very talented, the limited TD opportunity and overall small passing pie available make me think this ADP is very close to his ceiling in 2024. That’s not to say he’ll be a bad pick, but I do not see him exceeding it.
Mark Andrews, TE (ADP: 48, TE4): Andrews seems at first glance like a crazy value here compared to the ADP of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta, and that’s true if he hits his ceiling. In 2021 he went off for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns. Getting that at this ADP is league-winning stuff. But more often than not, Andrews is moreso a very good TE than a truly game-changing one. That 2021 campaign is the only time he’s gone over 1,000 yards, or even 900. He’s had just one double-digit TD season in 2019, but is more typically in the 5-7 range, and he’s only averaged 5+ receptions per game once, in the magical 2021 year. He’s really good, and this ADP isn’t prohibitive by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s also probably his ceiling like Flowers. Drafting him here is fine, but I do think there’s better value later.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Favorite Deep Sleeper
**Keaton Mitchell, RB (ADP: 225, RB67): Mitchell is super talented, and reminded me of De’Von Achane last season in his ability to electrify the offense with chunk plays. He’s small and got hurt, so volume is a pipe dream. The presence of Derrick Henry also pretty much assures that Mitchell’s usage will be sparing at best. But man, oh man that talent is intoxicating. Mitchell only logged 47 rushing attempts last year, but had seven runs of 20+ yards, two of which were touchdowns of 39 and 40 yards. He also graded well as a receiver per PFF, making him an exciting option as a passing downs back. His limited usage is going to cap his ceiling, but in any given week he’s like wielding a bazooka.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Isaiah Likely, TE (ADP: 167, TE20): Likely is a talented dude, but his path to production is just too muddy. There’s not enough passes to go around to support a lot of receiving options, and he’s blocked from the primary TE role by one of the best in the game. His production picked up from Weeks 12-18, the games where Andrews was out, in which he averaged 3.5 receptions and 53.7 yards per game while scoring five times. If Andrews goes down, he’s definitely a priority pickup, but with Andrews up and running, he’s simply eating up a roster spot.
Rashod Bateman, WR (ADP: 202, WR78): Bateman can make splashy plays, but we are entering Year 4 for him, and he’s never caught 50 passes, surpassed 515 yards or scored more than two touchdowns. They tried to replace him with Odell Beckham Jr., and now have drafted Tez Walker. Yeah, he’s a former first round pick but even as a free lottery ticket there’s other receivers I’d rather take the chance on.
Devontez Walker, WR (ADP: 229, WR85): The Ravens are crying for a big time X receiver, and have been for years. Flowers can do it, I guess, but he’s more lethal as a flanker/slot. Odell Beckham came in to play that role, and he was efficient, but injury-prone and inconsistent. Rashod Bateman…we’ll get to him. I’ve got no idea if Walker can be that, or if he’s just another failed attempt at filling this role and rounding out what could be an awesome passing game, but perusing the depth chart leads me to believe he’ll be given the opportunity to win this job. In three collegiate seasons, two at Kent State and one at North Carolina, he’s averaged 15.9 yards per catch or more every year and combined for 18 touchdowns in 2022 and 2023. His Reception Perception profile is, uhhhh….red. But he’s big and athletic, so it’s not the worst idea to throw a dart at the very end of your draft.
Justice Hill, RB (ADP: 280, RB75): Hill is like the anti-Mitchell, just solid in all phases of the game and wholly unremarkable. Hill would have some value in the event of a Henry injury, because he would soak up early down work before Mitchell does. But even then, he’s not really even an RB2, so I think he’s safe to ignore on Draft Day.