Breakout Potential: Don't Sleep on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Because of the 2024 Rookie WR Class

While we are all rightfully excited to see the 2024 crop of rookie WRs be unleashed, the supposed crown jewel of the 2023 class, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, is likely to be a value in drafts after a somewhat lackluster rookie campaign. While he didn’t light the world on fire in Year 1, there’s still reason to be excited about him going forward, and he should come at a discounted price this season.

He was considered the most complete receiver prospect in the class, but he only finished with 63 receptions, 628 yards and four touchdowns. While those are hardly embarrassing numbers for a rookie, they’re not particularly helpful to fantasy managers. What made things worse was that he never really had any explosive games that won weeks. Rather than a boom or bust route to those final numbers that can get folks excited, JSN went the entire season without hitting 65 receiving yards in a game. He also maxed out as seven receptions, which happened just once, and he never posted a multi-TD game. In a word, this guy was fine. And for a guy whose ceiling was very low, he also had a frighteningly low floor. He caught three or fewer balls eight times in 2023 and only had one game in which he was targeted 10+ times.

At this point you’re wondering why I like JSN right? First, despite the mediocre production, he was actually pretty good. He struggled on nine routes and corners, putting up sub-50% success rates, but entering the league his measurable athleticism was his main concern so issues on those deeper routes aren’t too shocking. He came into the NFL with a reputation as a route technician who was masterful at getting separation despite less-than-ideal athletic traits, and he proved he could do that, surpassing 80% success on curls, outs and routes into the flat, as well as 75%+ rates on posts and digs. He was also a player I expected to be pigeonholed in the slot because of the presence of veterans D.K. Metcalf, who is always at the X, and Tyler Lockett, who can play both flanker and slot. JSN did spend the majority of his snaps in the slot, but per Reception Perception, it was only 62.2% of them. JSN was able to defeat man coverage 72% of the time, a strong number putting him in the 70th percentile, and he knifed up zone at an 81.5% clip, good for the 76th percentile. These are very good marks, especially for a rookie, and they should only improve going forward.

Part of his middling performance can be attributed to the Seahawks having the aforementioned veteran receivers extremely entrenched as key cogs of Pete Carroll’s offense. Those players are still there, but a new coaching staff has taken over, likely with less attachment to their old toys. Metcalf is still a monstrous target who will be a focal point of any offense he’s in, but Lockett’s best days are likely behind him. He’s 31 years old, and fell below 1,000 yards last year despite leading the team in targets. The way this team is set up, the targets are going to be largely funneled to these three receivers just like they were last season. JSN needs the distribution to flip; Metcalf’s targets aren’t going to change much, but Lockett drew 122 last season while Smith-Njigba drew 93. If those can flip, you’re going to see a big leap in production for JSN given the rates he at which he’s shown he can get open.

You’re hoping for a bit of luck if you bank on the Year 2 breakout from JSN, but it’s not all wishcasting. JSN’s not a small guy, so he’s a viable option in the end zone, particularly with the variety of routes he’s shown he can beat defenders. There’s room for a TD spike, particularly if Geno Smith can have a rebound season after he also had a down year in 2023. You’re also betting on Father Time, who is undefeated, to push Lockett aside. I’m comfortable betting on that to a degree, especially since Lockett could very well have a higher ADP than his younger teammate. Without great success on those deep routes, JSN isn’t going to be an efficiency king. He needs volume, so if Lockett’s fall off doesn’t happen, we could definitely see a repeat of 2023. But championships aren’t won without risk, and JSN has shown high-level play on the field, and his breakout candidacy is backed by reasonable narratives.