Leap to Elite: C.J. Stroud & Jordan Love Battle To Be The Next Elite Fantasy Pocket Passer

I have said, and will continue to reiterate, that QBs who operate primarily from the pocket and don’t produce much on the ground are among the riskiest assets to invest in on Draft Day in the early rounds. With that said, there are going to be pass-first QBs who break through, and are worthy of higher draft capital. Last season, we saw Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud both erupt as clear breakout QBs, and both of their ADPs will be significantly higher on Draft Day this year than they were last. But it’s unlikely that both will justify the draft capital, so let’s compare them and figure out which QB is more likely to be elite moving forward.

Love was probably the more surprising breakout of the two, because he’s in Year 3 of his career, and in limited action behind Aaron Rodgers he did not show many inklings of what he produced in 2023. He finished the 2023 campaign with 4,159 passing yards, seventh-most in the NFL, and ended the season second in passing touchdowns (32), fourth in TD% (5.5%) and fifth in pass attempts (579). Love was also trusted when Green Bay was near the end zone; the Packers only scored 10 rushing touchdowns last season, and Packers RBs only accounted for two scores from inside the two-yard line. Love tossed 18 touchdown passes from the 10-yard line or closer, and seven of his passing strikes came from five yards or closer. Love was a surgeon for much of the year, and while many will point to his receiving corps as helping carry him to inflated numbers, those receivers, at least per PFF, might have been a bit overrated. None of Green Bay’s WRs graded inside PFF’s Top 25, with Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, Love’s top two targets, grading outside the Top 40. That’s not to say those players aren’t constantly improving, nor is it the only metric to judge them by; it simply shows that Love was putting in work, and wasn’t being carried.

But, there are some red flags to be aware of. Love’s fantasy production was highly dependent on big touchdown numbers, and while it’s fair to say this is who he is, TDs can be fickle. This season the Packers added a star RB in Josh Jacobs, who will presumably eat into the goal line action Love saw last year. Love was outside the Top 10 in yards gained per attempt (7.2, 13th) and tied for just 10th in yards per completion (11.2). When investing in a QB whom you aren’t expecting big rushing stats from, they need to be prolific with both yardage and touchdowns, and based on Love’s season any TD regression could make him a poor value.

Stroud, on the other hand, was likely a bit unlucky in terms of TD production, and may be a better bet for consistent fantasy greatness rather than goodness. Love was PFF’s No. 12 QB, one spot ahead of Stroud, so it seems fitting they’re being compared here. Stroud was limited to 15 games, finishing the season with 4,108 yards, eighth-most in the league. He was first in yards per game though (273.9), third in yards per attempt (8.2) and second in yards per completion (12.9). Stroud only threw for 23 touchdowns though, which some could argue is a case for positive regression in 2024. Stroud also has arguably the best receiving corps in the league, with three WRs inside PFF’s Top 25. Nico Collins broke out, grading as the No. 3 WR, while Tank Dell was 15th, and newly acquired Stefon Diggs ranked 21st.

Stroud was less dependent on touchdowns for his production, doing more damage per pass attempt than Love. Stroud also matched Love’s eight touchdowns of 20+ yards on the season in two fewer games, and he had five touchdowns of 40+ yards while Love had none. Part of that is the superior pass-catchers, but that’s an area that’s only been enhanced with the addition of Diggs.

So on Draft Day, these two QBs will likely be near each other in ADP, but keep in mind the reliance on TD passes that Love had. Remember that Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers had lost seasons and Patrick Mahomes had the worst receiver group of his career. Love will have to maintain or exceed his 2023 TD pace while also upping his yardage, while Stroud simply needs a bit more TD luck. If you’re faced with the choice, and you’ve committed to an early QB, Stroud is the superior bet to break out.