Fantasy Football 2024 Rookie Rankings: Nos. 10-6

It’s time to get into the Top 10 rookies for this upcoming fantasy season, which is not the same as ranking dynasty rookies. The Top 10 – and today we’ll look at Nos. 10-6 – are how I believe they will impact fantasy teams in 2024 redraft formats. For the Honorable Mentions, click here. Otherwise, let’s get started.

10. Keon Coleman, WR, Bills (Round 2, Pick. No. 33)

Coleman was the first pick of Round 2, and while I can’t say I love him as much as other WRs who were taken in this draft in a vacuum, we’re not playing in a vacuum. Coleman was drafted by the Bills, a team that just traded away superstar WR Stefon Diggs, who vacated 160 targets (7th-most in the NFL last year). Of course, Coleman isn’t about to walk into 160 targets as a rookie, but he is going to be relied upon out of the gate and there aren’t many QBs better suited to support his fantasy success than Josh Allen.

Coleman doesn’t play anything like Diggs, so I’m not bringing up Diggs to say that Coleman is walking into his role. Diggs is a master route runner who thrived on volume, but married the volume to efficiency. Coleman is far from a technician out there, and has never even surpassed 60 catches in a college season. Coleman is a big boy, measuring 6’3, 213 lbs. at the Combine, and he visually is best suited as an outside, down the field, contested catch beast. He scored 19 touchdowns in his college career, with 18 of them coming in the last two seasons, and he averaged 13.5 yards per reception in those campaigns.  The problem, however, is that if Reception Perception is correct about him, he’s going to struggle badly if the Bills are fooled by his size into thinking he can just take over the Gabe Davis role as an X receiver. Coleman ranked in the 20th percentile vs. man coverage, and only posted a 55.2% success rate vs. press, which are gross stats and don’t bode well for him out there. He did beat zone at a very high rate though (80.2%), signaling the potential to excel as a hulking slot receiver. This is very similar to how Jonathan Mingo was talked about last season, and then the Panthers went out and played him on the outside.

Coleman’s risky for sure. There are lots of more well-rounded receivers, some of whom landed in really good offenses that can outperform Coleman. The floor is low; we could be looking at Quentin Johnston here if he doesn’t study up on how to better use his massive frame. But his athletic traits – 4.61 40-yard dash notwithstanding – and the combination of available targets and superstar quarterback make him well worth a gamble this year.

9. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Colts (Round 2, Pick No. 52)

Mitchell is a player who dropped because of concerns about his effort and potential discipline issues stemming from his Type 1 diabetes. The Colts chose to focus on his 15.4 yards per catch and 11 touchdowns at Texas in 2023 as he helped lead them to the College Football Playoff. Mitchell has prototype size for an outside receiver, and he’s joining an offense that has an ascendant QB (Anthony Richardson), a locked-in WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. to relieve defensive attention, a dynamic slot WR (Josh Downs) and a dominant running game led by Jonathan Taylor.

While Pittman can play the X position, he’s best utilized all over formations, and now Mitchell can come in on Day 1 and lock down that outside role. He absolutely tormented DBs that tried to man up with near-75% success rate, and he destroyed them when they tried to press as well. Mitchell’s 76.4% success rate vs. zone isn’t bad at all, but it placed him in the 31st percentile of receivers, so that could be an indication that he’s not destined for super-elite WR1 fantasy status. But he could definitely be looked at with a Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf-esque ceiling, and he’s absolutely a guy who can make noise as a rookie.

8. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (Round 1, Pick No. 1)

Williams is the first overall pick, and he’s coming into a situation where the Bears front office has absolutely stacked the deck in his favor. While Williams can run – we’ll get to that – he is not a run-first QB, which makes it all the more impressive that he might be able to be a legit QB1 right away. Williams’ junior year was actually a step back from his 2022 campaign, but he was still electric. He threw for 3,633 yards and 30 touchdowns, and while his shaky performance vs. Notre Dame was held against him, he finished the season with only five interceptions. Per Reception Perception, he’s good to great everywhere on the field except the middle of the field where his slightly less than ideal height (6’1) can affect him. Because he has no discernible weaknesses throwing the ball, and the arm strength to be dangerous literally anywhere on the field, it’s a terrifying thought that he’ll be able to throw to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, TE Cole Kmet and rookie WR Rome Odunze this season. I know it’s usually silly to go nuts about rookie QB production, but I’m really struggling to see how this talented of a QB with this arsenal doesn’t go crazy.

Then, there’s the rushing. No he didn’t rush for many yards at all (142), but in his first and second years he was over 380 yards on the ground. More important than his yardage, Caleb Williams is an elite scrambler – think Mahomes as a rusher – and he has scored double-digit rushing TDs in back to back seasons. Nobody should expect another 11 touchdowns on the ground at the NFL level, but five isn’t crazy right? The point is, while he’s absolutely a passer first, second and third, he's no statue out there and that’s important for fantasy success when there are so many elite running QBs around.

7. Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders (Round 1, Pick No. 13)

It’s not easy for rookie TEs to be fantasy relevant, let alone fantasy stars, but Bowers is a special talent. After nearly putting up 1,000 yards in 2022, Bowers put up 714 yards and six touchdowns this season in five fewer games for the Georgia Bulldogs. He has carved up the toughest defenses in college football for three straight seasons at Georgia, leading the team in receiving yards each year.

Bowers will come into an offense that has an established No. 1 receiver (Davante Adams), and supporting players (Jakobi Meyers, TE Mike Mayer) that will help keep defenses from focusing too much on him. Sam LaPorta had one of the best rookie TE seasons ever in 2023, and Bowers will absolutely have a chance to put forth something resembling it in 2024. The biggest concern I have for his production has little to do with Bowers himself, and everything to do with the very mediocre QB play I’m expecting from Las Vegas.

6. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (Round 1, Pick No. 2)

Having Daniels ahead of Caleb Williams likely makes sense from a fantasy perspective because of what a prolific rusher Daniels was, but – hot take incoming – I actually just believe Daniels is a better prospect overall. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards last season, more than Williams, and tossed 40 touchdown passes to Williams’ 30, with one fewer interception. And that’s before you add in that Daniels rushed for more than 1,100 yards and scored 10 times on the ground. Daniels was the more accurate QB, he was better downfield, and he’s taller, and therefore better suited to pepper the deep middle of the field where most elite QBs excel.

Of course, there are some red flags. Daniels is older than traditional top prospects, and his breakout season came in his fifth collegiate year, with no other seasons remotely approaching this success. Daniels is also at a higher injury risk based on his style of play, although I don’t concern myself too much with that aspect because that goes for any running QB. And while Caleb Williams’ supporting cast is stunning, Daniels will have Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Austin Ekeler at his disposal. Those aren’t slouches. Daniels’ rushing upside is so high that he can be a truly elite fantasy option right away, and he can paper over tough games throwing the ball in a way that Caleb Williams can’t. Both are elite, but fantasy-wise, Daniels rushing makes him a much safer bet.