Leap To Elite: Anthony Richardson Could Be 2024's League Winner At QB

In the NFL one of the surest ways to contention is to have a strong roster built around a high-performing quarterback on a rookie contract. In fantasy, the same is largely true. Having an elite QB in fantasy is a game-changer, but especially so when you’ve gotten them at a value. Elite two-way QB prices have gone up, with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts carrying second round ADPs last season, so if you’re trying to maximize your chances at an explosive team, and can stomach some risk, Anthony Richardson is your man.

It's obviously far too early to know what Richardson’s ADP is, but there are warts that he entered the league with that aren’t magically wiped away by four games played as a rookie. He came into the league considered raw as a passer, and while he only threw one interception, he also completed less than 60% of his passes. But if we’re being honest, passing is a bonus with this QB and you knew that when you drafted him last year. For what we care most about, Richardson delivered.

Rushing production is a cheat code for fantasy QBs, and the QBs who don’t produce on the ground need to be exponentially more lethal through the air to be difference makers. Both Allen and Hurts put up fairly gaudy passing stats, but their core value is how they produce as rushers. Richardson, for four games, was at their level in this regard right away.

He rushed for 35+ yards in three of his four outings, scored at least one rushing touchdown in three of four games, and logged 10 rushing attempts in half his games. He was Top 5 in rushing yards per game for a QB (34), and scored more points on the ground, per game, than either Hurts or Allen. Simply put, as a rusher of the football, no QB was more productive on a per game basis than Anthony Richardson. In 2024, he’ll also have the benefit of a healthy and engaged Jonathan Taylor sharing the backfield with him, and a Top 10 run blocking unit making holes.

So we’ve established that, as a rusher, Richardson is already elite. Whether or not he can stay healthy while rushing at this rate remains to be seen, but you can’t play fantasy scared. If he’s healthy on Draft Day, assume you’re drafting potentially the best rushing QB in the NFL right now. But he’ll still have to throw the ball some to be a legitimately elite fantasy option worth mentioning along with Hurts, Allen and Lamar Jackson. His completion rate was gross, but there are some promising stats and circumstances.

First, his head coach is Shane Steichen, who helped engineer the rise of Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator. He was brought in and then he drafted Richardson, undoubtedly looking at him as Hurts 2.0. Unlike another player with a  similar skill set, Justin Fields, the Colts also let Richardson wing it in times of need. The Colts allowed Richardson to throw the ball 37 times in Week 1, and he responded with 223 yards, a touchdown and his lone interception. He posted an 87.3 QB rating on the year, respectable, and even the ghastly, sub-60% completion rate is dragged down by an 11-25 performance in Week 3 vs. Tennessee. Aside from that game, he was over 60% in the other three matchups.

Richardson is such an exciting player. He has the size to be a goal line monster like Allen and Hurts, but he also has the acceleration and breakaway speed to be a chunk play rusher like Lamar Jackson. If the dual-threat QB is your bag, Richardson is like an evolutionary prospect, whose ceiling is unlimited if he’s unlocked as a prolific passer. Of course, you can just draft Hurts or Allen way up in the second round; while that’s a high price for QB, it’s unlikely either will leave you underwhelmed. But Richardson has every tool necessary to be right on par with those guys, and he’s going to be available a good deal later.