Low Risk, High Reward: Deshaun Watson is Now A Potential Value Rather than a Risk

Deshaun Watson has been an unfun player to talk about for a while now, but he remains very intriguing from a real life roster building perspective, and a fantasy standpoint. He’s now played for the Cleveland Browns for two seasons, but has only appeared in 12 games, and the time has come to wonder if this trade might be the worst in NFL history, and whether or not he’s a fantasy asset moving forward.

The last great season for Watson was 2020, his final campaign as a Houston Texan. He played in 16 games, threw for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. He averaged a career-best 8.9 yards per attempt, a career-best 70.2 completion percentage, and he also rushed 90 times for 444 yards and three touchdowns. He was unquestionably one of the best real-life QBs in the NFL, and a premier fantasy weapon. Then, the contract dispute and sexual harassment unpleasantness took center stage, sidelining him for a full season in 2021 while it was all sorted out, and leading to a league-altering trade.

“The Browns will receive Watson and a 2024 sixth-round draft choice (which was originally a fifth-round pick), while the Texans will receive a 2022 first-round pick (No. 13 overall), 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round choice (No. 107), a third-round pick in 2023 and a fourth-round pick in 2024. The 2022 fourth-rounder was an addition to what was previously reported.”

Watson also received a five-year, $230 million contract that was fully guaranteed. And since then, he has produced at a rate that is well below the expectations of a $230 million contract. After his suspension ended in 2022, Watson returned to the team, and Cleveland’s offense cratered as he struggled. In six games he posted a career-worst 58.2 completion percentage, and threw for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions. His yards per attempt plummeted from 8.9 to 6.5. And while it would be reasonable to chalk that up to the rust of not seeing NFL action for a year and a half, it’s tougher to explain away 2023.

The hard truth that the Browns have to stare at is that in 2023 Watson was….well…basically the same QB he was in 2022. 

Cmp % Yards TD TD% INT Y/C Y/G

2022 58.2 1,102 7 4.1 5 11.1 183.7

2023 61.4 1,115 7 4.1 4 10.6 185.8

Due to various injuries, Watson was limited to just six games in 2023. That means he played the same amount of games he did the previous season, and there were improvements that were so slight they’re not really relevant. If you combine the two seasons, you’re looking at 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions over a sample size of games that’s pretty close to a full season. In both Browns campaigns he posted an identical 4.1% touchdown rate, his yards per completion actually dropped from 11.1 to 10.6, and he was under 200 passing yards per game. And while the Browns were expected to be a run-first team with a superstar RB in Nick Chubb, Chubb got hurt extremely early in the year which should’ve forced a transition toward Watson being the focal point. But the production just wasn’t there.

Cleveland didn’t have the best offensive line by any means, but they were middle of the pack (No. 18 pass blocking line per PFF) and they were 12th in the NFL in sacks allowed (45). His receiving options were also not ideal, but he did have Amari Cooper available, who was PFF’s No. 20 WR on the year and who finished with 1,250 yards (career-high) and five touchdowns. It’s difficult to pin his failures in 2023 on external factors, especially when you peek under the hood at some of his analytics.

Watson’s adjusted air yards per attempt was 9.5 in 2020, when he lit it up in Houston, and was never under 7.8 as a Texan. In two seasons with the Browns, that number has fallen to six, and 6.3. His adjusted net yards per attempt in Cleveland have come in at 4.79 and 5.27, both well below even his worst season in Houston by that metric (6.63 in 2019). And while this is more of a real-life football stat, it does affect fantasy production because a poor percentage makes it difficult to sustain drives and accumulate stats; Watson’s Success % (defined as a pass gaining at least 40% of yards required on first down, 60% of yards required on second down and 100% on third or fourth down) was a career-worst 38.3%. For comparison, his worst mark in Houston was 46.4% in 2019. Watson graded out as PFF’s No. 27 QB, just behind Ryan Tannehill and just ahead of Aidan O’Connell. If that sounds crazy, or like a mistake, remember that Joe Flacco played one fewer game than Watson, and nearly doubled Watson’s touchdown pass total.

So what we’re learning here is that while Watson’s situation in Cleveland so far maybe hasn’t been perfect, it’s also been good enough that a player of his caliber should succeed. We can’t blame rust any longer, although injuries certainly dogged him in 2023 and have to be accounted for when we digest his poor performance.

Is the electric, dual-threat QB of old gone forever? Probably, although it’s surely too early to write him off as a potential season-long QB1. His rushing attempts dropped in 2023 to just 4.3 per game, but that could be attributable to nagging injuries that eventually ended his season. If his rushing ticks back up, it’ll be likely that Watson returns value, even if his passing ceiling has come down permanently. The injuries he had in 2023 started early, and we still saw flashes of prime Watson – 289 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 vs. Tennesse, five rushing attempts, 45 yards and a rushing TD in Week 1 vs. Cincinnati – peek through. His past performances have earned him another look from fantasy managers to judge him when he’s reasonably healthy and not coming off a massive layoff. Those hoping for a him to be a steal with a Top 3 QB ceiling are likely overshooting his potential, but his current ADP per Fantasy Pros is No. 135, and he’s their No. 22 ranked QB between Baker Mayfield and Will Levis. Maybe that’s who Watson is now, but his ceiling is many many stories higher than Mayfield or Levis, and he makes much more sense as a lottery ticket for those who wait on the position.