Fantasy Football 2023 Rookie Rankings: Nos. 10-6
It’s time to get into the Top 10 rookies for this upcoming fantasy season, which is not the same as ranking dynasty rookies. The Top 10 – and today we’ll look at Nos. 10-6 – are how I believe they will impact fantasy teams in 2023 redraft formats. For the Honorable Mentions, click here. Otherwise, let’s get started.
10. Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings (Round 1, Pick 23)
Addison is a big time prospect, and he’s landed in a good offense. The Vikings threw the third-most passes in the NFL in 2022, and Addison is walking into an offense that just vacated 107 targets with veteran Adam Thielen signing in Carolina. Justin Jefferson is the alpha of this receiving game, so he will draw a ton of defensive attention wherever he lines up, which will likely leave Addison in single coverage quite a bit. That’s clearly not lost on the Vikings, who have drafted a receiver who is a polished route runner and entire game relies on being open.
What limits Addison’s ceiling just a bit is his small build; being small doesn’t automatically place a ceiling on a player, but Addison’s weaker success rates came on nine routes, outs and posts, while he put up just a 51.1% success rate vs. press coverage. He’s not very physical, so the likelihood of him blossoming into a big time WR1 isn’t likely. But Minnesota already has that No. 1, so it’s no stretch to envision Addison as a high-volume contributor right out of the gate.
9. Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns (Round 3, Pick 74)
Cleveland has an all-around receiver in Amari Cooper, and an explosive technician in Elijah Moore, whom they acquired from the Jets this offseason. In Tillman, they hope they’ve snagged themselves a big-bodied dog to make crucial tough plays and target in the end zone. Tillman has battled injuries, but his 2021 sample is awesome to see. He put up 64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games; he hasn’t made it through more than six games in any other season. He’s not necessarily a burner, but at 6’3, 215 lbs. Tillman is a player who can do damage for big plays – 14.9 career yards per reception at Tennessee – and who can abuse DBs in the end zone. Tillman secured a whopping 90.9% of his contested catch opportunities, which made up 20.4% of his targets. He’s getting an upgrade in QB with Deshaun Watson, and he competition for his role is basically Donovan Peoples-Jones. The biggest knock on his upside is that the Browns’ offense is pretty run-heavy, despite having a Pro Bowler at QB. Still, Tillman should have a pretty solid rookie year.
8. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (Round 1, Pick 25)
Kincaid plays a position which is typically not fruitful for rookie production. Before Kyle Pitts put forth the first 1,000-yard season from a TE since Mike Ditka in 2021, the best rookie TE season in recent memory was probably Evan Engram in 2017. Kincaid isn’t exactly like Pitts or Engram. Kincaid is a great athlete, but he doesn’t possess freakish athletic traits like Pitts, or blazing speed like Engram. Kincaid is a smooth route runner in a huge frame, who can create separation and be open as well as win contested catch situations. He’s also joining an offense that, aside from Stefon Diggs, has a vacancy for a No. 2 target that hasn’t been sufficiently filled by WR Gabriel Davis nor incumbent TE Dawson Knox. Knox’s presence does reek of the old Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert days in Philadelphia, where Goedert’s potential was obvious and frustratingly held back by Ertz’s competent play. However, Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in football, and he can feed multiple mouths. The Bills didn’t just invest a first rounder in Kincaid, they traded up to block the Cowboys from snagging him. They have plans for Kincaid to be a big part of the offense, and he will benefit from the bar being pretty low at the position to begin with.
7. Devon Achane, RB, Dolphins (Round 3, Pick 84)
Achane is a home run hitter, and while that type of player is important to have on real life NFL rosters, they can often leave fantasy managers frustrated. Achane ran a 4.32 40-yard dash, and he looks every bit as fast as that seems when you see his highlight reel runs at Texas A&M.
At 5’9, 185 lbs., however, there’s really almost no chance of him ever seeing big volume at the NFL level. So why would he be ranked this high? Well, he’s joined an offense that is really built for him to make the absolute most of the touches he gets. He’ll join a Dolphins backfield that has veterans Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert to take a beating, and he’ll be a bit of an afterthought when he is on the field because defenses are scared to death of WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Achane will always be running against light boxes, and he’s shown receiving chops so he can catch accurate passes from Tua Tagovailoa and take them to the house. Achane is highly unlikely to break out as an RB1 like we saw Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker become last year, but if he can get around 10-12 touches a game – questionable! – his big play ability renders him a FLEX option.
6. Jonathan Mingo, WR, Panthers (Round 2, Pick 39)
Mingo measured 6’2, 220 lbs. at the Combine, lending comparisons to D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown, fellow big-bodied playmakers out of Ole Miss. While Mingo is a big dude, he doesn’t play like either Metcalf or Brown, and if the Panthers don’t realize this then they’re probably going to be disappointed with their pick. On the flip side, if they do realize what they have, Mingo could be a matchup nightmare and major value.
Per Reception Perception, Mingo posted below-average success rates against all types of coverages, but he did thrive on slants, screens and curls. These suit him for a slot role, but the typical slot receiver is a smaller, shiftier receiver. Mingo is a monster, and as you can see from his highlight reel, he’s a tough man to take down. Slot corners tend to be smallish players, and those guys are bound to be overwhelmed by a beast like Mingo. He could be a Deebo Samuel-esque YAC monster out of the slot, and dramatically outperform his somewhat pedestrian output at Ole Miss, where he was on the outside 65% of the time. In Carolina, Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark project to be on the outside quite a bit, so the Panthers could unleash Mingo out of the slot easily, and he’ll be getting accurate passes zipped his way by the No. 1 pick in the draft, Bryce Young. That’s a recipe for a big rookie impact.