2022 Team Previews: Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Javonte Williams, RB (ADP: 21): Denver’s got about as much upside – and variance – as any team in the NFL, starting with Javonte Williams. His rookie season was a success, as he tallied more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage and scored seven touchdowns while ranking inside PFF’s Top 20 RBs. The only thing holding Williams back from being a first round pick was his volume. Williams only averaged 11.9 rushing attempts and 53.1 rushing yards per game because he was splitting time at almost a 50/50 rate with veteran Melvin Gordon. The veteran returned to the Broncos this offseason, so there will continue to be a work split. As fantasy managers, we have to decide how much more of the work Williams will garner in 2022, because this ADP is a bit high if he’s only going to run the rock 12 times per game.

Courtland Sutton, WR (ADP: 51): Sutton is a preseason fantasy darling, and I do understand the hype because he’ll finally have a bona fide elite QB tossing him the pigskin. Fantasy managers are dreaming of a version of D.K. Metcalf in orange when they see Sutton, and he’s flashed that potential. In 2019 he posted 1,172 yards and six touchdowns, averaging more than 15 yards per catch. That was some time ago though, and Sutton missed basically all of 2020, and then was underwhelming statistically in 2021 upon his return. Can it be blamed on his injuries and bad QB play? Some of it can, but he has to prove he’s recovered that beastliness down the field which he uses to house DBs on contested catches. Wilson should unlock the best version of Sutton, but the question is whether or not the best version of Sutton now will look like his 2019 breakout.

Jerry Jeudy, WR (ADP: 55): Jeudy, a first rounder in 2020, has not lived up to the hype and standard set by the other receivers in his legendary draft class. He posted a 46% catch rate as a rookie, and dealt with some injuries last season en route to a zero-touchdown campaign. Through two seasons, Jeudy has caught only 90 passes and scored three touchdowns. And yet, his ADP seems relatively bulletproof, likely because fantasy mangers probably expect Wilson to cure all Jeudy’s ills. Well, be careful. Jeudy was the third-ranked WR per PFF on the Broncos last year, and per Reception Perception Jeudy’s route running hasn’t progressed a ton from his days at Alabama, when he entered the season considered an elite and NFL-ready route runner. Jeudy has also struggled with contested catches, which are probably contributing to his weak TD numbers. Tim Patrick’s season ending injury is good news from a fantasy value standpoint for Jeudy, because Patrick has been every bit as good as Jeudy without the hype, and was a threat to be this team’s WR2. Wilson has supported two fantasy relevant receivers almost every year of his career, so Jeudy should be good, but there aren’t any guarantees. I am uncomfortable at this ADP, and would much prefer Sutton two picks earlier.

Russell Wilson, QB (ADP: 76): Wilson is the straw that will stir Denver’s drink. Every skill player here is counting on him to deliver a much more dangerous offense than we’ve seen here for years, and his track record says he will. Wilson’s ADP is always pretty high because for the majority of his career, he was bankable for a Top 10 finish. Wilson’s calling card is a high TD%; he has thrown 30+ touchdown passes in five of his last seven seasons, despite playing in one of the NFL’s more run-heavy schemes for his whole career. Wilson got to more than 4,000 yards twice in his last three seasons, which should continue here where Pete Carroll isn’t around to rein him in. Yes, he’s leaving some great options in Seattle in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but the Broncos don’t have slouches. This is legitimately exciting!

But there are some pitfalls/red flags. When Wilson is allowed to “cook,” we sometimes see an interception spike. We also have seen him develop insane chemistry with Metcalf and Lockett, which he cannot have yet with Sutton and Jeudy because he hasn’t been there long enough yet. Lastly, Wilson can run, but he doesn’t. At least not enough for our liking. He rushed for six touchdowns in 2014, and hasn’t topped three since. His rushing yards per game dropped to just 13.1 last year, which is pocket passer territory. If Wilson’s done being a dynamic rusher, it’s hard to justify him warranting a Top 75 pick. As excited as we are about these skill players, they’re very comparable to his options with the Seahawks. Wilson in Denver is probably not much different than he was in Seattle. That’s a good QB, and a fantasy relevant one, but one who is usually a bit overdrafted.

**Melvin Gordon, RB (ADP: 98): So everyone’s trying to figure out how much more of the workload Denver will give to Javonte Williams, and it looks like we’ve collectively decided a lot based on Gordon going nearly 70 picks later. The problem with that is Gordon’s opportunities weren’t foolish wastes of time by a stubborn coaching staff. Gordon ranked three spots ahead of Williams per PFF, averaged the same yards per carry and doubled the rookie up in rushing touchdowns. Gordon has posted double digit touchdowns in five of the last six seasons, and in that lone season with single digits, the single digit was nine. He’s a touchdown maven, a capable contributor as a receiver, and a player Denver will definitely utilize often. There’s a non-zero chance that Williams shoves the “old man” aside at some point and takes over, but there was no evidence of that looming in 2021. This is an excellent value for Gordon, and if Williams gets hurt and this whole gig belongs to Gordon, there’s RB1 upside.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE (ADP: 129): Albert Okwuegbunam has some breakout hype, and it’s unclear why. He has the starting job now, and Wilson has made decent use of his TEs in the past, but the excitement is pure speculation. Okwuegbunam hasn’t shown incredible explosiveness in small bursts, nor was he ever really pushing Noah Fant for playing time, so the excitement is a bit of a mystery to me. I’m not particularly interested.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

K.J. Hamler, WR (ADP: 246): Hamler is a burner who got hurt last season and wasn’t able to put up any numbers. Hamler is an interesting player in that he’s the best bet for Denver to take the top off of a defense, and he could be a good complement to someone like Jeudy running intermediate routes. If you squint, you can see Lockett-ish potential in Hamler, but that’s kind of a stretch at this point. Hence, an after-No. 250 ADP.

Greg Dulcich, TE (ADP: 375): Dulcich is a big hog out of UCLA who scored five touchdowns for the Bruins in back-to-back seasons. Rookie TEs are usually not good fantasy bets, but Dulcich doesn’t have any established players in front of him and could have a high-TD year like Pat Freiermuth did for Pittsburgh in 2021. That’s not a prediction, just an acknowledgment it’s possible. Dulcich is a nice little dynasty league rookie draft flyer.

 

Raimundo Ortiz