2022 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Aaron Jones, RB (ADP: 16): Jones is an elite rusher and receiver and is everything we want in an RB1 except for one little thing…he doesn’t see as much volume as we want. Jones checked in as PFF’s No. 5 RB and posted a 9.9% RB DVOA per Football Outsiders. He also figures to see an increase in his receiving volume with the departure of superstar WR Davante Adams, and deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the Packers’ decision to not replace him with any meaningful additions. That uptick in receiving volume could aid in Jones being a bit less variable from week to week, and cover his underwhelming usage as a pure rusher. Jones has never carried the ball more than 236 times, and has always operated with another RB receiving significant work. Previously, it was Jamaal Williams, and now it is A.J. Dillon, who is a real threat to Jones’ status. Still, Jones is proven, and has the trust of Aaron Rodgers, which is more than just about every other pass-catcher on this team can say. Jones is currently the 10th RB off the board and I believe he will return value on that.

A.J. Dillon, RB (ADP: 52): Dillon looms as a massive – literally and figurative – threat to Jones’ status as this backfield’s alpha. While Jones was impressive in the under the hood metrics, Dillon wasn’t far behind in any of them. Dillon actually ranked ahead of Jones per PFF, coming in as the No. 3 RB in football by their grading system, and was one spot behind him in Football Outsiders’ RB DVOA. He saw less volume, but still eclipsed 1,000 yards from scrimmage, proving his own worth in the receiving game, and he totaled seven touchdowns. Some may see these two as cannibalizing one another and dragging down each other’s value; I see an offense that desperately needs both of them. While everyone argues over who Rodgers’ No. 1 WR will be, might I submit a different concept? Maybe it doesn’t matter! Rodgers can spread the ball around with the best of them, and these two RBs will be the real focal points of the offense. They can split carries with efficiency, and catch the ball too. These guys are both startable options, and in the event of an injury to one of them, the other gains league-winning RB1 upside.

Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP: 92): Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs, so it feels wrong to not be incredibly enthusiastic about him for fantasy in 2022. And yet…I’m not. Rodgers is as efficient as it gets, and he’s as mistake-free a QB as you’ll find. But there’s no way around what a massive blow it is for him to lose Davante Adams – a guy who accounted for 30% of Rodgers’ targets and scored 11 touchdowns –and not replace him with a WR of significance. When you add Marquez Valdes-Scantling into the mix, Rodgers has lost 224 targets from last season, and replacing them with incredibly questionable options. It wasn’t long ago when we were wondering whether Rodgers was done as an elite fantasy QB. Prior to these two MVP seasons, he had back-to-back campaigns in which he threw 25 and 26 touchdowns, and played in just seven games the year before that. While I do expect Rodgers to be the same elite player he has always been, the volume will inevitably drop with worse receiving options and probably the best backfield in the NFL. At age 38, he’s not running meaningfully anymore, so that leaves you with a solid, not great fantasy QB. Is he someone you can trust as a weekly option? Of course, but there are higher ceilings, so don’t overpay. At this ADP, you aren’t, but be wary if it rises.

Allen Lazard, WR (ADP: 103): Lazard is being crowned the new WR1 for Rodgers, and some are counting on him being hypertargeted like Adams used to be. Yes, Rodgers has hypertargeted his top options in the past, when they were Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Lazard hasn’t proven that level of skill yet, and I’d argue he never will. He ranked as PFF’s No. 80 WR last season, and has never surpassed 60 targets or 40 catches in a season. Yet now he’s supposed to be the leading man for the Packers? I don’t buy it. His familiarity with Rodgers may help him lead the team in targets, but this is going to be a passing game that spreads the ball around a lot, and has much more dynamic talents than Lazard. This ADP is low-risk, but I have a feeling it’s going to rise as we approach Draft Day, and he’s going to become a bust risk.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Robert Tonyan, TE (ADP: 189): Tonyan is interesting for an offense that’s lost so many targets, but his breakout season didn’t really involve volume. He was only targeted 52 times in 2020, creating his value based on scoring 11 touchdowns. That was an insane number that was sure to come down, and last year prior to his injury Tonyan averaged 2.3 receptions per game and scored only twice in eight games. Could Tonyan have another TD spike? Sure. Why bet on it though when other cheap TEs have much more secure volume?

Christian Watson, WR (ADP: 161): Watson has an interesting physical profile, but he’s coming from a low-volume offense in college at North Dakota State where he never eclipsed 800  yards or 50 catches, and also never faced elite competition. Now, some are looking at him to walk into the NFL and develop a rapport with Rodgers, who notoriously doesn’t look at WRs he does not trust. Mix in the fact that injuries have kept Watson from practicing, and I’m pretty uninterested in him in redraft leagues at the moment. Dynasty managers…feel free to take the shot because he could be very good.

Romeo Doubs, WR (ADP: 174): Doubs, a fourth-round rookie out of Nevada, is the head-turner of this offseason’s training camp breakouts. You can’t go on any fantasy football site without reading a blurb about how good he’s been. Hey, you never know! Doubs is a big dude, and he put up legit numbers as a senior, notching 80 receptions, 1,109 yards and 11 touchdowns, building on a similar junior season. The hype is reminiscent of Marquez Callaway from the Saints last year, and the issue of trust with a rookie that I brought up with Watson extends to Doubs as well. But at this ADP, there’s no risk at all, so if you want to try catching lightning in a bottle have at it.

Sammy Watkins, WR (ADP: 178): Watkins is one of two receivers on this team who actually has experience as a big-time NFL WR, even if it was in 2015. Since then, Watkins has been a mess of either injuries, inconsistency, or flat-out irrelevant play. He hasn’t totaled more than three touchdowns since 2017, and I wouldn’t count on that rebounding in 2022. It’s slightly tempting to see the glossy name in this sea of mediocrity, but he’s just as mediocre as the rest of them. Do not bite.

Sleeper Class (200 & later) 

Randall Cobb, WR (ADP: 295): Cobb is the other guy on this team with experience as a high-level receiver, and his best years came with Rodgers. Cobb certainly has the MVP’s trust, but he no longer has the pep in his step to be a difference-maker. Cobb’s ceiling is FLEX-ish emergency option in full-PPR formats. Relying on him for anything else is a recipe for disappointment. Don’t let the big name suck you in, because he’s past his prime and hasn’t caught 40 passes since 2019, or 60 passes since 2017.