Better Than You Think: Derek Carr Has Been Given The Tools To Become Elite

When NFL conversation turns to the AFC West, it is often some form of “Look at those QBs now, poor Derek Carr.” But what if Carr is closer to the same level of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson than most people think? There’s quite a bit of data that suggests we are underrating Carr, and 2022 might be the season that comes to fantasy fruition.

Let’s begin with his production. Carr set career-highs in passing yards (4,804) and 282.6 yards per game and did so while losing his best deep threat, Henry Ruggs, and missing Darren Waller for a chunk of the season. Hunter Renfrow stepped up in 2021, but aside from him Carr didn’t have another WR in PFF’s Top 85 for the full season. Carr also posted a 3.7% TD rate, a pretty low mark for him and one that’s due for positive regression with Waller healthy and Davante Adams in the fold.

Carr had some impressive metrics too despite the underwhelming receiving corps. He ranked inside the Top 10 of Defensive Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and had a Top 12 QB DVOA per Football Outsiders. Carr also finished seventh in Effective Yards (4,826), 281 more yards than he actually threw for. Those yards are much more likely to be realized with Adams catching passes alongside Renfrow and Waller. Carr had a Top 12 Passing grade from PFF, and despite his reputation for relying heavily on safe checkdown passes, he was tied for eighth in yards per pass attempt; the QBs he tied with were Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins. Carr also made 41 “Big Time Throws,” a metric tracked by PFF that measures passes with “excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” He was fifth in that category, behind only Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Tom Brady and Kyler Murray Oh, and Carr did all this behind the NFL’s 22nd-best pass blocking offensive line.

Hopefully we’ve established that Carr is a lot better than he’s given credit for. Thing is, any great QB needs help. Tom Brady looked like he was on the downslope of his career before heading to Tampa Bay. Give him Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and suddenly he’s immortal again. Having Adams join the team is incredibly important for Carr, and could take him from being a solid streamer to a legitimate every-week option. It was discussed here, but Adams PFF’s No. 2 receiver in 2021, graded neck-and-neck with Cooper Kupp who won the receiving triple crown. Adams has scored double-digit touchdowns in five of the last six seasons, and was the third-most targeted receiver in football in the red zone last season. 28.3% of his targets came in the red zone, as well as all 11 of his touchdowns. The rest of the league knows this, and they’ll undoubtedly be game planning for him when the Raiders are close. That only opens up opportunities for Waller, whose prospects were discussed here, and Renfrow, who earned a Top 15 receiving grade.

In total, Carr is an underrated player in terms of his own ability, and he will now have multiple elite receiving options sharing the field with him, as well as a strong running game. Carr doesn’t have rushing upside, but that’s pretty much the only chink in his armor heading into 2022. He will need to throw for more touchdowns to break into the weekly QB1 discussion, but that’s possible with arguably the NFL’s best receiving corps at his disposal. I’m high on Carr entering this season, and expect him to be one of the biggest bargains in fantasy when draft day rolls around.