On The Move: Breaking Down Matt Ryan On The Colts

Matt Ryan is the latest retread veteran to take the reins of the Colts offense that has all the pieces in place for a deep playoff run, but has been shackled by the limitations of its general. Ryan is trying to lead them where Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz couldn’t, but the ship may have sailed on him being that guy. We saw Matthew Stafford step into a situation with improved weaponry and get himself a ring, but is Ryan still on that level? And have the Colts’ built up talent on par with what the Rams gave Stafford?

2021 was an alarming season for Ryan. It’s understandable. He’s 36 years old, and 2022 will be his 15th season in the league. He threw the ball 560 times last year, the lowest number since 2017 despite Atlanta playing an extra game. His 3,968 yards were the first time he fell short of 4,000 yards since 2010, and his 20 touchdowns were the fewest since 2017. Some of this drop-off can be explained by non-Ryan factors; he played behind PFF’s second-worst rated pass blocking offensive line, his star WR Calvin Ridley abruptly left the team after Week 7, and he had one of football’s worst receiving groups after the team dealt longtime favorite Julio Jones during training camp. Some of the advanced metrics disagree about Ryan’s season; PFF ranked him as their 16th-best QB last season, and issued the 13th-best passing grade (76.3) which was better than Patrick Mahomes’ mark. On the other hand, Football Outsiders only gave him a -4.3% QB DVOA, a mark checking in below Jared Goff, and, ironically, Wentz.    

Ryan doesn’t play a brand of football that would shorten his career, so it does appear that Atlanta’s horrendous offensive line play and awful receiving corps are the key contributors to one of Ryan’s worst seasons. Ryan attempted only 51 passes longer than 20 yards last season, compared to 74 in 2020, and he still earned a 91.4 grade on those attempts, showing that he didn’t have time to fire downfield. He also didn’t have a single WR rank inside PFF’s Top 30, with Russell Gage coming in at No. 32. Gage is also on the Buccaneers now. On the Colts, Ryan plays behind a line that ranked 12th in the NFL, but surprisingly only 23rd as a pass-blocking unit. He does get a potential breakout No. 1 receiver in Michael Pittman, PFF’s No. 20 WR last year, as well as a truly dominant running game led by Jonathan Taylor. T.Y. Hilton and Ashton Dulin are legitimate deep threats, as is Parris Campbell if he could ever stay healthy. If Matt Ryan isn’t physically washed – and the stats do not say that he is – then he will almost certainly improve upon a fantasy-irrelevant 2021 campaign.

But improvement doesn’t mean he belongs on fantasy rosters. The comparison to Stafford is an easy one because of the offseason trade aspect of former No. 1 overall picks being sent to ready-made contenders, but does Ryan actually have the upside of Stafford? At his absolute statistical peak, Stafford has thrown for 5,000+ yards and 41 touchdowns; he did that in 2011, and then matched that TD total last season, helping produce historically incredible seasons for Calvin Johnson (then) and Cooper Kupp (now). Ryan has flirted with the 5,000-yard mark in the past but never surpassed it, and he’s also never thrown for 40 touchdowns. Stafford also went to a team that did not have a RB nearly as dominant as Taylor. In fact, their second year RB, Cam Akers, tore his Achilles in training camp and that injury led to more passing from Stafford than anyone likely planned for. In Indianapolis, Taylor’s presence should increase Ryan’s efficiency, but it definitely won’t lead to the volume he’s accustomed to in Atlanta, where they’ve struggled mightily in recent years to field a potent ground attack. His 20 touchdown passes were very low last year, but for most of his career he’s lived in the mid-to-high 20s, and that is not going to cut it in this fantasy landscape when he offers absolutely nothing as a rusher.

Anyone planning on drafting Ryan as the new Stafford needs to re-think that stance. He has the potential to be a Kirk Cousins-ish back-end QB1 type, but that is his ceiling. It’s more likely that he’s usable in favorable matchups as a streamer, or as insurance for a risky run-first QB. Colts fans should be excited for the real-life prospects of the team with a steady hand, but fantasy-wise he’s wholly unexciting, even in the new blue duds.