Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Robert Woods, WR (ADP: 46): Woods’ ADP was already perfectly acceptable, but it might be an even better bargain now with the news of star RB Cam Akers’ season being done. Woods bounced back in 2020 from an uneven 2019 in which he piled up yards, but did so in inconsistent fashion and sans touchdowns. Last year he dipped to under 1,000 yards for the first time since 2018, but he tied his career-high for touchdowns (6), set a career-high for Catch % (69.8%), and also quietly rushed 24 times for 155 yards and two scores. Now, he’s upgrading in a big way at QB from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford, and the offense could shift more toward the passing game without their projected bell cow available. It is unlikely that Woods will emerge as a bona fide WR1 for fantasy, but he should lead this offense in targets, and has the makings of a high-end, incredibly reliable WR2.
**Cooper Kupp, WR (ADP: 53): Kupp has a reputation of being a bit less consistent than Woods, but a quick check of recent history shows that Kupp has edged Woods in receptions in back-to-back seasons by a razor thin margin, put up more yards per game last year, and, critically, has better touchdown upside. Kupp lagged in that department last season, scoring only three in 15 games, but if we give Woods the benefit of the doubt after his total fell in 2019, we need to keep that same energy for Kupp. While Woods’ career-high in touchdowns is six, Kupp did that in Year 2, and followed that up with 10 in his third NFL season. Kupp was also graded as a far better player in 2020 than Woods was, earning an 81.6 mark from PFF, 18th in the NFL, compared to a 71.4 for Woods (57th). It’s against the narrative of these two, but with Kupp you’re getting very similar year-end consistency, with far more touchdown upside. I think he has the same likelihood as Woods of being a rock-solid WR2 in 2021 with Stafford at the helm, but he does have the TD potential to be a fantasy No. 1.
**Darrell Henderson, RB (ADP: 73): I wrote here that Henderson had the ability to wreck the Rams’ depth chart based on his ability, and an unfortunate injury has thrust him into the lead back role before training camp kicked off. We all had good reason to be excited about Akers’ potential in this offense, but we did see Henderson’s in 2020. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season, caight 16 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown, and nearly cracked PFF’s Top 10 RB grades. His 80.4 mark ranked 11th, just behind Jonathan Taylor (a consensus first-round pick). We haven’t seen him in a full-season workhorse role yet, so there’s a bit of dice-rolling if you decide to rely on him as an RB2 for your squad, but he did put up 1,909 rushing yards and 22 TDs in his final season at Memphis, and carry the rock 14 or more times in four games from Weeks 3-7. The outlook could change if the Rams bring in serious veteran competition, but regardless of who comes in, Henderson is receiving the first crack, and at RB31 the risk is currently well worth the reward.
Matthew Stafford, QB (ADP: 88): Fantasy owners are clearly excited about Stafford pairing with Sean McVay, and getting toys like Woods and Kupp, but I’m actually a little more subdued about it. While Stafford is a fine QB, and there’s a possibility of him having a huge season, Stafford hasn’t thrown for 30 touchdowns since 2015. And yeah, the Lions haven’t been very good for most of his time there, but he’s always had good to great wide receivers, he’s always been an extremely high-volume QB, and they’ve always had a bad defense leading to positive game scripts. Nowadays, the numbers he’s been putting up simply aren’t sufficient without rushing numbers to go along with it. For Stafford to succeed, he needs to maintain his Lions volume, which he won’t strictly off the Rams’ defense being better, and post an elite TD%. Aaron Rodgers didn’t run much, but a 9.1% touchdown rate does the trick. Lamar Jackson had putrid yardage, but he was among the best rushing QBs, and posted a 6.9% TD rate. Stafford’s TD rate is at 4.5% for his career, and his career-best mark was 6.5% in 2019. Maybe McVay’s offense leads him to a career season, but he’s probably closer to the Kirk Cousins realm than Tom Brady, and his current ADP isn’t reflecting that.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Tyler Higbee, TE (ADP: 121): Higbee is currently the 13th TE off the board, which is fine and makes sense. He’s had periods of explosiveness in this offense, and now should soak up the vast majority of TE targets with Gerald Everett gone. This is the right ADP, because his ceiling is an every-week TE; his run at the end of 2019, a five-week stretch in which he had either 100 yards, a touchdown, or both, was electric and came with Everett out of the picture. Unfortunately, his floor is pretty low as well, as he averaged only 34.7 yards per game in 2020 and finished with five touchdowns. The upgrade from Goff to Stafford is not the same for Higbee as it is for Woods and Kupp, as Stafford has consistently left fantasy owners wanting more from his TEs in Detroit. Higbee is a streamer for me, but one with a bit more upside than others around this ADP.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Xavier Jones, RB (ADP: 203): Jones is a name we’re all suddenly familiar with because he’s on the depth chart behind Henderson, and Malcolm Brown is gone. A 2020 undrafted free agent, Jones had massive production at SMU in 2017 and 2019. In his final season at SMU, Jones went off for 1,276 rushing yards and scored 25 total touchdowns. He also caught 20 passes, which hints at a potential three-down skill set. It’s not often undrafted RBs become fantasy stars, but it’s also not unheard of, and he’s in as good an offense as any to thrive. Henderson is the clear lead dog early, but having a share of Jones at this ADP is not crazy.
DeSean Jackson, WR (ADP: 293): Jackson is up there in years now, and he hasn’t played a full slate of games since 2013, but there’s a non-zero chance he is relevant in this offense. He has a QB once again with the cannon to get him the ball down the field, surrounding talent to keep defenses from focusing on him, and neither Woods nor Kupp occupy Jackson’s deep threat lane. With all that said, he hasn’t had more than six TDs since 2014 in Washington, and he hasn’t been on the field long enough to amass even 300 receiving yards since 2018. Outside of the main options that were already discussed, there’s not likely to be enough leftover work for anyone else to thrive consistently so let him prove it first.
Van Jefferson, WR (ADP: 357): Jefferson, a 2nd-round pick last season, is a promising player in a bad (for fantasy) position. He has talent, and he produced reasonably well last season with limited opportunity – 19 receptions, 220 yards, one touchdown on 31 targets – but there’s no reason to believe his opportunity will meaningfully increase this year. Maybe he’ll flash, but for fantasy relevance he’ll need Kupp or Woods to go down. If that happens, keep your eye on him, and he’s a better lottery ticket than D-Jax.
Tutu Atwell, WR (ADP: 380): Atwell, their second-round pick in this draft, is a threat/natural successor to Jackson as the field stretcher. Atwell is about as small as an NFL player can be, and his average depth of target figures to be among the league-leaders if he can find playing time. He’ll begin the year behind Jackson, and he is unlikely to be reliable in any way on a week-to-week basis. He might have a shred of value in dynasty drafts, but otherwise I’m not very interested in his fantasy prospects.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 96)
Any defense featuring Aaron Donald is going to be fantasy relevant, and this D/ST has many playmakers, but they also have to face the Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers twice apiece. For that reason, I’m unlikely to go more than a dollar in an auction, or to reach in a snake draft, which you’ll likely have to do to land them.