Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: New York Jets

New York Jets Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Michael Carter, RB (ADP: 91): Carter is rising in ADP as time marches toward everyone’s draft day, as they’re realizing that he is very likely to have a three-down role pretty quickly. While fourth round picks don’t typically garner a ton of faith, Carter is atypical. First, his competition in the Jets backfield is a low barrier to clear. Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson are both players who have been in the NFL a while, had opportunities, and failed to fully seize them. Carter was also extremely productive at UNC while sharing the work with another elite prospect, Javonte Williams, who was taken in Round 2 by the Broncos. Carter posted more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage last season, averaged eight yards per carry and scored 11 total touchdowns as a senior. He also has real receiving chops, catching more than 20 passes in three straight seasons and setting a career-best 267 yards in 2020.

I covered Carter’s prospects here, but he’s my favorite rookie RB for 2020 not named Najee Harris based upon the opportunity he should receive with the Jets, and the improvements they made to their offensive line.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Corey Davis, WR (ADP: 126): We have seen WR1 Corey Davis before, and it was underwhelming. But coming off his best season in the NFL in 2020 – 65 receptions, 984 yards, five touchdowns, all new or tying career bests – there is reason to believe he’s ready for this responsibility. I spotlighted Davis here earlier this offseason, and his fine 2020 campaign came as the No. 2 target on an offense that was in the bottom five for pass attempts. When Davis was targeted, he delivered, and what you saw was backed up by his 23.3% WR DVOA, which was ninth in the NFL. His efficiency has improved every season, and even though there are more options here than many realize, he should lead the Jets in targets and set a career-high in targets. At this ADP Davis could be a huge value.

Elijah Moore, WR (ADP: 172): Moore, the Jets’ second round pick, has hype. It’s well-earned; he’s an electric prospect, and he posted 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns last season at Ole Miss. The hurdles for Moore to be an impact player as a rookie are two-fold. First, will he see enough opportunity? The Jets might lean on the ground game rather than throwing all the pressure on rookie QB Zach Wilson, and then he’s fighting for slices of a limited pie with Davis, who we like, and Jamison Crowder. Second, the Jets were the league’s worst offense in 2020, and while just about everything is different, it’s asking a lot for so many new pieces to gel and support multiple fantasy-relevant options. Most of the players crucial to improving the offense this year are in their rookie or sophomore season (LT Mekhi Becton, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, RB Michael Carter, QB Zach Wilson, WR Denzel Mims, Moore) and that usually involves growing pains. Moore is not a guy I’m planning on drafting, but I’d pull the trigger fast on waivers if he pops early.

Tevin Coleman, RB (ADP: 176): Coleman has had his chances to be a workhorse back and it hasn’t worked out. That said, there’s likely early value to be had with him, because Carter probably isn’t going to see the full workload right out of the gate. It wouldn’t surprise me if Coleman is the starter for the Jets in the early going, which means you could potentially wring some decent games out of him before he’s usurped. You’d be crazy to rely on him, but at RB55 there’s a pinch more upside than usual that deep in the draft.

Jamison Crowder, WR (ADP: 178): Crowder has gone from a guy with a ceiling that he hasn’t touched, to a guy whose floor is his ceiling. Entering Year 7 of his career, we know who Crowder is; he’s a solid real-life receiver who can offer FLEX/WR3 value in half-PPR and full-PPR formats if he’s on a team with limited options. The Jets may be that again in 2021, but they’ve made efforts to not have Crowder be a de facto WR1 anymore. With Elijah Moore going less than 10 spots ahead of him, I’d much rather take my chances on the rookie than hope Crowder can hit his low, low ceiling.

Zach Wilson, QB (ADP: 199): Wilson intrigues me a lot. The Jets have rebuilt the left side of the offensive line, which should aid him a great deal, and they’ve put skill players in place that should allow him to succeed. His insane junior season – 33 touchdowns, three interceptions, 3,692 yards – drew comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. That’s lofty stuff, but his skill set is built for fantasy success. Wilson’s got a crazy arm, so Jets fans can expect some long TD strikes from him. And while fantasy is moving away from pocket passers, even ones with lasers like Wilson, his passing highlights have obscured his ability to hurt teams on the ground. You won’t confuse him for Trey Lance or Justin Fields, but Wilson did rush for 254 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020 for BYU. He does his damage on scrambles rather than designed runs, but he’s no stiff when he must take off. The Jets’ offense was so putrid last year that even massive improvements would take them to around the middle of the pack. I’m leaning against drafting Wilson, but he’s another one to snap up quickly if he pops. The talent is insane.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Denzel Mims, WR (ADP: 235): Mims had some flashes last season, but it was impossible for any Jet to look good on what was one of the worst teams in NFL history. He fought injuries early and finished with 23 receptions, 357 yards and no touchdowns. He did have a six-week stretch where he was at 40 yards or more in every game, and he averaged 17 yards per reception in that span. Moore has the quick-twitch ability to take short passes out of the slot to the house, and Davis has proven ability to do damage as an intermediate possession receiver, but Mims is the guy the Jets might lean on as a deep threat. He was not drafted by the current regime, so at this point he shouldn’t be on you draft day radar, but opportunity abounds in this offense where no one is truly established.

Chris Herndon IV, TE (ADP: 290): Herndon is entering Year 4, and with Wilson under center it’s make or break. He has obvious ability, but he hasn’t had a productive season yet, and the Jets have a bit of a crowded TE group now with Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft in the mix. As a Jets fan, I’d love to see Herndon put it together, but I’m not holding my breath or drafting him.

Keelan Cole, WR (ADP: 370): Cole is buried here, and for obvious reasons, but word out of OTAs is that he pulled ahead of Mims on the depth chart. That would be disappointing, as we’ve already seen four mediocre seasons from him in Jacksonville, but if we’re being fair we must acknowledge he’s never had a decent QB. I am uninterested for now, but see if he continues to play well in the preseason, because he might be a starting receiver for this team over Mims on the outside.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 360)

There are two D/STs being drafted after the Jets, and that surprises me. If you love yourself, don’t draft this defense, and don’t even try to stream them.