Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

George Kittle, TE (ADP: 25): While Travis Kelce is the hands down TE1 this draft season, Kittle must be wondering why he isn’t getting quite the same respect. While Kittle’s 2020 left much to be desired due to injury, he still showed flashes of the dominance that made Kittle vs. Kelce a debate entering last season. In eight games Kittle caught 48 passes for 634 yards and two touchdowns. After getting injured in Week 1 and missing several weeks, Kittle went for more than 100 yards and a touchdown in two of his first three games back. After Week 8, he went on injured reserve, returning for San Francisco’s final two games, in which he went for 92 and 68 yards.

San Francisco’s receiving corps is improved from last season, and their QB situation is in flux, but Kittle remains the most important pass catcher on the team. Prior to his injury-riddled campaign last year Kittle posted more than 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, being held down slightly by low career TD numbers. Kittle has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season, but that narrative can change easily. It took Kelce four seasons to score more than four touchdowns, and Kittle himself is entering Year 5 of his career. I don’t have a major quibble with taking Kelce at No. 10 overall, but fantasy owners are getting a better deal in my opinion by going RB or WR with that super early pick and grabbing Kittle at or around this ADP. You might find them with very similar year-end numbers.

Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP: 63): Mostert, in the final year of his deal, is a tough player to peg. On the one hand, his performance is pretty much beyond reproach. He has blazing speed, and he’s one of the more efficient rushers in the game, averaging 5.6 and five yards per carry, respectively, across the past two seasons. He was a little light in the touchdown department in 2020, scoring three in eight games, but he did manage eight in 2019 so he can be forgiven. The eight games is key; we haven’t seen Mostert ever hold up for a full season, and entering his age 29 season it’s unclear if we ever will. He didn’t receive significant playing time until 2019 after entering the NFL in 2105 as an undrafted free agent. He has played for five teams in that time, and it’s clear that durability is a major reason for him not hitting his ceiling. If Mostert could be counted on to be the 49ers workhorse, I’d guarantee incredible value on this ADP, but that’s not something I can do in good conscience. Mostert was graded the 13th-best RB last year per PFF last year, but due to his injury concerns and a backfield full of viable threats to his snap count, I think this is the right ADP for Mostert rather than an obvious steal.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR (ADP: 68): Aiyuk flew under the radar in last season’s historic receiver draft class, quietly becoming the 49ers’ WR1, and an effective one at that. He finished his rookie season with 60 receptions, 758 yards and seven total touchdowns, often taking off with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. Aiyuk benefitted from injuries to Samuel and Kittle at various times, but that also means opposing defenses were honed in on him in the passing game. Aiyuk graded as PFF’s No. 20 receiver, and he posted 835 Effective Yards. That’s important, because it is a signifier that his performance was even better than we realize, and he was held back by his quarterback play. He spent much of the year with Jimmy Garoppolo injured, and even when he was healthy, Jimmy G is no great shakes. It’s unclear at this point whether Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance will be his QB, and both have their warts. Ultimately, it’s probably in Aiyuk’s best interest to begin with Garoppolo, since he is a more traditional passer who raises Aiyuk’s ceiling and has rapport with him. The QB question is a concern for me, but talent is not; as the 26th WR off the board, this is a fine ADP.

Deebo Samuel, WR (ADP: 84): Samuel is going just a few picks after Aiyuk, because it isn’t clear which of them is the alpha of the receiving corps. They are similar talents, with Samuel edging out Aiyuk in the physicality department, but that also leads to more time in the trainer’s room. Samuel was limited to only seven games in 2020, but he was showing improvement upon a solid rookie season. Samuel was up to 4.7 receptions per game, and 55.9 yards, all with mediocre QB play. Samuel is also a threat on the ground, having rushed eight times for 26 yards. The prior season Samuel was very involved as a rusher, toting the rock 14 times for 159 yards and three scores. This is pure speculation, but I expect Aiyuk to lead the WRs in targets this season, but Samuel is going to have more frequent boom plays, either via the pass or the run. That’s because of his absolutely ridiculous mark of 12.7 yards after the catch per reception. Samuel plays incredibly hard, and he will be an efficient WR2 for as long as you have him in your lineup. But he hasn’t made it through a full season in his NFL career yet and I don’t expect him to make it through 2021 unscathed either. Because of that, I’d rather have Aiyuk at his ADP.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Trey Sermon, RB (ADP: 119): I covered Sermon in this article post draft. Sermon possesses big play potential – he averaged more than seven yards per carry across his final two seasons at Ohio State – and he poses a severe threat to Mostert’s job security in this offense, which is favorable to all rushers. The lone knock on Sermon as a player is maybe durability, as he has never logged more than 165 carries in a season. The bigger concern is that Mostert is a genuinely good NFL RB who very well could relegate Sermon to an apprentice role all season until his contract expires. Sermon will see the field now that Jeff Wilson Jr. is down with a torn meniscus, and there’s a chance he performs well enough to earn a big role. At this point in the draft you won’t find much more upside than this, so I’d absolutely love him as the 44th RB off the board. Sermon has league-winning capability if he can secure the three-down workload.           

Trey Lance, QB (ADP: 178): Lance was a controversial pick at No. 3 overall, coming off playing just one game in 2020 at North Dakota State. This ADP doesn’t tell us much because if he is named the starter during training camp it’ll skyrocket, and if he’s not the starter he is irrelevant in all but dynasty leagues on draft day. But, we can still think about what we expect of him if he’s the guy. Lance has a long way to go as a passer; he’s raw and did not face stiff defensive competition in college, so his passing numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Even then, 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns are solid, but not eye-popping. We have to love the zero interceptions portion of his line but again, it’s not SEC defenses he’s facing. As a rookie in the NFL I’m not drafting Trey Lance for big passing numbers. He rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019, which is the meat and potatoes for Lance’s value. He could be an explosive rusher from the QB position, and at his size he could be a Josh Allen/Cam Newton-esque threat in short yardage and goal line situations. He’d still have a low week-to-week floor as a rookie because I don’t expect him to throw the ball much, or very efficiently, so he will need big rushing yardage and touchdowns. But the fantasy upside is absolutely there for him to be an every week starter; I mentioned he’ll need big rushing yardage and touchdowns, but in this offense if he’s a starter I’d expect him to get them.

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB (ADP: 183): Wilson was likely just a pure handcuff entering training camp, and now that he has a knee injury you can ignore him in drafts completely. The reason I’m mentioning him is that he actually is a solid NFL RB who averaged an impressive 4.8 yards per carry last season. When healthy, Wilson could make a dent in Mostert’s or Sermon’s carries, and also vulture TDs. He’s not necessarily fantasy relevant, but he can impact those who are.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (ADP: 307): Garoppolo isn’t dead yet! He could very well be the starting QB for this offense, and while I wouldn’t draft him or be particularly excited, he did throw for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns just two years ago. Should Jimmy G open 2021 as the starting QB, he could be a sneaky streaming option. 

Wayne Gallman, RB (ADP: 288): Gallman looms as an unexciting stealer of fantasy value like Wilson. Gallman spent three uninspiring seasons on the Giants’ depth chart before being thrust into action last year when Saquon Barkley and free agent addition Devonta Freeman both got hurt. He was shockingly useful for fantasy, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring six touchdowns on what was a truly disgusting offense. Still, PFF wasn’t overly impressed, ranking him 35th, and this depth chart is too stacked. Keep an eye on him in case of injuries, but otherwise he’s not a stab I’d take just to have a piece of this backfield.

**Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 133)

They are currently the seventh D/ST taken, and that is value. Usually D/ST’s are just stream worthy, and last year San Fran was…because they lost Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman last year, among others. They’re healthier now, and with Bosa back they’ll wreak havoc as one of the NFL’s most underrated units. They play in a tough division which caps their ceiling a tad, but San Francisco D/ST blowup games are going to be week-winners for sure.