Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews 2021: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Mike Evans, WR (ADP: 39): Evans is one of many Buccaneers who figure to be very fantasy relevant in 2021. The crowded nature of the Bucs’ skill position group limits the ceiling of all of them, but Evans has been the most consistent Buccaneer for years. He has yet to post fewer than 1,000 yards in any season of his seven-year career, and with Tom Brady at the helm he unsurprisingly set a career-high with 13 touchdowns. His yards per game dipped a bit, and he had some off weeks, but at the end of the season Evans is going to finish as a WR1 or high end WR2. He does every season, so just build a team with some consistency surrounding him so you can ride out the occasional dud.

Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 42): Godwin is going just three picks after Evans, despite having a very disappointing 2020 relative to his ADP. Godwin finished the season with 840 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games, while battling various injuries. His target share took a hit once Antonio Brown entered the picture, and while the year-end numbers were okay, he finished as a WR1 only 16.7% of the time. That’s a player who can help your team at this ADP, and someone who frustrated you last year when you burned a second round pick on him. Godwin’s 2019 campaign was ridiculous, and in the right offense there’s no doubt he can be a fantasy WR1. But in Tampa Bay, with these players around him and Tom Brady spreading the love, he strikes me as a high-floor WR2. It’s worth noting Godwin did post the fifth-best WR DVOA (28%) in the NFL last season, and had 930 effective yards, 90 more than his actual 840 yards. If you’re big on snapping up players who had some bad luck the prior year, Godwin is a prime target in what should be a high-scoring offense.

Ronald Jones, RB (ADP: 66): Jones is tricky, because he’s talented enough to vastly outperform this ADP – he’s the 29th RB off the board currently – or he could be a total dud stuck in a 50/50, unpredictable time share. Per PFF, Jones was clearly the best runner in the Tampa Bay backfield, grading out at 74.6, inside the Top 25. As a runner, he was elite, earning an 84.7 grade, but his overall grade is dragged down by his terrible receiving (29.6) and marginally better pass blocking. Those other aspects are anchors dragging down his snap percentage; he can’t be trusted to catch the ball or protect Brady, so he’s got to do all his damage on early downs. Complicating matters even further, Leonard Fournette is also in the mix and he’s proven to be an effective goal line rusher, meaning Jones doesn’t even have short yardage opportunity locked up. I expect Jones to be the nominal starter, but even at this ADP he is not a RB I want to rely on. It’s a bit risky for my blood, and I am okay passing on him here.

Leonard Fournette, RB (ADP: 72): Fournette is likely to retain his “receiving back” role from last year, even though he’s not particularly great at it. Averaging 3.8 yards per carry last season, Fournette requires volume to thrive, and he’s not going to find it with Tampa Bay unless Jones gets hurt. The offseason addition of Giovani Bernard could be a problem if he survives training camp cuts, because Bernard is exclusively a receiving back who would significantly threaten Fournette’s playing time. Should Fournette assume a three-down role due to a Jones injury, he’ll be valuable, but I don’t like drafting guys who need an injury. Whereas Jones has much more efficiency in his game, and can chew up big chunks in limited work, Fournette isn’t that guy. I’d stay away from this backfield entirely if possible, but when pickings get slim I’d much rather take a stab at Jones than Fournette.

Tom Brady, QB (ADP: 73): Brady is flat out timeless. After a bit of a rocky start in Tampa, Brady found his groove with the best skill players of his career and finished with 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns. Fantasy football has become the land of the running QB, but there’s room for the old pocket passer prototype if the volume and efficiency are there. With Brady averaging about 290 yards per game – and that was with all new receivers and no training camp – the opportunity will be there. The Bucs are going to be throwing the ball all over the place, and Brady hasn’t lost a damn thing in any area of his game. PFF graded him second (93.3) behind only Aaron Rodgers, who won the MVP. Currently the ninth QB off the board, I suspect in real drafts you’ll be able to snap up Brady even later than this ADP. I’m fine with him at pick No. 73 though, he’s about as rock solid as you’ll find, with plenty of blowup game potential. He had seven games in 2020 with three or more touchdowns, and seven games with 300+ yards.

Rob Gronkowski, TE (ADP: 105): Gronkowski was better than I thought he’d be in 2020 – 45 receptions, 623 yards and seven touchdowns – and year I’m still not going near him. There’s no doubt Gronk will have games where he provides value, but you’ll never be able to predict them. Aside from the top dogs, almost every TE in fantasy is unpredictable, but Gronk’s lows are extreme. He had nine games with two or fewer receptions, and eight games with fewer than 30 yards. He’s still an effective red zone target, but so are all of Brady’s top three wide receivers, and Gronk has to compete with other good options at his position. Don’t waste the pick, there are other TEs with much more upside, and at the very least better target share.

Antonio Brown, WR (ADP: 112): Brown is as good a third option as any team in the NFL has, and he has unquestionable chemistry with Brady. I covered Brown’s upside here, but it’s worth going over again. He put up 45 receptions, 483 yards and four touchdowns in just eight games, with zero training camp. His connection with Brady grew noticeably as the season went on, and he averaged nearly seven receptions per game and 89 yards over the final three weeks of the season. Brown is going to be an integral part of the Bucs’ passing game, and he could break out as a high-end WR2 if Evans or Godwin misses time with injury. Receivers going in his range – Marquise Brown (No. 116), DeVante Parker (No. 117) Jaylen Waddle (No. 118), Michael Pittman Jr. (No. 121) – all have major questions about usage, passing volume in their offense, or their own limited production. Brown has none of these issues, a future Hall of Fame QB, and a high-powered, pass-first offense. Oh, not to mention pedigree as a longtime WR1 overall. This ADP is gold, and he’s a player to definitely target. Hopefully, his ADP doesn’t shoot up as we near draft day.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Giovani Bernard, RB (ADP: 176): Bernard’s ADP isn’t particularly high, but it’s still too high. He was signed as a potential third-down/receiving back for the Bucs, because Jones and Fournette aren’t all that great, but there’s no guarantee Bernard is that good anymore either. He quietly graded as just slightly better than Fournette as a receiver last season, lowkey serving best as a pass blocker. The Bucs invested in a rookie, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, last season and he’s still around. There’s simply no upside for Bernard fantasy-wise, as he’s never going to hold a three-down role here even with multiple injuries. Leave him on waivers.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

O.J. Howard, TE (ADP: 217): Howard is a player I have a hard time quitting. He’s always disappointed, but he didn’t get a real chance last season with Brady because he went down after just four games. Even still, he had 11 catches, 146 yards and two touchdowns. Gronk is the primary, and Cameron Brate is still lurking, but Howard is a guy to pay attention to in the first few weeks as a possible waiver add. The talent is there, and few QBs can use a talented TE like Tom Brady.

Scotty Miller, WR (ADP: 264): Miller is going to have a hard time finding snaps with this loaded receiving corps, but in deep, deep leagues he might be worth a spin. If one of Tampa Bay’s receivers goes down, Miller is the next man up and he’s flashed chemistry with Brady. He had 501 yards and three scores last year, and he’s got blazing speed.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB (ADP: 279): Vaughn has third round pedigree, which ain’t nothing, and the guys in front of him are flawed. There’s a world where Vaughn becomes the Bucs’ favored option on passing downs, and he has a minute opportunity of taking over the backfield with a few injuries. I don’t recommend him as a handcuff, but he should be monitored in the early going just in case.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 113)

The Bucs are returning everyone from last year’s Super Bowl defense, which was one of the NFL’s best. They weren’t a wildly impactful fantasy defense, but they are very solid and they have shutout potential in the right matchups. They’re currently the fifth D/ST off the board, which sounds about right to me.