NCAA Tournament 2018 Bracket Busters: The Best Upset Picks This March Madness
Are you looking to spice up your bracket with upsets? No one can really predict them with any kind of certainty, but I have some factors that are useful for spying exciting picks. Take a look at my favorite bracket busters and decide which ones you want to pick for Cinderella runs. I can’t guarantee anything, but I can say with honesty I think these are solid choices.
Loyola Chicago (No. 11)
Best Wins: @ Florida
Impressive Losses: None
The Loyola Ramblers are a team I have not seen play, and unless you live in Illinois chances are you haven’t either. But they have several very encouraging aspects that make them interesting. This team’s core is laden with upperclassmen; their top three scorers are all juniors or seniors, and the only freshman in the top five players in terms of minutes is their 6’9 center who is the team’s second-leading rebounder.
The Ramblers lack a clear-cut go-to guy, instead spreading the ball around and finishing the season with five players averaging double-digits. They are tough to stop, as six of the seven rotation players averaging at least 19 minutes all shoot better than 37 percent from the 3-point line. Collectively, the team shoots a tick under 40 percent from deep, giving them a puncher’s chance against anyone.
Their main issue is size. Loyola Chicago’s tallest regular is 6’9, and no one else averaging double-digit minutes per game stands taller than 6’6.
They are matched up with the Miami Hurricanes, a big, athletic team that’s been tested repeatedly in the ACC. They will be no easy matchup, and their size may chew up the Ramblers in the paint. But Miami is also very young, and lacking in elite shooting. Even if the Ramblers can’t pull this off, they will make it fun as hell with their bombs-away attack.
South Dakota State (No. 12)
Best wins: Iowa, Buffalo, @ Ole Miss,
Impressive Losses: @ Wichita State
When you’re doing your research, Mike Daum is going to stand out. He has averaged 23.8 points per game and 10.4 rebounds, clearly dominating as the best player in his conference and one who has led his team against big conference/tournament-caliber opposition.
At 6’9, 245 lbs. he won’t be bullied by anyone, and he’s proven he can stroke if from 3, knocking down treys at a 42.1 percent clip.
Daum is an absolute monster, but he’s not the only guy to worry about. Guard David Jenkins Jr. added 16 a game this season, and Reed Tellinghuisen added 12 points, creating a three-man core that has no issues letting it fly from downtown. All three players attempt more than four 3-pointers a game, and all of them shoot 38.7 percent or better. South Dakota State has a bona fide NBA prospect, and has been tested against quality opponents. They face No. 5 Ohio State, a team with glossy pedigree, but one that is shallow and may not have anyone as good as Daum. A 12-seed almost always defeats a 5-seed in every tournament, and the Jackrabbits are definitely my favorite of the four No. 12s.
Murray State (No. 12)
Best wins: @ Wright State
Impressive Losses: Auburn
Murray State’s resume is a bit lacking, but their guard play is stellar. Senior Jonathan Stark averages more than 21 a game, and freshman guard Temetrius Morant, who only weighs in at a wispy 170 lbs., averaged 12.6 points and an impressive 6.6 boards. Guards usually rule the day in the NCAA tournament, and Stark in particular is a senior who knocks down more than 40 percent of his 3s. We have not yet gotten to Terrell Miller Jr., their best all-around player, who stands 6’8 and averaged 14.7 points and 8.3 rebounds.
This team is all offense, averaging just shy of 80 points per game, and ranking inside the Top 60 in the nation. They also were in the Top 50 of 3-point shooting percentage (37.9 percent).
They are facing a stiff test in West Virginia, who have experience and a smothering press that can break any team’s spirit, but Murray State’s talented guards and high-percentage shooting gives them a shot. I did not pick them in my bracket, but I recognize the potential here.
Stephen F. Austin (No. 14)
Best wins: @ LSU, @ Northwestern
Impressive Losses: @ Mississippi State, @ Missouri
Stephen F. Austin is clearly a long shot, but we’ve seen this movie before!
The Lumberjacks rely heavily on a trio of scorers – T.J. Holyfield, Shannon Bogues and Kevon Harris – who, shocker, all kill it from beyond the arc. No No. 14 seed is a “good” bet in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s often helpful to look at the high seed too when you’re trying to pick out a nice upset.
Texas Tech has several inexperienced players in key roles, and their top scorer, Keenan Evans, shot a ghastly 31.4 percent from deep on more than four attempts a game. Beyond Evans, the next two top scorers are both freshman, and that’s the end of the list of double-digit scorers for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is talented, but they haven’t been here. We’ve seen Stephen F. Austin shock the world, so you know at the very least you’ll have fun watching.
Georgia State (No. 15)
Best wins: Montana, @ UMass
Impressive Losses: @ Ole Miss, @ Dayton
This is the loooongest of my long shots, because 15-seeds rarely win. But hey…you never know right? Like Stephen F. Austin, we’ve seen Georgia State create magic before.
Georgia State is led by D’Marcus Simmonds, a one-man wrecking crew who averaged 21.2 points per game, 5.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. His 3-point percentage (28.7 percent) is hideous, especially on four attempts a night, but his sustained output means he’s the type of player who can get his against any defense. An upset-minded mid-major needs that kind of bulldog against a defense as stifling as Cincinnati’s, which was among the nation’s toughest.
Beyond Simmonds, what really gives Georgia State a tiny sliver of hope is Cincinnati’s struggles on offense. The Bearcats’ leading scorer was putting up just 13 points a game, and they ranked just 156th in the nation in points per game. Of course, part of that is their defensive mindset, but another part is their 148th ranked field goal percentage (41.8 percent) and brutal 3-point percentage (35.7 percent), which ranked 140th. This team struggles to score, and those kinds of teams are ripe for shockers.