Canelo vs. GGG Odds: 3 Major Factors Before Betting The Big Fight
Gennady “GGG” Golovkin is not the A-side of his megafight vs. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez later tonight, but he is a favorite according to SportsBook.ag. GGG is -160 to defeat Alvarez, boxing’s biggest draw, in what promises to be the best fight of 2017, and possibly of the last several years. Before I make a recommendation on where to put your money, I think this fight deserves some thought. Here are the most important things to consider before making your pick.
Styles Make Fights
“Styles make fights” is a boxing adage as old as time itself, but it’s lasted because it is true. Golovkin’s style is undeniably crowd-pleasing; he is the ultimate pressure fighter, with only four opponents in his pro career lasting the distance, and only one of those fights being a 12-rounder. His style, however, is what many will point to as the main reason Canelo can win.
Canelo, despite being the most famous active Mexican fighter, does not fight in the traditional “Mexican style.” In fact, that is how Golovkin has taken to billing himself, and he was famously shown a classic Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. fight upon hooking up with his current trainer Abel Sanchez. Canelo, unlike Golovkin, does not often pressure his opponents. Alvarez has tremendous power, but he wields it as a counter-puncher, letting his opponent make himself vulnerable and clocking them when they leave themselves open. Canelo is at home when under pressure, and his best performances have come against the likes of James Kirkland, Alfredo Angulo, and Josesito Lopez.
All of those fighters are brave brawlers, but none of them had the skill to avoid Canelo’s best shots. This figures to work in Canelo’s favor, as Golovkin thrives when stalking. Their styles are a sure mixture for violence.
But this is where it gets really interesting. While Golovkin pressures fighters moreso than just about anyone in the fight game, he does it on another level. Golovkin is relentless, but he uses technique instead of bravado. Golovkin, unlike the three fighters I named a bit earlier, knows how to move his head. Golovkin does not follow his opponent and trade; he uses footwork to back his opponent wherever he wants them, and then pummels them to the body and head.
Golovkin’s style could work in Canelo’s favor, or he could be so skilled that he wears out Canelo just like everyone else. But I won’t sit the fence; I think Golovkin’s skill level is underrated because of his gaudy KO totals, and this pressure will hurt Alvarez over time.
Size
Alvarez is a naturally bigger man than Golovkin, which is why we’ve all pined for him to face the true middleweight champion. I honestly believe that Canelo’s power carries to the 160-lb. weight class, and can even be effective at higher classes. BUT…and this is a big, big BUT… Canelo has not had many fights against actual middleweights at 160 lbs. Canelo’s made his riches at junior middleweight (154 lbs.), and eventually became such an attraction that he could fight at negotiated catchweights; this became derisively known as “Caneloweight.” Look at his resume, which I looked upon very kindly here. The top names – Floyd Mayweather Jr., Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Shane Mosley – are all welterweights or 154-lbers. His only fight against a bigger fighter than him was Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who was so comically overmatched in terms of skill it eventually looked like Canelo was going to town on a tan heavy bag. Despite destroying Chavez Jr. and hitting him with any shot he pleased, he was unable to get a KO or stoppage.
Even more important than whether Canelo can really rock fighters this big, is whether he can take their shots. Golovkin is on another planet from JCC Jr. in terms of skill, and Alvarez is just not used to being hit by true middleweights. And make no mistake, Golovkin is an all-time great middleweight. The early rounds will be extremely dangerous for Alvarez as he weathers the early tastes of the Kazakh Thunder.
Judging Shenanigans
I’d be failing you if you aren’t a student of the game like I am, and you think these big fights are always contested on fair terms. They’re not. Golovkin is awesome, but he is not the cash cow that Canelo is. Not only is Golovkin the favorite, his reputation for power can work against him. Any fighter who can withstand his onslaught is given extra credit, even if they’re still losing the fight. If you have time, check out Golovkin’s last fight vs. Danny Jacobs. It’s right below this sentence!
Jacobs was excellent, and he is a very solid middleweight. He did not win this fight. He got in good shots, and boxed well in a pretty clear loss. But the fact that he survived the full 12 rounds vs. GGG was so unthinkable that it tricked many fans into thinking he deserved a win. Credit, yes. Not a W. Canelo is a tough son of a bitch, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s standing at the final bell. If that happens, it is HIGHLY possible the judges steal a rightful victory from Golovkin and hand it to the moneymaker.
Prediction
I’m going with my brain over my skeptical gut. I’m predicting an 11th-round TKO for Golovkin. I believe GGG’s consistent body work will considerably slow Alvarez’s output, and his persistent pressure will wear on Canelo mentally. By the championship rounds, Alvarez won’t be punching with any authority, and he’ll be getting hit with very clean shots. He won’t quit – he’s too tough – but the referee will do the right thing and call it. My gut is telling me Canelo survives the 12 and earns a shaky AF split decision, but I trust my brain.
Go with Golovkin to take out Canelo, who is a very good boy.