2024 Team Previews: Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Isiah Pacheco, RB (ADP: 23, RB11): Pacheco is ascendent in this offense and will likely be the most valuable fantasy option. Pacheco was PFF’s No. 11 RB, and he earned it by excelling in all facets of the position. The NFL adjusted to Mahomes’ dominance by forcing the Chiefs to pivot off the deep bombs that we know and love Mahomes for. He did so, and the Chiefs also leaned into making Pacheco a focal point; he responded with 1,179 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns. He logged more than 200 carries in Year 2, fully becoming a modern-day workhorse RB, and he figures to see increased usage as a receiver with Jerick McKinnon no longer on the roster.
It's hard to find any holes in Pacheco’s game, and his role as a three-down back is among the most secure in the league. We could see a TD resurgence from Mahomes, which could impact Pacheco’s TD opportunity, but besides that he’s going to be a very stable RB option and a strong pick at this ADP.
Travis Kelce, TE (ADP: 27, TE2): Kelce had a down year in 2023, which is a positive for fantasy managers this year because his ADP has dropped to a much more manageable place. He is still the TE2 off the board, but after being a first round pick in many leagues entering last season, the fantasy community has finally acknowledged that his age has to be accounted for.
Yes, he’s still the top receiving target for the best QB in football, and his 93 receptions and 984 yards are elite numbers for a TE. It was Kelce’s first time falling below 1,000 yards, however, since 2015, and his five touchdowns were his fewest since 2019. The TD numbers were especially problematic, not just because you can’t get five TDs from a first round pick most seasons and survive, but because three of them came before Week 6. After Week 7, Kelce was essentially a pricy version of Evan Engram, averaging five catches, and 51 yards per game while scoring just one in a nine-game stretch. Kelce’s yards per reception were way down, as were his yards per game, average depth of target and yards after the catch. All of this is normal for a player turning 35 this season, but it’s not normal for a player that’s being drafted on the border of Round 2 and Round 3.
While this ADP is much more palatable than it was a year ago, and Kelce figures to be a pillar of stability at a position where goose eggs are always a threat even for high-end options, the investment strikes me as far too rich when he’s at an age that almost no TEs have ever performed at a level justifying this high a pick. Kansas City beefed up the receiving corps this offseason partly to ensure their star QB has ingredients to cook, but also because Kelce is no longer a guaranteed top option. All good things come to an end, and we’re closer to Kelce’s endgame than this ADP reflects. I am out at on him at this price.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (ADP: 33, QB3): Mahomes had one of the worst fantasy seasons of his career in 2023, throwing the second-fewest TDs of his career since becoming a starter (27), his second-fewest yards (4,183) and the most interceptions (14). None of those numbers reflect any kind of drop off in his play though. He was PFF’s No. 2 QB behind only Josh Allen, produced a 76.8% adjusted accuracy score and was accurate to just about every area of the field. We saw an evolved version of Mahomes that was more lethally accurate and actually took fewer risks despite a turnover total that was inflated by having some of the worst WRs in the league.
I’m not exaggerating when I say Mahomes’ receiving corps – Rashee Rice excluded – was dreadful. Aside from Kelce and Rice, the most targeted receivers were Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. Watson was PFF’s No. 80 receiver, MVS was No. 119, and Moore was No. 108. Toney didn’t have enough snaps to earn a ranking, but his grade was right in line with these fellas, and he contributed directly to at least one of Mahomes’ interceptions. This group was so trash they actually felt the absence of Juju Smith-Schuster, and Mahomes still had a relatively decent statistical campaign and won a Super Bowl. With Hollywood Brown on the team now, they’ve added a quality veteran who will be catching the best passes he’s ever seen in his life, and I expect Mahomes’ yardage to go back up, and his TDs to return to the mid 30s. If that happens, this ADP would still be high for my liking, but much more justified.
**Marquise Brown, WR (ADP: 81, WR36): Brown is the shiny new toy in the receiver room, and could potentially end our annually fruitless search for consistent value from the Chiefs WRs. Brown’s got a lot of talent and upside, but we have rarely seen it fully realized for a number of reasons. In Baltimore, it was mostly due to their run-heavy game plan and limitations of Lamar Jackson as a QB, and in Arizona injuries marred some of his tenure, as did injury to Kyler Murray. With the Chiefs, he’ll have to scrap for targets, but if he’s used mostly in the slot he’s going to do damage.
As noted here, when I pegged Brown as a veteran value, I noted that the slot receiver has led the WR room in targets in the two seasons since Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami. Brown, should he be in that role, is the best option they’ve had. In 2022, Smith-Schuster was there and provided a safety blanket for Mahomes, while Rice was kind of a beast, but still a pretty raw and limited player from a routes perspective. Brown is a fully realized player, with insane speed and he could take the top off a defense at any time even if they’re game planning to stop that. We have seen him top 1,000 yards before when healthy, and he has shown a nose for the end zone despite his size, never scoring fewer than six touchdowns in his first three seasons with the Ravens. Brown will enter the season as Kansas City’s most complete receiver, and I expect him to lead the WR room in targets.
Reception Perception noted Brown’s weaknesses, but also acknowledged that the Cardinals failed to scheme him into YAC situations that could’ve better utilized his speed without exposing his size. I trust an Andy Reid-led offense to make the most of a potent, but untraditional weapon.
Rashee Rice, WR (ADP: 84, WR37): Rice was supposed to be this season’s breakout from the Chiefs, but his wild offseason has thrown everything into question. We don’t know if he will be suspended or for how long for his multiple off field transgressions, and now Brown has been brought in and is best suited for the slot where Rice thrived last year. Do the Chiefs deploy him on the outside because he’s younger and they want to develop his all around skills? If so, expect him to stagnate a bit or regress, because while he produced at a high level, he was a bit of a one-trick pony.
Rice was a pure zone-beater, ranking in the 60th percentile vs. zones while landing in just the 29th percentile vs. man. Rice was good against press, but 38.3% of his routes were slants. That’s fine, and he was good at them – as well as chewing up yards after the catch – but that’s not a recipe for blossoming into a full-blown star receiver. He also was not adept at getting open down the field, so Rice is more reliant than Brown on volume, which will decrease with Brown in the mix getting open where other Chiefs WRs last season weren’t.
If Rice avoids suspension, this ADP will turn into a value because he’ll still be productive with a machine like Mahomes at QB. But if news comes out ahead of your draft that he won’t be suspended, this ADP is going to shoot up quickly to a point that’s too rich. I believe Brown is the WR to get from this group, and he’s going to remain a value.
Xavier Worthy, WR (ADP: 94, WR40): Worthy’s record setting 40 time at the Combine was impressive as hell, but it’s boosted his ADP to a point I’m struggling to understand. He’s a very slight receiver, so playing him as an X consistently is out of the question. He beat zone at an 80.7% clip at Texas last season, which is good for a player built like a slot man, but he’s on a roster with Brown and Rice ahead of him and they’re all best-equipped for slot work.
Worthy posted below-average success rates on digs, corners and comebacks, and he was good but not spectacular on slants, and he was beaten often by press coverage. Worthy also struggled against top competition in contested catch scenarios which is no surprise as a very small receiver. He’s shaping up like a player who, in Year 1, is more of a gadget player whom the Chiefs can design touches for and get in space. While he’ll undoubtedly flash in that role, the touches will be few and far between, and we’re looking at early Mecole Hardman stuff, which was hardly fantasy relevant. Drafting that guy inside the Top 100 can’t happen. I hate this ADP, and wouldn’t go near him without a significant drop.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Noah Gray, TE (ADP: N/A): Obviously, Gray isn’t someone you can draft, but he has shown some receiving chops in limited action the past two seasons and could be a contributor if Kelce went down. It can’t be ruled out at Kelce’s age, and if that happened, Gray could be worth a few FAAB dollars.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (ADP: 219, RB64): It’s very clear that Edwards-Helaire was a huge first round miss, but he does enough to stick around on this team. There’s something they like about him, and with McKinnon out of the picture, it certainly looks like CEH is the handcuff to Pacheco. Is he even an RB2 with a Pacheco injury? It’s unclear, but if he wound up in a scenario where he was getting the majority of RB opportunities, he’d belong on a roster.
Kadarius Toney, WR (ADP: N/A): Toney had a cancerous impact on this team last season, but his physical tools are undeniable. There have been training camp reports of creative usages for him, which makes sense since it doesn’t appear that he has the chops to succeed as a traditional receiver. I don’t think that makes him a fantasy option, especially when Xavier Worthy is likely here to do the same stuff, but talent always warrants a mention.
Mecole Hardman, WR (ADP: N/A): See Toney, Kadarius. Hardman is a speed merchant whom I stuck with for way too long as a potential value. The Chiefs let him leave and brought him back, so, like with Toney, there’s something they like. I bet it’s his world class speed. But he’s never evolved as a receiver, so it’s impossible to recommend playing him because his entire value is predicated on taking scarce designed touches to the house.
Skyy Moore, WR (ADP: N/A): Moore had sleeper buzz after a rookie season in which his production sucked, but there were some signals that his deployment meant a steep learning curve, but that the Chiefs were believers in his upside. And then he put up the same numbers as his rookie season. And then the Chiefs signed Brown and drafted Worthy. Now Moore’s completely off the radar, as he should be. For what it’s worth, I’d rather take a stab at Moore over Toney or Hardman, but none of these guys are going to be close to weekly options.