2024 Team Previews: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

George Pickens, WR (ADP: 59, WR28): Pickens had a breakout in Year 2 for the Steelers despite some of the worst QB play in the NFL, putting up 1,140 yards on just 63 receptions, and averaging 18.1 yards per catch, most in the league among WRs with at least 40 targets. With Diontae Johnson gone, Pickens is now the solidified WR1 for this team, and with that come expectations baked into this ADP.  Logically, more targets plus a QB upgrade – we think? – from Kenny Pickett to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields means more growth from Pickens. But while his spectacular talent makes him a tantalizing pick, we do have to be careful.

Physically, he’s special. He’s as pure an X receiver as they come, and he ran an absurd amount of nine routes – 23% to be exact – but succeeded on nearly 60% of them. He was lethal down the field because he could beat press (71st percentile) and he’s also a contested catch monster. Everything about him screams efficient production, and he’s fun as hell to watch. But..not to be a wet blanket, but he can’t be moved around like a chess piece the way Johnson could as this team’s top option. His route success tree isn’t the most well-rounded, with red splotching on posts and digs. Pickens was in the 17th percentile last year vs. zone as well and with an average depth of target (ADOT) like 13.5, his bread is buttered on lower percentage targets. This translates to huge spike games, like the five he had in 2023 where he popped for 100+ yards, three of which included at least one touchdown.  It also means he had five games with 20 or fewer yards, and even a tilt in which he finished with negative yardage.

Because of the kind of player Pickens is, even with Johnson gone I don’t expect his target share to jump much because I don’t envision him running more layup routes in lieu of what he’s great at. Therefore, this ADP strikes me as a bit high, and not a great value. Pickens could make me look real foolish this time next year, but I’d prefer to draft more consistency inside the Top 50.

Najee Harris, RB (ADP: 69, RB23): Harris takes a lot of crap because he’s not that fast in comparison to other lead backs, but all he does is produce. Harris has broken 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons, put up 1,200+ yards from scrimmage, and scored at least eight touchdowns. He has also broken the 250-carry mark in all three of his pro campaigns. His reception numbers as a rookie certainly gassed up expectations, so while those receiving numbers have normalized, we’re left with a very consistent RB2. This ADP seems fair, and while it’s not an obvious value, we have seen a higher receiving ceiling from Harris than he’s put forth the past two years. If he comes closer to the rookie year receiving workload, then Harris becomes a difference maker.

Jaylen Warren, RB (ADP: 84, RB29): Now, after saying all that nice stuff about Harris, I do prefer Warren on my teams. The likeliest outcome is Harris finishes the season higher and with gaudier numbers than Warren because he’s built better for goal line work. BUT!!!!!, I do think Warren is a better overall player. He graded better per PFF, coming in 13th last season to Harris’ 21st with a significantly higher receiving grade (72.2 v. 58.8). Warren upped his yards per carry to 5.3 last season with an increased workload, and caught the fifth-most passes among RBs in 2023. Both RBs are going to get a workout in 2024 because the receiving corps is ugly and/or raw behind Pickens. Since both should be able to have enough work to support an RB2 finish, I’d prefer to take the one with more juice and a higher ceiling, especially since he is a little later in the draft.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Pat Freiermuth, TE (ADP: 128, TE16): Freiermuth was a flat out bust last season, dealing with injuries and putting up just 308 yards and two touchdowns. Freiermuth is a nice player, and his TD upside is pretty high as we saw when he scored seven times as a rookie. The lack of established receiver depth behind Pickens does leave the door open for a new career-high for him in targets, but Freiermuth isn’t an explosive player by any means. So that means the ceiling is fairly low, he’s pretty TD-dependent in an offense that may be quite low-scoring, and he’ll need volume because the chunk plays aren’t his thing. All that risk is baked into this low ADP, but I don’t see the recipe for season-long value, so I’d throw my dart elsewhere.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Justin Fields, QB (ADP: 210, QB32): The ship has sailed on Fields ever being a “good” passer in the NFL. It just ain’t in him. But he’s a world class rusher, on the level of Lamar Jackson, and if he can get into the starting role he’s worth a weekly start simply because he’s a 1,000-yard rusher who also throws the ball. While he won’t be accurate or amass gaudy passing numbers, Fields can wing it and make magic with Pickens. Just ask D.J. Moore! Watching Fields play QB isn’t always pretty, but his fantasy production sure is more often than not.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Russell Wilson, QB (ADP: 191, QB28): Wilson is no longer a weekly start, which we all know, but this ADP is a bit rough. When you’re this far down the QB list it doesn’t really matter, but for posterity QB28 seems crazy. He wasn’t helpful last year, and Sean Payton really seemed to hate him, but he did finish with 26 touchdowns and just eight INTs in 2023 while throwing to Courtland Sutton and…not much else. Wilson threw one less TD than Patrick Mahomes last year, and two fewer than Josh Allen! I’m not saying you should wait on QB and then rely on Wilson all year, but he’s a definite spot start based on matchups if you don’t go big on QB, and he’s not the fourth-worst QB you can draft.

Roman Wilson, WR (ADP: 215, WR75): Wilson has never caught 50 passes in a collegiate season, which isn’t great, but it’s also a product of Michigan’s extreme run-heavy offense. Wilson did do immense damage efficiency-wise, averaging 16 yards per catch in his career and scoring a touchdown for every four grabs. Based on the names on the Steelers’ depth chart, Wilson looks like he is the WR2 for this team, making him a worthwhile gamble this late in the draft, but his college success rates are pretty gross. He ranked below the 20th percentile vs. man, zone and press last year and was average to below average on his three most-run routes, the nine, post and slant. I will be looking to other options to round out my receiving corps.

Calvin Austin III, WR (ADP: 313, WR99): Austin is a tiny little speedster who struggled to find playing time in 2023, but has a wide open path now with Diontae Johnson gone, and unproven options all competing for work. His size is limiting, and it’ll be uphill for him with Pickens bolted into the X role, and Roman Wilson likely handling slot duties. According to his Reception Perception profile, he actually was very good vs. both man and zone entering the league, so if the coaches decide he can stick as a flanker, maybe he’s on the field more in 2024 and can be a surprise. I think I’d actually gamble on him before Wilson due to the success rates, but neither figures to be fantasy relevant.

Van Jefferson, WR (ADP: N/A): Jefferson might actually be on the field early in the year because of the youth of Wilson and Austin, but I don’t care. We know what Jefferson is, a guy who is fast and will make a splash play every so often. Fantasy wise, I just don’t see him contributing.