2024 Team Previews: New England Patriots

New England Patriots 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (ADP: 61, RB18): The Patriots’ fantasy outlook is bleak from the standpoint of big time contributors, with Stevenson likely to be the only player on this roster we can comfortably expect to be an every-week contributor. Stevenson’s 2023 was a downer for many managers who drafted him at No. 25 overall at the time the Pats preview was written. He was limited to 12 games for the second time in three seasons, failed to crack 900 yards from scrimmage and put up career-worsts in yards per carry (4.0) and touchdowns (4). Stevenson is a very talented player who should see an increase in TD opportunity with Ezekiel Elliott back in Dallas, and replaced with Antonio Gibson, who may threaten Stevenson in other, less damaging ways.

The Patriots’ offensive line stunk last year, and likely will again, and it’s unclear if there will be an upgrade in QB play from last season as Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye duke it out to be the starter. Brissett is likely the steadier hand and better option for Stevenson, but neither is a needle-mover. All in all, this continues to be a pretty dire offensive environment, and one that caps Stevenson’s ceiling. But he will be among the league-leaders at the position in opportunities, and I’d expect him to be used heavily near the goal line. I’d be surprised if he’s not a strong RB2 this year, making him a value at No. 64.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Antonio Gibson, RB (ADP: 148, RB48): It’s time to let go of the dream of Gibson being a big time RB after back-to-back years of toiling away in Washington and failing to get to 900 yards from scrimmage. Gibson’s fast as hell, and he’s proven that he can be a difference maker as a rusher and receiver in this league, but it seems like he makes too many mental lapses to be trusted by his coaches. That kills his snap counts, and forces him to be an efficiency king, which he hasn’t been since his rookie season. Should Stevenson get hurt, Gibson does have RB2 upside here as the clear-cut handcuff, but beyond that there are plenty of other late RBs I’d prefer to take a chance on.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

**Javon Baker, WR (ADP: 228, WR89): Baker made my list of rookie Honorable Mentions for 2024 despite being in an exceedingly crowded WR room with absolutely zero clarity on who may emerge. I’m optimistic about Baker because while the room is packed with viable options, few of them provide Baker’s particular set of skills. He is a classic, big outside receiver who can make big plays down the field and get this offense down the field in chunks. As a senior at UCF, Baker caught 52 passes for 1,139 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 21.9 yards per catch. Now, this prototype can be frustrating for fantasy, because the huge ADOT (average depth of target) guys can swing weeks when they hit, or be doughnut risks. Baker’s no different, but at WR89 he’s going to cost nothing. Even if he becomes a desperation plug in for you, at this ADP that’s a win.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Hunter Henry, TE (ADP: 163, TE19): We’re entering Year 9 of Hunter Henry, and there’s nothing more to learn. He’s going to catch 40-50 passes, and put up 500-600ish yards. If you get a big TD season like in 2021, when he scored nine times, congrats on the value. More likely, he’s going to finish with five or fewer, and he’ll be a streaming option dictated by matchup.

DeMario Douglas, WR (ADP: 167, WR70): Douglas was the Patriots’ best receiver in 2023, but that isn’t saying much. He caught 49 passes for 561 yards, but failed to reach the end zone in his rookie season. In fairness to Douglas, he wasn’t on the field much until Week 7, and from then on he averaged 6.9 targets. 46.4 yards and 4.3 receptions per game, none of which are special, but also aren’t bad for a 6th-round rookie in the NFL’s least potent passing attack. He’s super small, so unlike rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, Douglas is pigeonholed in the slot. The issue is that he actually wasn’t very good vs. zone, which is usually a must for slot guys. He fared much better vs. man than zone (53rd percentile vs. 26th), and was best on slants, flats and outs. All in all, he’s a nice little player and may be helpful in full-PPR formats as depth, but he has nowhere near the ceiling of Polk.

**Ja’Lynn Polk, WR (ADP: 170, WR71): Polk has buzz this offseason that he might emerge as the WR1 for New England, and it’s entirely possible. He was a monster as a senior at Washington, putting up more than 1,100 receiving yards to go with 10 TDs in one of the nation’s best offenses. His Reception Perception breakdown shows that he was reasonably strong vs. man and press, but really hurt zone defenses. His 83.5% success rate vs. zone placed him in the 81st percentile, and because he moved all over the place at Washington, he’s unlikely to be restricted to just the slot. He has a lot of veterans to climb over in that locker room, but none of them really loom as too large a threat. I’d expect Polk to be a key cog in this offense sooner rather than later, but the problem is how much fantasy production can this offense support? Even if he’s the WR1, I’m not sure that makes him a weekly starter.  

Drake Maye, QB (ADP: 198, QB31): Maye wound up going No. 2 overall where he was projected to be at the beginning of the year, but man did that get shaky. It’s unclear if he will play at all this season, or just gain experience visually while Brissett takes the lumps during what will undoubtedly be a struggle bus season. Maye’s physical tools are off the charts, and as a sophomore he peaked at North Carolina with 4,321 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, and 698 rushing yards with seven scores on the ground. 2023 was much more harrowing for him, as his TD passes dropped to 24, his INTs rose from seven to nine, and saw his passing yardage shaved by 713. He is only rosterable in dynasty leagues and Super FLEX formats, and even if he does play, I’d expect very little from a raw player with substandard surrounding talent and a shoddy offensive line.

Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP: 234, WR91): Bourne is impressive to watch at times, and he looks the part of a legit WR1, but he’s been in the league since 2017 and he’s never had more than 55 receptions, 800 yards or five touchdowns. He is nothing more than quality NFL depth, and I’m done falling for the spike weeks.

Jacoby Brissett, QB (ADP: 241, QB36): Brissett is a sneaky late pick in two-QB or Super FLEX leagues because he’s probably the starter this season, and he’s pretty damn good at QB sneaks. Other than that, he’s safe to ignore.

K.J. Osborn, WR (ADP: 266, WR98): Osborn, like Bourne, has been around the block a few times, and made some splashes, but never put it together. I don’t see it happening now, and I’d much rather take a shot on the rookies than pretend we don’t know who this player is in Year 5.

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP: N/A): Smith-Schuster’s stock has plummeted to the core of the Earth, as he doesn’t even currently have an ADP. Ironically, I’d draft him ahead of Bourne or Osborn, because unlike them, Juju has shown he can be really good at at least one thing. As recently as 2022, Juju was a fantasy relevant slot receiver for the Chiefs, and their most-targeted WR that season. It’s probably not going to happen for him here in that role because Douglas is younger and fresher than him, but if Juju, who is apparently healthy after battling knee woes all year, does get the role he could wind up relevant.