2024 Team Previews: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Josh Allen, QB (ADP: 22, QB1): Allen is the clear-cut QB1 entering 2024 and he is being drafted as such, with an ADP of late 2nd round in 12-team formats. Waiting on QB isn’t as much of a surefire strategy as it used to be, with the proliferation of running QBs creating a consistency gap – and therefore a strategic advantage – when you commit to one a bit early. And yes, No. 22 overall is very early to take your QB. But last year, it was Patrick Mahomes going around this ADP and that was riskier than it is to roll with Allen this season.
Allen’s rushing baseline is as safe as they come, and while he’s not exactly the caliber of runner as, say, Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson, he makes up for the lesser yardage with guaranteed TD opportunity. Allen is the preferred short-yardage guy for this Bills offense, and he’s rushed for at least six TDs in each of his six NFL seasons. He set a career-high last year with 15 rushing touchdowns, easily offsetting a dip in passing yards per game to 253.3, which was still eighth in the NFL among QBs who started more than five games.
Allen is elite in every facet of the game. He’s a dominant rusher, he has thrown for 4,200+ yards in four consecutive seasons, and has proven incredibly durable despite a physical play style. I think you can find more value than this at QB, but you cannot find more safety. A later-round QB could pop and be a value, but Allen is a locked-in Top 3 player at the highest-scoring position, and he doesn’t have many off days.
James Cook, RB (ADP: 47, RB14): Cook’s 2023 season was a bumpy ride at times, but in the end he justified the community’s excitement about his potential. He finished with 1,122 yards and six total touchdowns while logging 237 carries, which is plenty in the modern NFL. Some will push the narrative that Cook is ready to become a Round 1 or 2 RB because this offense is going to shift with Stefon Diggs gone. I’d pump the brakes. Believe it or not, Buffalo ran the ball the fifth-most times in the league in 2023, and Cook saw pretty heavy usage all year long. He also caught 44 of his 54 targets, for 445 yards and four receiving scores. Cook performed as a very nice RB2, but while some may expect him to build on that, I think this is what he is, making this a fine ADP, but one where you’re drafting him close to his ceiling.
Cook is on the smaller side, and while I don’t doubt his capability of punching in short-yardage TDs, he’s just an inferior option to Allen. The Bills know this, and that’s why he scored twice on the ground while Allen scored 15 times. Why fix something that’s not broken? Also, while he’s obviously a playmaker in the passing game, he’s an abysmal pass blocker per PFF, and that’s why Re’Mahn Davis was drafted. I do not believe we’ll see an uptick in his receiving production, nor do I expect him to become a full on three-down back. So yes, he’s a very good player in an offense that’ll score. Yes, he’s a very good RB2, and maybe even a low-end RB1 for teams that are constructed with insane receivers. But this is the right spot for him, not a screaming value.
Dalton Kincaid, TE (ADP: 51, TE5): Sam LaPorta was the star rookie TE of 2023, but Kincaid quietly sizzled when he had the opportunity. I have identified him as my favorite TE candidate to leap into the elite category here, but we can summarize. When Dawson Knox was out, Buffalo changed their approach, and Kincaid became a much more featured option. From Weeks 8-12, Kincaid averaged 6.2 receptions per game and 56.2 yards, numbers in line with Evan Engram and David Njoku. Buffalo has vacated 241 targets after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and while they’ve replaced those receivers with interesting talents, Kincaid stands to benefit with an increased share of Josh Allen’s golden opportunities. Now, an ADP of No. 51 overall is a tad rich for a player who, for all his talent, hasn’t been a top TE over a full season before. You are taking a risk that he builds upon his rookie season significantly, because there are more proven TEs like Engram going later with safer floors and lower ceilings. Pulling the trigger on Kincaid here is a bit bold, but he can be a separator. The safer options that are going later, for the most part, are not going to be difference makers.
Keon Coleman, WR (ADP: 101, WR46): Coleman is the first Bills WR off the board, and that’s a bit surprising because he’s just the WR46 and he’s catching passes from arguably the best QB in the NFL. That’s what happens when you lose Stefon Diggs though. It’s unclear what the target distribution will be for the Bills without Diggs, because Diggs was a jack-of-all-trades who was elite in every component of being a receiver. They now have to piece that brilliance together collectively, and Coleman is an awkward fit. He has the size of a hulking X receiver, and looks tailor-made to replace Gabe Davis on the outside. That tracks with his usage at Florida State, where, per Reception Perception, he was on the outside 77% of the time. The problem is that aside from eye-popping highlights, he wasn’t great. He was in the 20th percentile of receivers vs. man coverage (62.7% success rate), and he actually was regularly defeated by press coverage (55.2% success, 19th percentile) despite his size. His route tree success rates were gross, failing to crack 80% on any routes aside from flats and screens, which made up only 11% of his routes run. Davis’ most run routes were curls and nines; on those routes Coleman turned in 76.5% and 37.8% success rates, respectively.
Coleman was better vs. zone, so there’s a path to him succeeding as a big slot, but then that gets in the way of new addition Curtis Samuel’s best use. Ultimately, the narrative is that Coleman is going to lead the team in targets, and be the primary option in the WR corps. I’m not convinced. I see bust potential here, and at best, an inefficient rookie campaign with highlight reel flashes. This ADP isn’t prohibitive, so taking a stab won’t sink your battleship, but I prefer other options in this range, and even in this same WR room.
**Curtis Samuel, WR (ADP: 114, WR50): Like Kincaid, I also wrote about Samuel’s chances of becoming an elite fantasy option. It’s a longer shot for Samuel, as we usually know who a guy is after nine seasons in the NFL, but this is Samuel’s first go of it as a primary option and with a top tier QB. Unlike Coleman, Samuel has proven he can succeed at a very high rate vs. man coverage (75.4%, 82nd percentile), while also clearing 80% against zone coverage. He ran far fewer nine routes in Washington than anyone he’s replacing, but he was at 60% success on the ones he did attempt, and he was killing DBs on curls (83.3%). Samuel also obliterated defenses with prejudice in the flat (88.2% success), which made up 6.6% of his routes, and could serve Josh Allen well to give him easier passes that establish a rhythm. The success rates at every level of the field that he delivered make him a much more sensible option to fill in Diggs’ role in this offense. Nobody can replace Diggs, as he is one of the premier receivers in the entire game, but I’d bet on Samuel to end the year with more targets than Coleman, and to do more with those chances. While he’s going 13 picks after Coleman, to me, he’s a far more exciting pick.
Fantasy Relevant (121-150 ADP)
Khalil Shakir, WR (ADP: 121, WR53): Shakir is another player who will be a safer option than Coleman, even though his ceiling is likely also lower. He has flashed serious playmaking chops in his first two seasons, but he’s best suited to the slot, where he’s been buried behind Cole Beasley and, often, Diggs. With Diggs gone this pass-catching crew lacks an alpha, and while I don’t see Shakir sliding into that type of role, he could be a consistent safety blanket out of the slot for Allen who has the ability to make house calls. Shakir is a very interesting later-round flier in half and full-PPR formats, because I don’t see him scoring a ton of touchdowns, but his talent warrants watching since he’s bound to see the field more in 2024 than he has in his career.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Re’Mahn Davis, RB (ADP: 166, RB53): “Ray” Davis made my rookie ranking Honorable Mentions despite being well behind James Cook in the pecking order in Buffalo because he looks like a clear-cut beneficiary if Cook goes down, and because he can assume a three-down role if needed. Davis caught 33 passes and scored seven receiving touchdowns as a Kentucky senior, and has eclipsed 190 carries thrice in his college career. Davis should also see the field on passing downs for Buffalo, due to Cook’s previously mentioned pass-blocking woes. Maybe it takes a bit of time for Davis to earn that trust from the Bills coaches, but he did spend five years in college so he’s more mature than the average rookie RB. I like the talent, and for this super late ADP, the upside for a role change is massive.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Chase Claypool, WR (ADP: 294, WR115): Claypool is living proof that physical talent rules the NFL world. Much better receivers than him have toiled in anonymity before being discarded to the scrap heap without ever getting a real chance, but because he is 6’4, 230+ lbs. with high draft pedigree, he gets an endless supply of second chances. Claypool did score nine touchdowns as a rookie in Pittsburgh, and he, in theory, does a lot of what Gabe Davis did. But he’s been a knucklehead since that rookie year, and there’s been no fantasy production to note. I’m ignoring him.
Ty Johnson, RB (ADP: 319, RB85): Johnson’s a guy. It’s possible that the Bills trust his institutional knowledge more than they do Ray Davis, making him the actual No. 2 here and therefore potentially startable as a desperation play if Cook was hurt. None of that makes him draftable, or even particularly appealing even if he became a starter in the short term.
KJ Hamler, WR (ADP: N/A): Hamler has not caught double-digit passes since his rookie year in 2020, due to various injuries, and he didn’t even suit up in 2023. But he’s super fast, and Josh Allen has the cannon to get him the ball downfield. If the Bills decided to make that part of their offense, there is a non-zero chance he has value. But probably not.