Veteran Values: J.K. Dobbins A Completely Forgotten Man With A Lot of Potential Value
The signing of Gus Edwards early in the offseason by the Los Angeles Chargers, as well as the decisions to let Mike Williams leave in free agency and trade Keenan Allen, have left the impression that new coach Jim Harbaugh is here to install a three yards and a cloud of dust offense. Edwards, a big bruising runner, looks the part of that grinder RB and he could be a fantasy value at his No. 126 overall ADP (RB41). But J.K. Dobbins also quietly signed with the Chargers, and I believe he’s a far more interesting play at an even better price.
Dobbins has had some catastrophic injuries in his short career, including a blown out knee, and, most recently, a torn Achilles. But he claims he’s healthy, and he’ll have a chance to show that in training camp and the preseason. I’m no doctor over here, I can only go by what I’ve seen in the past from a player. And what we’ve seen from Dobbins, when he plays, is a phenomenal RB. Sure, he’s only managed to play in 24 games since 2020, but in those games he has averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and he scored nine touchdowns as a rookie in 15 games. He also caught 18 of 24 targets as a rookie for 120 yards. He’s also always shared a backfield with Gus Edwards, and while both have been quality rushers, Dobbins is a cut above.
From 2020-2023, Edwards has logged 35 attempts from the five-yard line or closer, racking up 43 yards, 17 touchdowns and 19 first downs. In that same span, Dobbins has only logged 14 attempts, but still gained 33 yards, scored 11 touchdowns and picked up 11 first downs.
In Dobbins’ rookie season, this duo had almost equal workshare, and this is how it played out.
2020 Att Y/A Opportunities (Attempts + Targets) YScm TD
Edwards 144 5 157 852 6
Dobbins 134 6 158 925 9
Again, Edwards is good! But Dobbins has always gained bigger chunks of yardage and offered more explosiveness while also being just as good – if not better – in short yardage.
With both coming off major injuries in 2021, their return timetables weren’t the same for the 2022 season. The pair only played together in Weeks 14-17, and the work and production split was stark.
Att/G Opp/G YScm TD
Edwards 8.5 8.5 222 0
Dobbins 14.3 14.75 400 1
Now, things may be different with Dobbins trying to come back from a torn Achilles, and his explosiveness may be sapped. We won’t know until we see him on the field. But we have years of evidence of these two backs sharing a RB room on one of football’s most run-heavy teams, and Dobbins has always been the superior choice. This Chargers offense will be fascinating, because Harbaugh has a well-earned reputation for establishing the run. In his four seasons helming the 49ers (2011-2014), they were in the Top 10 of rushing attempts every season, and were in the Top 3 twice. In the red zone, Harbaugh’s teams ran the ball 357 times, vs. 254 pass attempts. On the other hand, his QBs were Alex Smith and Colin Kapernick. He’s never had a QB like Justin Herbert, who may have been built in a laboratory that creates perfect QBs. Even with an elite QB, Los Angeles’ pass catching corps leaves much to be desired, so a lot of running is to be expected, even if they don’t wind up Top 3 in rushing attempts.
The price on both players is awesome at the moment, and even though we cannot pinpoint with any certainty where the rushing production will come from, there seems to be a lot of fantasy production to be mined from this running game. Dobbins’ ADP is No. 164 at the time of this writing, 38 spots behind Edwards and making him the RB52. He’s actually the third Chargers RB off the board, as rookie Kimani Vidal is going 12 spots ahead of him. The skepticism is surely warranted after such serious injuries, but we’ve also never seen Dobbins play and not be dominant. If I’m throwing a late dart on the Chargers backfield, I’m definitely going to shoot for the high ceiling of J.K. Dobbins.