Low Risk High Reward: Taysom Hill Is The Cheapest Season Long TE On The Market

Taysom Hill has been a player who, for years, has both tantalized fantasy managers with his unique potential and also frustrated them because of his knack for big plays and red zone prowess despite so few managers actually using him and benefitting from those occurrences. Hill’s been listed as a TE for a few seasons now, and his ceiling in any given week is very high. It’s time for an actual dive into how good Hill actually is, and whether he makes sense as a value as your season-long TE.

This might be surprising, but Hill graded out as PFF’s No. 8 overall TE (75.3), largely on the strength of an 86.1 rushing grade. Hill is a vaunted Swiss Army knife-type player, but his biggest contribution to this offense is his big play ability and short-yardage power on the ground. Typically, TEs are drafted based on their talent, volume and role within a team’s passing game, but Hill only drew 40 targets in 2023 (2.5 per game), putting up 291 yards and two scores. As a rusher, he logged 81 attempts, totaling 401 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 25.1 yards on the ground per game and five yards per carry. That rushing volume and production isn’t anything special for a RB, but it makes for an intriguing option at TE. At first glance, that usage doesn’t jump off the page, but if you remove the traditional lenses, you’ll see value in those numbers.

Consider every carry and target as an “opportunity.” Hill had 121 opportunities in 2023, which is the same as the No. 1 TE in fantasy last year, Sam LaPorta. It’s just that LaPorta drew 120 targets and only rushed once, and they were spread out far more consistently throughout the year. Hill is knocked for having a very low floor to pair with his high ceiling on a weekly basis, but it isn’t like the Saints leaned on him for three games where he popped and he provided 14 duds. Hill logged 5+ attempts seven times in 2023, putting up 50+ rushing yards in five of them, and all four of his rushing touchdowns came in these games. He also had six games with 10+ opportunities. Remember, we’re talking about TEs here, so this is pretty valuable work for the price you get Hill at.

Of course, much will change between now and the time you draft, but his current ranking per Fantasy Pros is No. 19 at the position, with an ADP of No. 167. That means end of the draft flier, and largely undrafted in most leagues. But if you compare him to some TEs that will be drafted universally – George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet – there are many metrics where Hill is right on par or surpasses them and is overlooked simply due to how he arrives at his production.

For example, we mentioned that Hill had six games with 10+ opportunities. Kittle and Pitts had two such games, and they tied for second among this group. Hill had eight games with 50+ yards from scrimmage, and of that group, only Kittle had more with 10. Among this entire group, Hill tied Kittle and Kmet for the most touchdowns (6). And for all the talk about high variance with Hill, none of this group had more than one 20+-point game, and Hill had as many 15+-point games as Goedert and Kmet, and one more than Kincaid. Pitts, who has an ADP right now of No. 60, more than 100 points ahead of Hill, had one 15+-point game in 2023.

Of course, there are warts. Hill is on the field less than these higher-drafted options, which contributes to his depressed ADP. While he does have big ceiling weeks like the others, he does bust at slightly higher rate than they do; Hill had seven games last year with five or fewer fantasy points, tying Kincaid for the most of this group. The flip of these points is that while Hill’s snap count is lower, his presence on the field more often means the play is designed for him to touch the football, therefore negating the snap count disadvantage. And yes, seven games with five or fewer points is rough, but George Kittle had six such instances. It’s a positional hazard. Lastly, three of Hill’s four touchdown runs were of the goal-line variety. He had three one-yard touchdown runs, and one that came from 20 yards out. It’s a stretch to call Hill the “goal line back,” but he’s clearly a player they’re comfortable running with when they’re knocking on the door. Hill also poses the threat of throwing the ball when they’re on the doorstep too. This article doesn’t mean go draft Hill as a Top 5 TE. It does, however, show that maybe instead of burning a mid-round pick on a “safer” TE, Hill is giving you a higher ceiling than those options with similar variance and affording you an extra crack at a breakout RB or WR.