On the Move: Breaking Down Kirk Cousins on the Falcons
Kirk Cousins is a bit of a Rorschach test for fantasy managers in that how you feel about him really has a lot to do with how you build teams. For some, he’s a steady hand that can be the finishing touch on a team that’s strong throughout with above-average skill position depth due to not overspending at QB. For others, he’s an immobile pocket passer whose ceiling is capped, and who needs to put up very gaudy passing numbers to compete with higher-drafted peers. Should joining the Atlanta Falcons shift our opinion of Cousins’ ceiling?
It's true that in modern fantasy football, having a QB who doesn’t run is a disadvantage. Some players are able to keep up for the most part – think Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes – but even they can be letdowns, as they were in 2023. Burrow was done in by injury, but Mahomes’ fantasy struggles had a lot to do with the stripping down of his receiving corps and the aging of his superstar TE. Cousins is now moving on from arguably the top WR in football, so how can Atlanta be an improvement?
Well, while Atlanta doesn’t have Justin Jefferson, they do have an ascendant receiver in Drake London and an overall group that should keep Cousins’ production from dropping. Bijan Robinson is an elite pass catcher out of the backfield, Darnell Mooney is a sneaky good deep threat, and Rondale Moore is an explosive playmaker with whom the Falcons can get creative. And they also have TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a dud since a 1,000-yard rookie season, but who has also dealt with Arthur Smith’s bizarre game plans. Cousins is also going to operate behind an offensive line that ranked fourth in the NFL in pass blocking per PFF after having a big season behind Minnesota’s third-ranked unit.
Players who profile like Cousins need to put up huge passing yardage numbers and be prolific touchdown throwers. Cousins has long checked the yardage box, throwing for 4,000+ yards in 7 of last nine seasons, and pacing for nearly 5,000 last year through eight games. Cousins has also become a consistently efficient TD pass thrower, posting a 5.8% or higher TD rate four of last five seasons. Cousins had tossed 29 or more TD passes in each of the last three seasons before 2023, when he was on pace for 38. Now the Falcons threw the ball the eighth-fewest times (530) in 2023, while the Vikings threw it the fourth-most (631), but the Falcons also have a whole new regime, with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson being plucked from the Sean McVay coaching tree. If he’s anything like McVay, the offense will be humming, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Top 5 volume for Cousins as the Rams were middle of the pack in attempts.
Ultimately, the total package of Atlanta’s skill group is exciting, and Cousins may well have a fine year. But he is entering his age-36 season coming off a torn Achilles, and has to learn a new offense with all new pass-catchers. As a veteran, he’ll likely be fine in this regard, but it’s not enough to boost him up over his pocket passing peers like Burrow, Mahomes, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott. He doesn’t have the ceiling of those guys, nor does he necessarily have the youth in his favor like Tua Tagovailoa or Trevor Lawrence. Cousins, in Atlanta, is the same as he’s ever been. For some, he’s a steady hand that can be the finishing touch on a team that’s strong throughout with above-average skill position depth due to not overspending at QB. For others, he’s an immobile pocket passer whose ceiling is capped, and who needs to put up very gaudy passing numbers to compete with higher-drafted peers. For me, I’ll count myself in the camp of considering him a high-end streaming QB.