The Most Confusing Player At Every Position Per ADP

All of the players below have been discussed as part of their team previews, but ADP can shift from then until now, which is the biggest draft weekend of the offseason. Below, I’ll discuss the most confusing player at each position per ADP. These are all very talented players whom I’m not totally out on at their current ADPs, but whose range of outcomes is so vast that picking them is anxiety-inducing. When you’re staring them down at the Draft, you feel like you don’t know what to do. I’ll try to assist.

All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns (ADP: 84)

Watson is currently going as the QB10 off the board, and while that seems very reasonable for a player with his accomplishments in the NFL, it still feels tough to pull the trigger. QBs are gaining value this season as the elite signal callers separated themselves from the pack in 2022, making the typical “wait on QB” wisdom seem obsolete. Watson is, in theory, a way to bridge the two realities; he’s going later than the elite players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but he’s also performed on par with them in the past. Except…the pas was 2020. That season saw Watson throw for 4,823 yards, and 33 touchdowns and rush for 444 yards (27.8 per game) and three touchdowns. But it’s been two full seasons since we’ve seen him be elite, including missing the entire 2021 campaign.

Watson returned last season and played six games, but only went 3-3, tanking the value of several skill players who had been thriving with Jacoby Brissett. Of course, rust was a factor. But some of the play was so poor it is reasonable to wonder if the former lock Top 5 QB is gone. Watson ranked just 35th per PFF, averaged a career worst (by a country mile) 183.7 yards per game, and completed less than 60% of his passes. Cleveland made an effort to support Watson, going out and trading for WR Elijah Moore whose mediocre stats don’t do justice to his actual play in two seasons with the Jets, as well as letting go of Kareem Hunt and fully turning their backfield over to the superior Nick Chubb. While I don’t believe that Watson’s horrific showing last year can be completely written off to rust, it’s equally difficult to believe that he just lost his talent like a Monstar snuck into his home while he was suspended.

There are intriguing players in this range, and other QBs going after pick No. 84 that offer greater security but a little less ceiling (Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins) or a similar ceiling with even greater risk (Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson). So while Watson can certainly provide massive value at this ADP, I’d pass on him. I’d rather assume similar risk with Richardson at pick No. 111 or Tua at No. 93.

Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (ADP: 60)

Williams was a disastrous high pick last season, caught up in a befuddling time share with Melvin Gordon in a putrid Broncos offense led by Nathaniel Hackett. And that was before a bomb basically imploded inside his knee, ending his season after just four games. He’s come back miraculously fast from a severe knee injury, proving his readiness by not just practicing, but getting into preseason action. That has caused his ADP to jump, as folks are now certain he’ll be suited up in Week 1 and ready to benefit from the Sean Payton bump. But there are questions for me, and not just about the injury.

First and foremost, playing, and being himself are two different things. Williams is unlikely to immediately handle a bell cow workload for Denver, especially when they spent some coin on Samaje Perine this offseason to be a capable backup and passing downs back. Then, there’s the matter of what he’s done on the field when healthy. Williams has never had the backfield to himself, but while he passes the eye test on the field, his production isn’t exactly eye-popping. As a rookie he averaged 4.4 yards per carry, 53.1 yards per game and scored seven total touchdowns. Through four games in 2022, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry, 51 yards per game and hadn’t scored any touchdowns. Of course, his numbers would rise with greater volume and he’ll absolutely be the lead back in 2023, even if he doesn’t dominate the touches. But this wasn’t some freakishly efficient guy, so perhaps the hype needs to be tamed just a tad.

There was one nugget hidden in the 2022 dumpster fire though, and that was 22 targets in just four games. Williams was a contributor in the passing game as a rookie, and last season he caught four receptions per game for 19 yards. With Payton running the show, the offense has to improve, and Williams could be leaned on in that capacity with Denver’s WR corps being ravaged by injuries to Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Williams’ rushing usage will likely be limited at the outset of the season, but targets are worth more than carries, and that type of usage could allow him to get in space more easily. I don’t view Williams as a slam dunk at this ADP, but the prospect of increased passing game usage is exciting and I believe he can return value at No. 60.

Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 85)

If volume is king, Hollywood Brown should be drafted way ahead of pick No. 85. Brown spent his first three seasons in a very low-volume passing offense with the Ravens, scoring 15 touchdowns in his first two seasons, maximizing opportunity, and then breaking out in his third year for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. He was shipped to Arizona, and for the first six games he operated as the WR1 with DeAndre Hopkins suspended. In that span, Brown averaged 7.2 receptions, 80.8 yards and scored three times, while only falling below 68 receiving yards once in Week 1. He then got hurt, and his numbers dropped off significantly with Hopkins back in the lineup.

Hopkins was let go this offseason, so Brown is back as the alpha. Easy peasy right? Not quite. Brown is not a traditional WR1, and he benefitted greatly from the rushing threat provided by Kyler Murray. Teams had to play zone vs. Murray, which allowed Brown to go nuts. He has always been a premier zone beater, and 2022 was no exception as he turned in an 82.1% success rate putting him in the 81st percentile of NFL receivers per Reception Perception. Murray is not healthy to begin the season, there’s no clear timetable for a return, and with the Cardinals appearing to be tanking for the top pick, Murray may never see the field in 2023. Josh Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune are fighting to start, and neither of them is keeping a defensive coordinator up at night with their legs. Brown is far less effective vs. man coverage, so he could be facing less advantageous looks, and drawing some of the NFL’s least valuable targets based on the QB. Not awesome, and not a player I’m excited about adding to my team when players like Khalil Herbert, Jahan Dotson and AJ Dillon are going right behind him. The upside of Brown is tremendous, but so much can go wrong.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons (ADP: 64)

Pitts’ ADP has dropped significantly from last season, but it’s still pretty high for a player who has scored three touchdowns in two seasons and totaled an eye-popping (not for positive reasons) 356 receiving yards last year (10 games). A lot of excuses can be made for Pitts not making any impact at all for fantasy managers last season. The Falcons ran the ball more than any team in the NFL, and they also had one of the NFL’s worst QB situations. Marcus Mariota ranked 28th per PFF, earning a 66.3 grade (62.7 passing) before giving way to Desmond Ridder who graded out significantly worse. While that’s all fair, and while his physical talent is undeniable and on its own could be enough to justify this ADP, what’s changed?

The coaching staff remains in place, and seems to have tripled down on their run-first approach by burning a first round pick on stud RB Bijan Robinson out of Texas. Ridder is also entering the season as the starter, and per Derik Klassen of Reception Perception, Ridder displayed “ghastly” adjusted accuracy. Per the breakdown, Ridder only succeeded on 33.3% of his passes beyond 15 yards, an area where we’re hoping Pitts will live in order to be efficient with limited volume. Pitts also will have to contend with teammate Drake London for targets and red zone opportunities. Pitts is basically a TE in name only, functioning much more as a big-bodied receiver. That’s also London’s game, and by every metric and regular counting stat London was simply better. The ADP on Pitts is no longer egregious like in 2022, but it’s still a big risk because the floor is so low. Most other TEs with Pitts’ production would’ve been dropped last year without his name. His rep has taken a hit, but he’s still got enough cache that managers will stick it out with him to the point that it's damaging if he starts slow. The only way to avoid that scenario is to not draft him at all.