2023 Team Previews Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Jerry Jeudy, WR (ADP: 57): Jeudy arrived in the NFL with a lot of hype, and he’s flashed some incredible talent, but in three seasons Jeudy’s never caught 70 passes, never hit 1,000 yards and set a career-high last year for touchdowns at six, hardly a staggering number. He dealt with poor QB play for his first two seasons, and the Broncos thought they fixed the problem by adding Russell Wilson. Based on his season-long numbers, that did not address the issue, although a deeper look does offer promise.

Jeudy went for 65+ yards in five of Denver’s final six games, eclipsed 100 yards twice and mixed in a three-touchdown explosion vs. the Chiefs. He saw six or more targets in five of those games, and established himself as Wilson’s clear primary target. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Jeudy came into the league with a reputation as a pro-ready route technician, and posted below-average success rates almost across the board except for out routes, per Reception Perception. While Jeudy was solid vs. man coverage (70.6% success), he ranked in the fifth percentile vs. zone, which was an area that he was expected to crush defenses on Day 1. He’ll likely lead the Broncos in targets, and marked improvement from Wilson should be enough for Jeudy to be a viable WR2. But I don’t really see the upside beyond that from him, and this ADP builds in a higher ceiling than I believe he has.

Javonte Williams, RB (ADP: 66): Williams’ 2022 was an unmitigated disaster. Before he blew out his knee four games in, Williams was being grossly underused by Denver’s horrendous coaching staff and he managed only 204 yards and no touchdowns on only 11.8 attempts per game. He had been sharing work with Melvin Gordon, who wound up being cut after Williams was already ruled out for the year. Coming off a horrendous knee injury, I am wary of trusting Williams as a critical part of my fantasy team. He’s a talented player, but even as a rookie he didn’t necessarily show extreme efficiency, and now I’m not convinced he’s going to have a three-down workhorse role for a while, if at all, this season. Having Sean Payton as the new head coach is undoubtedly a positive for his development, but in redraft leagues I am simply too spooked by his injuries regardless of positive camp reports.

Samaje Perine, RB (ADP: 104): Perine is one of the better backup RBs in football, which is surprising because he’d been a plodding, unexciting player for the first three years of his career until he transformed in Cincinnati. In three years with the Bengals Perine became a quality pass catcher and a 4.4 yard per carry rusher who, over time, became preferable to Joe Mixon on passing downs. He moved on to Denver, where his skill set looked like it’d be very valuable especially if he was a starter while Williams came back from injury. But Williams seems to be way ahead of schedule in his recovery, and likely to be on the field in Week 1 even if he’s not going full bore.

That’s terrible news for Perine’s viability as a fantasy starter. In fact, if Williams is active in Week 1, you can’t play Perine. This ADP should drop as we approach Draft Day, and Perine is a worthwhile handcuff for Williams managers if that’s your thing, but I do not see standalone value.

**Courtland Sutton, WR (ADP: 113): Sutton’s carcass has been left on the side of the road by fantasy managers it seems, with his ADP dropping him to WR46 while we all remain pretty high on Jeudy. Sutton’s 2022 – 64 receptions, 829 yards, two touchdowns – was absolutely a disaster. But why does Jeudy’s terrible 2022 get a pass and Sutton’s doesn’t? He dealt with all the same QB and scheme issues as Jeudy, and he was still at 13 yards per catch. His game has always been about working downfield and doing damage that way so he figures to be less consistent on a weekly basis, but going off ADPs there’s no question that Sutton has more value than Jeudy does.

Greg Dulcich, TE (ADP: 120): Dulcich is currently being treated as a borderline TE1 (he’s drafted as the TE13), and I have doubts that Denver can foster enough targets for him to achieve the status of a season-long starter right now. He had a few nice games, and did receive regular looks from Wilson, but failed to crack 50 yards seven times and only scored two touchdowns on the season. He graded out as PFF’s No. 41 TE, which isn’t great, and he’s also got competition in the form of free agent acquisition Adam Trautman and in-house TE Albert Okuegbunam. There are some TEs going after Dulcich that have better metrics, potentially better QBs, and far easier paths to targets.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Russell Wilson, QB (ADP: 138): Wilson was among fantasy football, and real life football’s biggest failures in 2022. The signs of decline that started showing in Seattle became glaring, neon, Vegas-style billboards. He finished with fewer than 4,000 yards for the second straight season, averaged fewer than 235 yards for the second straight year, and threw a career-worst 16 touchdown passes. It’s been noted that Nathaniel Hackett was not a good head coach, and his tenure led to disasters all over this roster. It’s unlikely that Wilson is just a terrible QB now, but it’s more than fair to acknowledge his prime is behind him. Wilson has always thrived on efficiency, not volume; his efficiency cratered last season as his TD rate was chopped nearly in half, and it’s been low, for his standards, for three of the last four campaigns. Wilson doesn’t run much anymore these days either, so this ADP is about right. It’s strange to see Russell Wilson slumming it with the streamers, but that is where he belongs in 2023.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Marvin Mims, WR (ADP: 223): Mims probably is the best value of anyone on this team, because he’s essentially free right now and unfortunate medical issues have cleared his path to playing time. Tim Patrick tore his Achilles already, and KJ Hamler was released due to a heart condition. The seas have parted for Mims to step right into Hamler’s role as a field stretcher, which Mims is very well suited for. Unlike Sutton, who doesn’t separate and just bodies DBs for his big plays, Mims beat man more than 70% of the time at Oklahoma and averaged 20.2 yards per catch. He’s small, so he struggles vs. press, and for a small guy he was surprisingly poor vs. zone (32nd percentile). This just means Mims probably doesn’t have the ceiling to be an actual primary receiver for this team. It does mean that he can offer spike games though, so he should be on radars as WR depth for deep leagues.